SQM View: Risk of 20 to 30% fall from peak for Sydney Melbourne by 2020

SASH!!! Brother from another mother!

Poll: How much do you think the Sydney market will correct

Seems you and 22.9% also agree on 20% over the next 2 years. Myself included. Although...

As the thread comments read, "but which market", which is a very very valid point. Ask anyone from The Shire.

Sydney Is a biiig place.
"Bigger than the moon?"
No, not that big.

With people from far far away.
"Aliens!"
Well, yes. I suppose you can say that.

Not entirely sure what truth I can't handle.
The absolute irrelevance of a UBS article, or the fact that I have never disagreed with a generic 20% drop in Sydney since I started loosing hair.

Haven't bought anything since 2012.
Stopped building in 2015.
Yet, still dealing and wheeling and making monies.
Something about cycles, and markets within markets. I dunno.

Which type of property investing should I not do? Because there's dozens of ways which work at different points in the market.

 

Ya need to get some track record.....

The best time to buy in Sydney/Wollongong/Newcaslte was up to 2014...I stopped in 2012.

Best time to buy in Melbourne was 2012 to 2016....I stopped in 2017....but that was because i found some market inconsistencies.

Had I bought more in NSW...my land tax would be 20k....it is now just under 10k..so happy with this. You need to manage CF also. So it is not as straight forward.

Dems how dehey roll son............if it was so easy we would all be multi-millionaires......experience is the best teacher...but to get experience you have tp "Just Do It"!!!

 

Yeah but Warren Buffet quote, cycles, markets within markets...

 

Maybe....but can't see markets within markets in Sydney......all will be revealed in 2019.

Will be great buying from late 2019....

 

Ha yeah that was my attempt at sarcasm. I actually agree Syd and Melb will crater across the board, though some more than others.

I’ll step in prob late 2019 unless poop is still hitting the fan. I’m sure I’ll time it wrong since I’ve had a bit of luck previously.

 

What's the conspiracy here?
You can either hold, or you cannot.

A great majority can.
Either they were never at max borrowing, or they just have to tighten their belts.

Most 'investors' only have a couple of properties.
The ones with larger portfolios generally have other income sources.

The retirees with low incomes likely have a lot of capital, so can sell off as they need.
The very few that can't handle it. Well. Find the money, negotiate with bank, get a second job, or spontaneously combust.



How about you though, how does it affect you.
As @euro73 hast stated in a previous thread. Add this into your calculations.
Most would have already.

Buy-and-hold would mean they were saving a deposit for their next property.
That money in their off-set will go into their mortgage. Eventually they can refinance. Business as usual. May take a little longer. Well, I thought I'd be married with kids by 30. Life.

Developers/Sub-divisions/Other non buy-and-hold strategies, they would be flipping properties anyways, so wouldn't make a difference.

Give it a few months, some take longer. People adjust, life goes on.

So you're saying, back-packer hostels, and caravan parks, will also drop as much?
What about industrial buildings, or commercial properties?
Established Middle Cove will have the same volatility as Ropes Crossing?
All property will drastically plummet?

"Some more than others"... That's what she said. Literally. We aren't disagreeing. Like, at all.

"Cycles, markets within markets, world is round"

@MTR got any room in that bunker?

 

Anyone who claims this forum was expecting a ~20% correction is a liar. The idea of it was ridiculed by most up until mid this year.

 

I never said it BUT I prayed for it every night .

I just wanted property to become affordable again .

Now praying for 40% .

But don’t blame me WHEN it happens

 

I think it's more that it's irrelevant to most people on here

 

It’ll be good for the grandkids

 

So the mention of the possibility spurs furious denial, but when proven wrong and it comes to fruition it's irrelevant...

 

First time in history house prices are falling at lowest interest rates and full employment.
Assuming future performance based on the past is not always the best way to invest. Look at the Australian stock exchange, gone nowhere in 10 yrs. Warren buffet used to say buy the index and hold, look how that turned out for investors on ASX 200

 

That’s how I imagine the govt to look at it anyway. I don’t see any incentive for them to keep prices in Werribee and Mt Druitt inflated. You gotta have your cheap areas so that the plebs don’t know whether they’re getting f***d or not.

 

Looking at the Index don’t show dividends. Asx index fund would have returned 8.5% (gross) p/a over the past 10 years.

 

The lost decade for Australian shares: but don't forget the income! | Plato Investment Management
About 4.5 not 8.5

 

I didn't see furious denial - but perhaps I was hanging out in the wrong section

 

Investment Products

Actual fund.....

 

Scary? Or exciting?

In my area on Perth, prices overshot by a long way on development sites. I didn't even start looking until prices were down 30% from peak. There is still a lot of overpriced dross on the market but there have been some bloody good deals in the last 2 years. If the market didn't correct then those deals would never have happened.

As a buyer, you should celebrate a correction, not let it scare you.

 

Nothing Wrong with Index funds over 10 years.

Vas Early 40s 10 years ago

Vas 10 years on Mid High 70s SO 90% appreciation

Lets not forget Dividends?