SQM View: Risk of 20 to 30% fall from peak for Sydney Melbourne by 2020

Mate, it's scary how exciting it is

 

Its scary if one has to sell
its exciting if one is waiting to enter
for the rest its pure entertainment.

 

Got my popcorn

 

Hehe, me too.

 

I’m just happy every second thread is not about how someone made millions using a tiny deposit, equity and borrow/leverage till the cows come home.
I feel as if there’s not as much happening on the forums but the discussion is far more balanced and actually informative/experienced investors sharing good stuff.
It’s all well and good putting a date on a good time to buy again etc but in all honesty unless we see value (I.e a decent correction) or another catalyst such as lose/easy credit again (unlikely in th next 2 years) I’m not super sure where this growth will come from.

Disclosure: long term property bull
Currently focusing on building a passive income through shares.

 

A particular property is not a good deal just because it is cheap. In my area, the City of Belmont LGA, there have been plenty of cheap development sites in the last couple of years. Some of the prices are down 30% or more from peak. However, cheap does not always equate to value. I have not seen many good deals in that time. Much due diligence is still required and every potential deal examined closely to see if they stack up. Most don't IMO.

So even if Sydney drops 30% across the board doesn't mean every house for sale is going to be a good deal

 

Agree that's why I said 'value' not cheap.
As buffet says, price is what you pay (I.e expensive/cheap) value is what you get.
If it's cheap it's cheap for a reason.
In the areas on my watch list even with a 30% drop they will still not be 'cheap'.

 

@TheSackedWiggle
You must have massive wrinkles from the jaw dropping shock given present day property market trajectories.


I.......toooooowl......y....a.....

 

Haha, you won't see the doom & gloomers again until property is back on the nose.

 

Feeling whiplash from how fast the market swung around since 2017.

 

I honestly don't know what they get out of it...They aint gettin any wealth...so why bother be a doom and gloomer all the time.... its gotta be so boring and mentally taxing .... gawd i'd be so depressed if I lived my life like that.

 

technically they can make money by short the banks hahaha.

 

I'm sure all they're making is maney, not money.

 

Not scary, didn't happen and the frothy segments are even frothier. I keep reading about how we are in a housing bubble and have been since 2000. Economic bubbles do not last 20 years. That's not how bubbles work.

People either choose to invest or find excuses not to. Each of these will have outcomes.

 

I think it's that IF they are right (which they never are), they can gloat at how all of us have done so poorly.

 

Such an ugly way to live....

 

It does happen both ways - there are some fair weather friends that disappear when the market indicators project downwards.

They are coming back now - which is a good sign.

 

Not sure if your implying myself but I spent months away learning a new skill which is currency trading and trolled different forums. I now also trade regularly. During that time I was actively engaging with forum members off line. Also the pervading negativity/pessimisim on the forum during that time was getting too much for my liking. Anytime this forum becomes overly negative ( not saying contrarian views, I think that's important), I'm out.

Just assuming your implying myself ,if not, all the same

 

Thats me! The current good time reminded me of Property Chat and it's members so I came back to see how everyone is reacting to it. Been inactive for most of last year as I have been busy with life, work and 2 younglings. Maxed out finance also played part.

 

Man one is enough for me.... don't know how you guys do multiple....