VIC Similar places to Castlemaine?

Castlemaine, otherwise known as 'Northcote North' is an interesting example of gentrification of the regionals. Some traits include:

• thriving arts culture, music scene & great community
• Just within commute distance of Melbourne (Just over hour to City by PT)
• A lot of young couples who cannot affort to buy in Melbourne have shifted here

I hear that 'Castlemains effect' has spread out to towns like Maldon, Harcourt and Kyneton.

I was wondering if there are any other towns in regional Victoria that have experienced similar shifts in demographics, with the 'alternative city folk' moving in? Or with the whole WFH shift to the regions, if we expect any potential existing regional areas to boom in a similar way to how Castelmaine has over the last decade?

 

Castlemaine is still fairly affordable - median price of vacant land is $250k and 2-bed house @ $470k. Do you think the boom has ended?

 

No, I think there is plenty more to come within Castlemaine.

I am more interested to know where people think the next Castlemaine might be, and if some regions might already be showing signs of gentrfication outside the confines of Metro Melbourne region (as opposed to the typical gentrfication of suburbs like Footscray/Collingwood in the past). In particular, interested in not just generic regional boom predictions, but where a the incoming residents might have a similar demographic to what is happening in Castlemaine.

 

I really haven't looked into this at all, but just off the top of my head, possible contenders could include Trentham, Clunes, Maryborough. I think Daylesford has already gone through this. Clunes has the annual Booktown Festival. Maryborough is quite an aesthetically nice town even though it currently has a large lower socioeconomic demographic - plenty of room for gentrification at some point in time.

 

I see. Basically YoY change of demographic data by suburb could give us the indication.

Such data is not readily available in public unfortunately. May have to wait until the 2021 census in August. Otherwise, ABS will release the 2019-2020 FY Population Change data in late Mar.

 

Trentham, Blackwood, Romsey & Clunes all possible. But not Maryborough. Maybe Broadford & Heathcote

 

Is the giant meat factory still in Castlemaine?

- Andrew

 

Kilmore in the north and Warragul in the east

 

Castlemaine has been known as North Northcote for a while. Woodend, Harcourt, perhaps even Malmsbury also invaded by white collar city dwellers. You're more likely to run into a banker than a farmer in Woodend.

Not many towns mentioned above are within 1-1h30 from the city (esp by Vline) - something that will matter I think as quite a few people will have to go back to the office once or twice a week when things settle down

 

Jakc, here are few suggestions for the rural country feel surbubs within 1-1.5 hour commute from CBD. Warrandyte, Kangaroo Ground, Panton Hill, Hurstbridge, St. Andrews, Yarrambat.

 

Larger view

Did some further investigation:

• WFH 3 days a week.
• Map is selfishly for getting me to my office in North Melbourne, top of King St.
  • However, map still fairly similar for any CBD worker
• My acceptable commute is now within the 1hr - 1hr20 min range
  • Map symbology skewed to this window
• Only want to take VLine/Metro Trains & Trams (or a combo of)
  • Not included buses for my commute out of preference
• Assumption is that to get to/from stations/tram stops = walking at normal pace
  • You could drive/ride to the station at your home address to increase range
• It changes as transit timetables change throughout the morning. I want to get to my office within the 8-9 window.
• Takes into account express routes for Jan 2021

So with this in mind, some potential spots to dig into the listings/demographics (and visit):

• Little River
• Ferntree Gulley
• Lara
• Ballan
• Riddells Creek
• Frankston
• Belgrave

Not quite the regional areas I was expecting, but decided that anything more than 1hr20min commute one-way is my top end limit.

 

Very cool visualisation. What tool did you use to make that?

 

These tools in ArcGIS. I see your thumbnail is a map - similar tools exist for QGIS if thats your flavour.

Had a look at Proppy. Nice work! As a buyer, what I really want (and Domain/RE don't quite offer) is to generate a search area thats not based upon suburbs. I want a wizard interface to ask me my work location(s); my commute time tolerance; if I need to be near schools; etc - it generates me a search area which I can then save and use to send me notifications about upcoming prop listings.

 

Thanks @jakc ! Your feedback has been shared with the team. Proximity to work location is definitely in the pipeline

 

10.5% growth in just the last quarter, but never Maryborough

"This week the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) reported some sensational price growth figures throughout Regional Victoria. In Ballarat the suburb of Redan recorded a quarterly rise of 8.1%, Wendouree 7.5%, Brownhill 8.7% and in Ballarat Central 7.7%. Ararat saw price growth of 4.3% and in Maryborough a whopping 10.5%."​

 

How many sales? Maryborough stats can easily jump about due to low sales volumes

 

I'm not sure, but the high quarterly growth of a lot of previously 'cheap' areas, not only Maryborough, is interesting. Will get more interesting if it keeps its momentum.

 

18.75%+ growth since you posted this, with low vacancy rates, solid yields (nothing under $300 per week unless it's practically unliveable), and a smaller town that's half an hour away which has houses selling for twice as much? Yeah, it's been interesting to say the least.