ASX Shares Short term COVID-19 opportunities in the stockmarket

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by Sackie, 9th Mar, 2020.

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  1. aussie1

    aussie1 Active Member

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    learnt a little lesson on conditional stop orders today. Accidentally set my trigger price the same as my price limit and the order didn't execute. Now holding OML about 8% down. Long term it should be okay but a little annoyed at myself
     
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  2. Skinman

    Skinman Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for sharing. I’ve often wondered if this can happen.

    Am I correct in assuming to be sure of executing you need to set your trigger price a little higher than the limit price?
     
  3. Skinman

    Skinman Well-Known Member

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    Bought GEAR about an hour ago on the back of the positive PMI data and continued easing of restrictions....apologies to all for not letting you know it advance so you could have purchased BBOZ :oops:
     
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  4. Skinman

    Skinman Well-Known Member

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    It appears the Whitehouse had been waiting on my purchase of GEAR to make the announcement about the US - China trade deal being over :confused::D
     
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  5. Skinman

    Skinman Well-Known Member

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    How’s everyone going? This thread appears to be dropping off...are people not seeing short term opportunities in the current market? Or are you taking a breather and seeing how things play out?

    I have doubled up on AIZ this morning @ 1.31. My first lot were at 1.19 but still think they will do really well on the next good news announcement regarding easing of lockdown in NZ and potential trans Tasman travel bubble.

    I’ve almost fully deployed my spare capital now so will be kicking myself if we have another significant drop off.
     
  6. eyespy1

    eyespy1 Well-Known Member

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    Personally I think I would have done better if I stayed longer term in shares rather than some of the short term trades I’ve made. I’ve missed out on growth by jumping in and jumping out. So I’m trying to be patient ......let my shares ride and if there is another pull back then I’ll buy again. Still have bbus, don’t know what to do with that. Guess that’s my hedge if things go down again.
     
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  7. Owlet

    Owlet Well-Known Member

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    AT1 had a good day today.
     
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  8. San2018

    San2018 Well-Known Member

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    Don't know why. I bought 10K worth shares and its 15% up atm. Are these shares worth to hold long term?
     
  9. Owlet

    Owlet Well-Known Member

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    I don't know why either. I had bought a small parcel im the 50s and averaged down to 47 and then 40 and was sitting on a couple of buy orders under 30 which didn't get filled - then today happens. I was glad to be less in the red. From the little I have read it seems like the company has a promosing future and enough positivity that I didn't sell out and am happy to hold.
     
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  10. xactly

    xactly Well-Known Member

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    I sold my AT1 today at 58
    bought at 19 so there is 20K
    sold a dud so overall is 15K profit.
    I was getting too twitchy and I don't like the feelings of greed and fear that have been rising in me over weeks.

    back to LICs and Indexs for me, I won't need them for another 10 years so i feel more at peace now. Im not cut out to be a gambler. Im quitting while Im ahead. the world has decoupled from sense right now.
    Good luck ladies and gentlemen.
     
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  11. Codie

    Codie Well-Known Member

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    I agree on AIZ I've liked this one from the start. I think new Zealand will become the top holiday destinations once things open up. SYD all though very little income still has $900m on hand which they haven't touched yet. it shot up to $7 a few weeks

    Have been reading up about RAC on hotcopper, some from @wombat777 and am really convinced on this long term, also NVX and TON.

    Thinking about tipping in about $30k today for short term but haven't decided on what yet. Main thoughts are AIZ,SYD,KMD,NVX, SCG, - id welcome any others or reasons not to buy more of these lol
     
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  12. Brady

    Brady Well-Known Member

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    @Fargo buying today or spooked?

    I added more EML, PAR, BUB, PBH, ZIP and have order in for FXL
     
  13. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

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    For context a Leukemia trial conducted in Israel significantly derisks RAC. Read the presentation and the transcript.

    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200619/pdf/44js8sg253xwjh.pdf
    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200619/pdf/44js8xhwcc3c07.pdf

    Also watch this video from their AGM last year.



