So we have 2.15M in USD.

Discussion in 'Investment Strategy' started by GoldCoastBound, 18th Mar, 2020.

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  1. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Another interest rate drop predicted in April will add downward pressure

    Until corona is contained AUD will continue go south
     
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  2. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I don't follow VAS but just had a look at both charts CBA --VAS and both are on the downward trend and we may be only half way there but everyone within this site will see the charts different ..

    We may be at the start of the stage where it's more then noise one can see the mood swings with the prices they now pay reflects some investors attempts to work out which of three all very different equilibria that the global economy will land on as a massive amount of businesses will go bust within the next six months and as like every other times the re-bound with a company like CBA once the global mood has settled will be the same
    imho..i put a order for one month today for 10000 at $35.00 just have to wait and see..imho..
     
  3. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    Long China
    Short west
     
  4. Leeroy93

    Leeroy93 Well-Known Member

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    On balance I'd say that's a good shout. I think following the headlines is probably a good way to judge overall sentiment that will drive the flow of funds. Good stories like China coming out of the ashes will be latched upon.
     
  5. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    They have over $3 million AUD to invest. They don't need to take stupid risks.
     
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  6. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Its in free fall
    AUD 57
     
  7. Paul@PAS

    Paul@PAS Tax, Accounting + SMSF + All things Property Tax Business Plus Member

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    In USD its not protected at all and exposed to exchange variance (the CGT benefit is taxable!!) If you had $2.15m USD at 62c and its now 55c the taxable profit on the currency realisation is $441,350. A strategy around realisation of this gain and the tax impact and the risk of the LOSS of this gain is something for considering. Thats an extra $207K of tax But it locks in the profit windfall.

    The deposit guarantee is a trivial issue implemented in the depths of the GFC which is something it promises that isnt actually real. There is no way a single deposit could be lost without our economy and currency falling to $0. Fiji could buy the country. Its like assuming zombies will take over the planet. Or apes will rise up and take over.
     
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  8. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    How is that a stupid risk?
    Going long is equally smart? Your comments amuse me
     
  9. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    China will come out on top of this massively. I’m looking to buy into construction and materials stocks in China. Need to figure out what’s on the Hkex
     
  10. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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  11. iloveqld

    iloveqld Well-Known Member

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    Can we set up a pc partnership venturing from property to dunny roll... :D
    We should name our forum dunnyrollchat.com.au

     
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  12. Beano

    Beano Well-Known Member

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    If the US properties are falling perhaps it is a good opportunity to buy a condo in Manhattan.
    US$2.15m would be enough for a deposit
    "You buy will never buy cheaper "
     
  13. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    If someone doesn't know what they are doing them shorting the market is stupid. But you already know that.

    How much could they lose if they don't know what they are doing?

    Your comments are reckless.
     
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  14. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    AUD 55.5
    At this rate I would be waiting..... calling 50 now
     
  15. GoldCoastBound

    GoldCoastBound Well-Known Member

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    Yes, its unbelievable this drop
     
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  16. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Note: prices will be out of date by the time you read this.

    This is what I would look at if I had $3 million to invest in the market. Timing will be tricky because it looks like the market is still falling and no one knows where the bottom is. I wouldn't dump $3 million into the market until it shows some signs of stability.

    VAS - ASX300, trading at $62, 52 week high $91
    Vanguard Australian Shares Index (VAS) is an exchange traded fund seeking to provide investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance of the S&P/ASX 300 Index (the Underlying Index). VAS pays partly franked dividends with a dividend return of between 4% and 5% per year. It's a reliable earner.

    VGS - MSCI international shares, trading at $71, 52 week high $88
    Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (VGS) provides exposure to approximately 1,500 large-cap and mid-cap companies listed on the exchanges of the world's major economies excluding Australia. I would select this for international exposure.

    VAP - Australian property, trading at $55, 52 week high $98
    Vanguard Australian Property Securities Index ETF (VAP) provides investors with the opportunity to invest in a portfolio of Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REITs) listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) across the retail, office, industrial, tourism, and infrastructure sectors. Expect this to take a hammering in the short term but it's been a reliable earner over the long term.

    VGE - Emerging markets, trading at $60, 52 week high $74
    Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Shares ETF (VGE) is an exchange traded fund seeking to track the return of the FTSE Emerging Markets Shares ETF in Australian dollars, before taking into account fees, expenses and tax. VGE provides exposure to approximately 22 emerging market countries across Asia, Latin America, Europe, Africa and the Middle East. It is definitely riskier than my other suggestions.

    I would consider allocating something like this:
    VAS $1,000,000
    VGS $1,000,000
    VAP $800,000
    VGE $200,000
     
  17. GoldCoastBound

    GoldCoastBound Well-Known Member

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    thank you for that great reply Perthguy, much appreciated.

    what would the dividend income look like per year on your suggestions at current prices?

    thanks
     
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  18. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Good question. That is very difficult to tell. You could take a guess based on the last dividend payment. The problem is that in an economic downturn there are some companies that will be smashed. My suggestion is a long term play given you have the funds to ride it out.

    I will do some calcs when I am back at my desk and let you know.
     
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  19. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Based on 2019 dividends. Note that past performance is not a predictor of future performance.

    Code | Amount | Price | Number | Dividend | Income
    VAS | $1,000,000 | $61 | 16,393 | $3.52 | $57,703
    VGS | $1,000,000 | $70 | 14,285 | $1.97 | $28,141
    VAP | $800,000 | $52 | 15,384 | $4.95 | $76,151
    VGE | $200,000 | $59 | 3,389 | $1.47 | $4,982

    Total income: $166,977

    Out of interest, if you bought this portfolio for the 52 week high for each of the above, it would have cost $4,533,448.

    Sources:
    Share Price & Information - ASX
    Share Price & Information - ASX
    Share Price & Information - ASX
    Share Price & Information - ASX

    Fund Details - ETF Watch
    Fund Details - ETF Watch
    Fund Details - ETF Watch
    Fund Details - ETF Watch
     
  20. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    The above does not account for franking credits. Can anyone help with that?
     
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