Signs of a sydney (see ) change ?? What's your take ?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by See Change, 4th May, 2017.

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  1. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    Ok , I'm not saying Sydney is stopping , but ...

    The strength of the Sydney market has continued to surprise everyone .

    Personally I expected the regulatory changes around a year ago to be the trigger to stop the market but that didnt turn out to be the case , though it has changed things .

    I talked to two agents last week . One from Manly reported that since those changes the level of investors had gone from around 40 % to 15 % , but OO's have stepped into the void . He sold a unit one year ago and that would now be worth 100 K more .

    One from Mona Vale said that 2 bedroom Meriton units in Warriewood that were selling for 850 not long ago were now selling for 1050.

    One early indicator I watch is stock on market , care of sqm free data .

    I've just looked at a few suburbs and while some are showing significant increases in stock , eg Epping , others appear to be bottoming Manly , Mona Vale , others are showing a further decrease in stock . One in this catagory in Mt Druitt which end of 2015 had sharply increasing stock levels , but now has dropped significantly since then . Maybe the greater fool principle in action ??

    So Mixed messages .

    When I see something like that I go back to technical analysis fundamentals ( from share trading )

    Mixed messages often indicate the potential for change . Ok, so you don't have to be a rocket scientist to suggest Sydney is close to a top , but for me this is just another brick in the wall .

    Time will tell

    Cliff
     
  2. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    I reckon we're at a top for apartments (That's what you see in regards to Epping stats, 100's coming online soon). Prices for apartments aren't rising anymore and coming off peaks slightly.


    Now this part is a guess... Sydney house market probably peaking within 4-8 months?

    And not sure in terms of prices dropping... I think they'll drop 0-10% 1 year from peak, houses perhaps holding up better than apartments.
    A lot to do with APRA.
     
  3. Ryan_sc

    Ryan_sc Active Member

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    I agree, certainly with regards to the Manly market. I spoke with a sales agent yesterday which operates within the 2mill+ price range and claimed that investor interest has significantly declined over the last 6 months. Of his recent sales, 90%+ would be OO's and this is increasing. That being said, I am aware that a recent apartment project within Manly sold out very quickly, mainly to investors. The price range of this project was $990K starting for 1 bedders, and 2 bedrooms starting from $1.5 million. So there is still a little bit of investor activity within the Manly market, however this is becoming increasingly difficult to find over the $2million price bracket. I envisage the market to flatten over the next 12 months, with a long wait for the next growth stage
     
  4. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Yep it seems the Apron changes have finally managed to slow down Sydney market :p

    This might also go to show that the boom was not so much due to demand/supply as most people claim, but rather due to just easy access to cheap investor financing from the banks.
     
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  5. Tonibell

    Tonibell Well-Known Member

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    If @See Change is wavering - then I out.

    That's enough for me - been waiting for you to call it :)
     
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  6. skater

    skater Well-Known Member

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    I don't know about the top end of the market, but here, in the bottom, we've just sold a very small 2 bed room unit out Campbelltown way. The Agents are all saying that finance is hard to get for the investors, which is nothing new.

    We sold it at the first open. There was a lot of interest. Purchaser could not get finance, so it went back on the market, and sold for a second time at almost $20k more, which was nice. The Agent wanted us to take less for it (as it had sold for less previously, but we said there was more money in it....which there was). The new purchaser is an OO.

    Prices seem to be holding at the lower end (not just for mine), and maybe that's because there's more infrastructure planned for West/Southwest, or maybe those that would normally buy much higher priced properties are now just buying what they CAN at the moment.

    Either way, I was expecting a slow down prior to now, but if prices DO keep pushing, we'll probably put another on the market in the new year. If not, we'll hold. We don't need to sell, but nice to have powder dry for when property is on the nose again.
     
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  7. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    ^^^ This...precisely what I am thinking and what I will be doing. If Sydney push another 10-15% next 12 months, will have some serious thinking. If not, and take a nose dive up to 20%, happy to hold for next 10 years.

    Why would this cycle be any different to any other cycle? well at least this cycle, the boom is a bit longer...
     
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  8. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    P.S. Regarding stock levels, sqm data is very unreliable.
     