    Numbers below are key for potential. Extracts from some posts. This is just for valuing the AML part of their strategy. My numbers below exclude Breast Cancer and Ovarian Cancer ( which are much greater than for AML ).

    Interesting .. RAC are basically following the path that Micromet implemented for ALL.
    1. A Phase II trial for MRD
    2. A Phase II trial for Adult R/R AML
    3. A Phase II trial for Paediatric R/R AML
    Result for Micromet was a USD $1.16B buyout ( Note - ALL has 1/3rd of the incidence of AML )

    Amgen to Acquire Micromet | Amgen Inc.


    Screen Shot 2020-06-25 at 1.18.04 pm.png

    From another of my posts:

    A bit more data on the comparison with the Amgen Buyout of Micromet. That was for treating Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia (ALL) which has 1/3rd of the incidence of Acute Myeloid Leukaemia (AML).

    AML seems to be a much more deadly disease since 5-year relative survival is 28.7% versus 68.8% for ALL, so AML is a much tougher condition to treat, which might mean the value of an AML treatment on a per-patient basis will be much more valuable than a treatment for ALL ( due to the increased savings in treatment costs for insurers ).

    Micromet also had a similar pipeline as posted above - MRD, Adult R/R and Paediatric R/R.

    Adjusting for incidence and escalation since 2012 a buyout valuation for an AML treatment would be valued in the order of AUD $6.1B.

    (my diagram below)

    Screen Shot 2020-06-25 at 1.21.50 pm.png

    Using an estimated 30% dilution ... that makes RACE a 59-bagger for AML. Wow!!!!

    (calculation below was at 50.5c, share price is 47.5c today)

    Screen Shot 2020-06-25 at 1.23.05 pm.png


     
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  14. Anthony416

    Anthony416 Well-Known Member

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    Another disappointing day....what is going on with AIZ, down 8.4% :( Why?? Don't want to double down on this one.
     
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  15. luckyP

    luckyP Well-Known Member

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    I bought EML avg 3.51. The US jobless claims will turn us green overnight. ;)
     
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  16. Skinman

    Skinman Well-Known Member

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    I got in again on AIZ today at 1.21...there will be some good news around the corner and I’m confident there will be some double digit daily % gains on this like the other week.
     
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  17. iloveqld

    iloveqld Well-Known Member

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    July is coming...
     
  18. Codie

    Codie Well-Known Member

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    The below come out last week, Forsyth Barr have AIZ at a target of $.70c and believe it’s hugely overvalued. I don’t quite subscribe to that idea and think $1.15-$1.20 is fair. We have to factor in some of the fact that trans tas travel is around the corner (potentially)


    “In an update to the New Zealand stock exchange (NZX) on Thursday, Air New Zealand said it was expecting a loss of up to $120 million for its 2020 financial year.

    The announcement came days after the release of a report by Forsyth Barr analysts Andy Bowley and Scott Anderson which said Air New Zealand cash losses and asset impairments would materially deplete its net asset value as at June 30, 2020, and likely further to June 30, 2021.

    Forsyth Barr reduced its target price per share for Air New Zealand to 70 cents, down from $1, to reflect heavier losses in the 2021 financial year than previously anticipated.”
     
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  19. Codie

    Codie Well-Known Member

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    I hope your right mate!
     
  20. Skinman

    Skinman Well-Known Member

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    I was aware of the 70c price target and the losses for the year but when you read all the literature AIZ have released on their restructuring / cost reduction plans and see the untouched loan facility they have with the government plus factor in they are the national carrier it’s extremely unlikely they will go bust which ticks criteria 1 in the current market.

    I also believe that as investors desperately search for good news stories to deploy cash into this suits AIZ short term. On the next announcement from the NZ government on restrictions easing further and domestic travel starting to increase people will be all over AIZ. When not if the trans Tasman travel bubble comes the price will sky rocket again on sentiment...if it takes a while so be it...im holding until it happens. That’s why I didn’t sell when they hit the 1.70’s even though I was up 40 odd%

    Plus based on my terrible track record so far I need to get one right! :p
     
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