NSW Shellharbour LGA this cycle

Where do people think the Illawarra (and in particular the Shellharbour LGA) are on the property clock?

Obviously they've had a good run and are somewhere near the top, but how much steam do people think they have left?

My thought is that seeing as they are riding the ripple out of Sydney, they probably lag Sydney by 6-12 months, and with the stamp duty exemptions about to be extended to established homes, I don't see any reason why the lower end of the market can't keep growing for another 6-12 months, maybe a little longer.

Thoughts?

 

Shellharbour LGA has already had some good growth...but properties are still affordable. I have one in Barrack Heights I bought in 2012 for 241k...it is now 550k plus.

With the re-intro of stamp duty exemptions for FHB it will probably have another 5-10% in it before it is curtains...

 

Sash, are your predictions still the same for Shellharbour? I also have an IP in Barrack Heights - trying to decide whether to sell or not (leaning towards holding and keeping for the long term due to the infrastructure being built/in the plans for the area). I would expect Shellharbour area to have another year or so in it before slightly correcting - what do you think?

 

I think it has about 6 months....but it is near the top. My one bought for 241k us probably still around 540-560k seems to be resistance to go any higher.

 

Agree with Sash. Probably another 6 months or so. I can't see too much of a correction down here really though as prices aren't that high to begin with although all the new housing estates underway out Calderwood way are a concern they're cropping up all over the region.

 

I could be wrong but I think a little longer. I recently published an article on the marina which I don't think I am supposed to link here but pm me if you want it. My view is that yes the market will grow more slowly than recent yrs but still represents the most affordable homes on the coast heading down from Sydney and with the natural assets should remain in demand getting the ripple of people moving not just investor money. The Marina will slowly see the surrounding area's image transformed and attract the extra $. Be careful there are some areas to avoid with public housing and social issues so the selection is important. Calderwood and the other estates are coming online but the land further from the coast, hotter, and is not cheap, when you consider the build cost you can still buy closer to beach established places for less money than can build new. As a result I am still buying investor clients into selected bits of the region.

 

Yes, seeing prices stall a bit around Barrack Heights (where my IP is) and surrounding areas, though am interested in the marina's impact (if any at all) on property prices. Interestingly enough, I feel that a lot of the growth coming out of the area at the moment is from first home buyers (many coming down from Sydney?) who can snap up a decent priced place and not have to pay the stamp duty. From what I have noticed in Barrack Heights/Flinders/Blackbutt/Shellharbour 3 bedroom houses under that 700,000 mark (which usually excludes Shellharbour) are still being sold quite quickly. I'm sure the same can be seen through Wollongong and many other areas throughout the Illawarra! I see the apartments being built in the marina as attracting a much older crowd of retirees, though as Sydney slows down perhaps the migratory Northerners will also slow down and put the brakes on prices? Hope you're right though Matt! Another 12 months of 5-10% growth before lights out would do me just fine.