  9. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    Syd has not been doing 10% plus anyway.

    Prices have stalled again and slight pull back in couple of places I watch......rates IMO........ cuts push price, raises will drop prices, and guess what, RBA and APRA agree with my thoughts, or vice versa. It is not rocket science.

    When sentiment for the majority change, then we will see if it holds up.
     
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  10. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    Is that the "Syd house price"

    Only in Sydney do old houses appreciate in a never ending skyward trajectory.....
     
  11. pjames

    pjames Well-Known Member

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    Sydney will not drop, it may have a pause for a little bit while investors sort out new strategies but I believe it will soon pick up again rapidly, why, well I won;t double post but read my post in the "blacktown" thread about what the NSW premiere has on her agenda. She also wants to build thousands of high rise apartments all over Sydney and turn it into a massive concrete jungle. She said supply is the key and is a demand denier. She wants "mega immigration", forgot "mass immigration", she wants it quadrupled in the next few years and is pushing the Government to comply with her agenda.
     
    Last edited: 4th May, 2017
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  12. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    Frankly I want this party to be well and truly over.
    However a rocket scientist told me at the pub, rates arn't going anywhere...so either a soft landing, a single digit drop at most in the few years... so I am going to sell my canned sardines and outsource my bunker.
     
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  13. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    Right....just what Dr See Change ordered, a new mass ramping up of apartment builds, what with and from whom, who knows (monopoly money maybe), but that would be a disaster.

    I do not listen much to what politicians say as they are rampant liars for the most part, drunken with self importance and some power.

    She was saying the other day that the levy was moved to rates to make insurance easier for people on tight budgets to obtain, you have to be an utter dunce to swallow this nonsense.

    I guess someone is swallowing somewhere.
     
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  14. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    If your rates are going nowhere then your either rate locked or missing mail :)

    Not kidding.
     
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  15. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    Had a chat with a friend who's an agent and selling the house opposite to us ....

    He said in the last quarter of 2016 , 2/3 of properties were selling well over expectations .

    Now , 90 % are still selling at Auction , but most within expectations .

    He felt the market was now softer and didn't seem to be going up .

    Cliff
     
  16. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    Is that Northern Beaches ? (I did not say that like Miguel :confused:)

    I look at what agents do in the ads too, seems they were using a wider spread where I watch, and some just put the price now. I have seen auctions where the price looked same as if was normal treaty for a while now. Still buyers, but well and truly past pre APRA days IMO.

    Pre APRA if you did a search in one area that is pretty tight held, you may see 1 or 2 ads, now you see many many more, the sale days must be sliding a bit, but as said, there are buyers, they do sell.

    Sentiment could change anytime, the lending changes have to be biting too, I think more rate rises could turn sentiment when combined with RBA not cutting, as I think many expected they would and not in tune enough to realise even if they do it will not be another full passing on of any cut/s.
     
  17. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    Stock is still tight and this is probably the one thing keeping things going to a digree

    Cliff
     
  18. beachgurl

    beachgurl Well-Known Member

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    A few properties are passing in at auction here now and a higher end property sold for less than expected. Supply is starting to increase as sellers are realizing we may have hit the peak of the market. The next few months will be interesting to follow
     
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  19. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    My broker is inundated with people who are desperate to get loans after they have been knocked back by the majors.

    Also...lots of builders who thought they would make a fast buck building duplexes are finding finance has dried up.

    The next cliff is the changes in I/O policy...this the one which will break the camel's back...boon for Perth/Brisbane/Hobart/Adelaide/Geelong/Outer Melbourne as loans are much smaller but a curse for inner Melbourne and Sydney where loans are very high.

    You will see money move to these markets.....I also see unemployment increasing due to increased automation and globalization...if this come to fruition...it could be the perfect storm. The other markets outside Melbourne and Sydney are less impacted by these things.....
     
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  20. Brickbybrick

    Brickbybrick Well-Known Member

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    Make no mistake, this is inevitable, and makes the muppet Gladys' plans for "mega migration" even more ludicrous. To paraphrase Keating, we really do get swill for politicians. :rolleyes:
     
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