South Australia's 2022 state election.

Discussion in 'Politics' started by ollidrac nosaj, 20th Mar, 2022.

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  1. ollidrac nosaj

    ollidrac nosaj Well-Known Member

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    An absolute drubbing for Libs in SA, anyone who believes this was decided on state issues is delusional. Bring on the the fed election!
     
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  2. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    It was a clear cut victory, and it certainly puts the feds on notice. But anybody who thinks that a state election was based on federal issues gives no credibility to the intelligence of the SA voter.

    Many issues come into the mix in an election. People voted according to what they saw. They saw the local politicians and state government performance as well as the federal government, though looking from the outside, it would appear that federal issues were more in the background. Malinauskas appears to have an excellent public image. There was anger about SA opening up their borders to Covid. There have been internal problems in the Liberal party.

    Federal issues do play a big part. But the election was fought on state issues, as it should be. State and federal governments are responsible for different things, and voters I believe are largely intelligent enough to differentiate.
     
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  3. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    We're a pretty politician savvy group on here, so can (and do) differentiate between state and federal ... but the average voter historically doesn't have the same ability. Most couldn't tell you what the state versus federal pays for or supplies or does - which is why the private/public school funding and Medicare/ hospital costs come up for debate so often
     
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  4. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    Don't get me wrong. I think that the coalition will not do well in the federal election.

    But an election often has much less to do with policies, and more about headlines and personalities.

    Malinauskas had a strong personal following. Pictures of him in the swimming pool looking ripped didn't do him any harm. He did very well against Marshall in a debate on the last week of the poll. He was leading the polls as the preferred premier.

    The headlines were about SA opening up just as Omicron hit, insufficient resources for dealing with increased cases of covid, and about ambulances having to wait outside hospitals due to these resources.

    There definitely was some fed influence. ScoMo was due to have campaigned in the weeks before the election, but couldn't do so because of his Covid. If he had campaigned, the Libs could well have done worse.
     
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  5. Baker

    Baker Well-Known Member

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    The ambulance ramping issue precedes the pandemic by a long way - and is significant for the SA public.
    The covid management was fairly on point to be fair, had bilateral support and SA had very very few days in lockdown for two years. Omicron did hit just as SA re-opened, but had a fairly mild impact overall.
    The watering down of the state ICAC (or whatever it's called here) didn't sit well and was right at the time the Fed and NSW ICAC issues were forefront.

    But Federal issues undoubtedly had a strong influence. It's hard to subconsciously dissociate from that gurning buffoon ScoMo, and this was the SA public's first chance to vent.

    Might (but unlikely) have been different or less severe swing if the federal election had been held before the state one and the public had had the chance to swing the axe.
     
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  6. Traveller99

    Traveller99 Well-Known Member

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    The Libs winning in 2018 was a historical anomaly. The ALP winning is a return to business as usual for the state.
     
  7. D.T.

    D.T. Specialist Property Manager Business Member

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    Caused by previous alp govt shutting repat and closing ER at Modbury et al. Covid stretched the demand and put the issue under spotlight.
     
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  8. D.T.

    D.T. Specialist Property Manager Business Member

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    Bracing for them to ruin tenancy laws like the ALP govts have done in a couple of other states already
     
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  9. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    What a hideous precedent for Australia. Australians respond really well to relentless fear campaigns and vote for politicians who, " keep us safe".

    Two observations from the SA election.
    1. SA unions won the election with relentless negativity about the Liberal government.
    The electoral commission ruled that the Ambulance union Ad was incorrect and misleading. It was significantly damaging.

    2. So many years of ALP government in SA has created a welfare mindset. Voters will follow the party which promises the biggest hand-outs.
     
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  10. ollidrac nosaj

    ollidrac nosaj Well-Known Member

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    This is a drop in the ocean counter of relentless negativity from the Murdoch/Costello media.

    Something Morrison knows well, and expect cash hand outs to be announced shortly.

    This would have been a tighter contest if held after the fed election. I think people are under estimating the pent up anger for Morrison in the electorate atm.
     
    Last edited: 21st Mar, 2022
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  11. twobobsworth

    twobobsworth Well-Known Member

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    Apparently when albo wins we're going going to have lower house prices, lower costs of living, there will be no bullying or sexism in Canberra and it will be the end of global warming. We'll then watch him walk on water.
     
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  12. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    The other major difference from the 2018 election was the collapse of SA Best after Nick Xenophon left the party. SA Best picked up close to 20% of the legislative council in 2018. So far SA Best has 1.1% in 2022 with former SA Best voters overwhelmingly changing their vote to Labor/Greens.

    There have been some massive swings to Labor.
    South Australia Election 2022 Results
    upload_2022-3-21_11-20-50.png

    In the rare swings to Liberal they were in seats that were already Labor strongholds, such as Playford and Ramsey.

    upload_2022-3-21_11-24-17.png

    upload_2022-3-21_11-24-43.png



    .
     
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  13. Tattler

    Tattler Well-Known Member

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    Just curiously, did Liberal do such a bad job for the last few years, compared to ALP for 16 years before that? From afar I thought Steven Marshall was doing OK but I am sure I am missing something....
     
  14. Baker

    Baker Well-Known Member

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    Antony Green did a decent election preview that summed up the positions well.
    Election Preview

    Except the bit about the hung parliament...
     
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  15. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    6 months ago the Liberals would have won the state election. The mood started changing in November once borders opened and restrictions remained. The public health system in SA is shocking. There's no doubt that Liberals inherited a poor health system, but after 4 years people expect improvement and there was very little of that- at least with the health system.

    Marshall was probably also damaged by Scott Morrison and the whole perception that he has a problem with women. You'd like to think voters would differentiate between state and federal, but most voters don't seem to.

    Personally I was surprised. The polls had forecasted this, but recently polling hasn't always been that accurate.
     
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