Sources for future jobs growth

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by adam duckworth, 15th Oct, 2017.

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  1. adam duckworth

    adam duckworth Well-Known Member

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    hey guys and gals,

    Got an easy question,
    would just like to know where you all get your information on future jobs growth, or how you source/predict it...
    thanks
    Ducky
     
  2. JL1

    JL1 Well-Known Member

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    I take a very subjective approach as i dont believe most forecasts ive seen. When i do need data though, there is a government made 5 year forecast that is released every november. Im on my phone now but when im next at a PC il try find a link for you.

    My usual approach though is to look at state gdp by source and assess what each industry is doing. For example, the infrastructure industry in victoria has added massive amounts of jobs lately, so if i predict that by 2020 if the gdp contribution of infrastructure falls by a $ amount, then jobs will fall accordingly. I then look for a generalised stat for the industry, such as X jobs per $1m spent to gauge how big the fall will be.

    I do this only for the biggest sources of gdp, typically infrastructure, government spending, gst royalties, etc. I then also make a subjective assessment of retail sales, as they are a huge source of spending and jobs. Remembering that its all about the change from now, and not historical performance or total $ or anything.

    Theres no point trying to chase exact numbers with jobs because even the ABS employment data is a best estimate. Just know that certain sectors add more than others for each $ spent, and watch spending in the biggest sectors which have driven jobs growth. Often the ones which surge the hardest aslo fall the hardest (mining construction for example..)
     
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  3. adam duckworth

    adam duckworth Well-Known Member

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    @JDP1 thanks for the reply Mate, seems like you do very extensive, in depth research on the subject. I'll take it all into account and give it a go thanks again :)
     
  4. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    um..i think your thanking the wrong person. @JDP1 is too busy marketing Brisbane to do in depth research on your subject.
     
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  5. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    I think you mean JL1
     
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  6. adam duckworth

    adam duckworth Well-Known Member

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    Oops sorry clicked on the wrong person @JL1 ;)
     
  7. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    There are various reports and outlooks eg from recruitment companies that know hiring intentions of their clients.
    Various other sources such as govt infrastructure spending and jobs growth sd s result ( this is public domain as it is govt). Similarly private investment, can see their investment reports and forward looking statements. Quite a few other ways as well.
     
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  8. adam duckworth

    adam duckworth Well-Known Member

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    Beauty cheers mate, don't have the laptop with me but I'll have a geez tomorrow, any websites or links you could show me? @JDP1
     
  9. petewargent

    petewargent Buyer's Agent

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    Great question. Depends if you're looking at macro- or micro-, but...

    Some good macro statistics to look at:

    -ABS capital expenditure (actual & planned investment)
    -ABS jobs vacancies by state & industry
    -SEEK employment report
    -NAB Business Survey etc.

    Interestingly jobs vacancies in NSW have boomed to the highest level in history for any state or territory - of course, some vacancies get taken up by those currently employed, but it suggests that the Greater Sydney unemployment rate could be heading down to just 4pc.

    And then there are industry-specific data e.g. rising commodity prices, positive mineral exploration & drilling reports etc. tend to be good lead indicators for resources construction & mining jobs.

    Building approvals for resi & non-resi sectors tend to be good lead indicators for construction employment, & so on.

    For micro, well, how long is a piece of string? Government infrastructure reports, ASX releases, Annual Reports, general scuttlebutt...
     
    Last edited: 16th Oct, 2017
  10. JL1

    JL1 Well-Known Member

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    Here's the page i was talking about. there are 4 document links, the one i look at most is "2017 industry projections - five years to May 2022". it breaks down the government jobs forecast by industry and region. Don't get too carried away with specific number change, but keep in mind this is likely a contributor to government policy when they are deciding which industries to focus on.

    Welcome to the Labour Market Information Portal.

    Edit - just noticed the regions report for 2017 hasn't been published yet. Pretty sure its around 18th November that it usually is.
     
    Last edited: 16th Oct, 2017
  11. adam duckworth

    adam duckworth Well-Known Member

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    @petewargent @JL1

    Absolute Legends guys! Thanks for all that :D definitely seems a bit more complicated than I first thought, but I'm all for learning, I'm gonna get on the lappy tonight and do some research, let the fun begin :)
     
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  12. craigc

    craigc Well-Known Member

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    Also look at total migration, both from o/S and interstate. Larger population means more services, food & restaurants, schools etc. more people = more demand for goods & services = more jobs.
     
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