ASX Shares Short term COVID-19 opportunities in the stockmarket

@wombat777 noting a potential buyout at Phase II clinical trials, through your research have you been able to estimate timing for this? I would guess another 18months at least?

 

Assume its related to the Qantas announcement

 

They haven't firmed up their plan but they have started to indicate in announcements when trials will start. The MRD trial is very important since it would allow for accelerated FDA approval via the FDA 505(b)(2) pathway ( that basically means historic trials data and Israel trial data helps support application for approval - additional evidence that the drug is safe and effective to avoid the need for Phase III trials ). We just don't have a date for start - but they are aiming to seek funding for the MRD trial in the "fall" from the University of Texas. Read the transcript and read carefully for when they plan to do things.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200619/pdf/44js8sg253xwjh.pdf

I think the sweet spot for a takeover is after they have had readouts from the MRD trial and the Breast Cancer trial. The trials don't necessarily need to be complete ... it can take several years to measure the Overall Survival data, but early readouts will strongly indicate likely outcome with the context of historic results.

I've provided some thoughts on timelines on HC - I guess take these as optimistic timelines. We of course need the company to firm up timelines and get the trials underway, so I suggest following announcements closely.

If a breast cancer trial starts end of the year ( timeline that was announced ), a strong result from first readout could lead to a takeover outcome ( readout could be perhaps 9 months after the trial starts allowing 6 months for recruitment ). The recruitment could be much quicker though - hence the timeline below. They are starting with a small Phase II proof of concept trial.
So optimistic timeframe

• Trial starts recruitment December
• 3 months for recruitment ( all patients recruited by end of March )
• 3 months for first readout ( that gets us to end of June 2021 ), I would envisage a secondary outcome measure relating to tumour size
• 2 months for a massive rerate lol
• Takeover transaction occurs

I think it really could be that quick - August 2021.​

In a second post:

Further to this speculation so I am thinking:

1. First readout for Breast Caner trial in H2 2021
2. First readouts for Adult R/R AML and potentially MRD AML trials in H1 2021

I think the optimal outcome for a share price perspective is:

1. First readouts from 2 x AML trials in H1 2021
2. First readouts for Breast Cancer trial in H2 2021

This sequence is important as I think RAC will attract more share price sentiment for AML if first AML readouts are before the first readout for Breast Cancer.

Logic for this is that strong readouts for AML will attract market attention before the critical Breast Cancer trial readout occurs.
The Paediatric R/R AML trial readout would likely occur in H2 2021 as the plan is for the Adult R/R AML trial in Israel to guide the approach for Paediatric R/R AML.​

The main piece of the puzzle remaining is the timing of the MRD AML trial. The importance of it is due to:

• 505 (b)(2) pathway for fast approval from Phase II results
• Paediatric part of this trial since this nicely supports the Priority Review Voucher ( which is valued in the order of USD $100M ).

​

 

Thanks Wombat, I also notice you get a shout out in the webinar haha

Hope you don't mind me sharing but for anyone interested in RAC take a look at this thread with a wealth of knowledge and analysis. Reading this really helped firm things up for me and id say a few people owe you a beer

RACE ONCOLOGY LTD (ASX:RAC) - RAC Research Primer - June 2020, page-1 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

 

@wombat777
You're missing some important bits of knowledge about ALL/AML and the way in which the haematological malignancies are treated. Running out of options of chemo is very rarely the reason someone dies, they mostly die of overwhelming sepsis, so there are significantly higher barriers to getting a drug accepted than even in medical oncology

Also, there are several reasons that AML has a lower survival rate than ALL, but the major one you can pick up pretty easily via google. Lots of AML occurs in people with 5 other medical comorbidities who are already dying or at the very least have far less physiological reserve

 

Had a good run with SLR,FMG,BGL, IMU. Goldies are saving my ass this year. Looking to top-up

ELS,AVZ,BOT been very disappointing YTD, but holding for the long term

 

Thanks for the insights.

 

Are we all ready for another disappointing day...........must get better soon........

 

The situation overseas is just going from bad to worse... need a vaccine or effective treatment.

Even simple things like sharing a salt shaker or cigarette lighter can transmit Covid.

 

MSB has an effective treatment

DYOR

 

Yes another day of pain. US in trouble, previously been saved by FED pumping $ but not sure that would be effective whilst the cases on the way up!
VIC getting under control likely help locally.

 

Another good start to the week with ,RAC up over 10 percent this morning,.imho.

 

and.. when that happens.. boom!
Scientists have developed vaccines or controls for many viruses and bacterias. Surely, they will find one soon.

 

Define "soon."

 

And there are several viruses that no vaccine has been developed . Or it has taken several years/decades to do so.

 

Anybody take today as a buying opportunity or waiting to see if it’s the start of a run that will offer further discounts?

I doubled up on CVN and WPL today...was also tempted by banks but kept a little powder dry.

 

Added more ZIP & BUB

 

???

 

Look at the day chart. It jumped a good 12% and ended up 6% down. Have a buy in at 0.58c

Bought and sold KMD 3x today, AIZ is back to its lows of a month ago. Tempting but I’d sooner put towards RAC right now

 

Like.. my boss saying "you'll get a pay raise soon"