Shares ... would you buy them now or wait ??

Discussion in 'Share Investing Strategies, Theories & Education' started by Kelly88, 21st May, 2019.

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  1. Kelly88

    Kelly88 Well-Known Member

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    Hi,

    It's about time for this month that I'm thinking about buying more shares. I buy once a month (<10K) for about 1-2 months now, depending on how much that I can save.

    Would you buy shares now or wait until the end of this week or next week ? I was thinking about buying last week but wanted to wait until after the election :(:(:(:confused::eek:

    Thanks ;):)

    Kelly
     
  2. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    If you do it many times and over time, does this week or next week matter?
     
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  3. Kelly88

    Kelly88 Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I plan to do once a month, the amount depends on how much that I save … but will not be more than 10K …
     
  4. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    So does it really matter whether its this week or next week? If you buy today and it goes up $500, will you sell? If you buy next week when its $500 higher, is it a problem? In 10 years it doubles. Would you still be thinking about the $500?
     
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  5. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    I'd be much more concerned about what to buy, rather than when.
     
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  6. Snowball

    Snowball Well-Known Member

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    Whatever week you buy it’s not going to make much difference in 30+ years time. You’ll probably just wish you bought more!
     
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  7. PandS

    PandS Well-Known Member

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    price you paid does affect your rate of return something people often over looked
    someone who bought in 2007 just recovered their money and someone who bought in 2009
    would have double or triple their money
     
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  8. Kelly88

    Kelly88 Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I guess someone bought in 2007 and keep buying every month until now would be able to do quite well
     
  9. Silverson

    Silverson Well-Known Member

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    What are you planning to buy?
     
  10. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    Dunno if you realise this @Kelly88 but you're already employing a strategy called "Dollar Cost Averaging".

    As long as you keep buying consistently over regular intervals, it shouldn't matter too much when you buy.

    It's worth reading up on.
    Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Definition
     
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  11. Zenith Chaos

    Zenith Chaos Well-Known Member

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    Statistically lump sum beats DCA. That being said, if you can predict the market then wait until you know it will drop and then buy.
     
  12. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    Ideally sometime in the past when prices were at their nadir. Sadly I don't know when the future nadir is going to occur. I'd be holding off until that point.

    Flippancy aside, it depends on why you are buying, your intention and your attitude. Capital growth, income, combination of both, trading or set and forget.

    Seriously, someone can ask a question and get 100 opinions. All may be right, all may be wrong, some may be right, some maybe wrong, one may be spot on or not. Trouble with that is how would anyone asking the question know which response to follow?

    I do consider you have to get to a stage where you are comfortable with the approach you develop. By all means read the views of others but if they don't fit you then dismiss them.

    And never take on board anything I may say.
     
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  13. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    Wait for what?

    If you buy now they could go up further and the next time you buy they may be more expensive
    If you buy now they could go down further and the next time you buy they may be cheaper

    Statistically speaking, the best time to invest is when you have the funds available

    Warren Buffett says stock market forecasters exist to make fortunetellers look good

    The only thing I know is..

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Blueskies

    Blueskies Well-Known Member

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    I have found a happy medium with this problem.

    I also DCA usually on a two monthly window, but there is still a part of me that enjoys trying to make a call about where there is value in different markets. I don’t want to get into an argument with the diehards DCA Folks about the validity if this, efficient markets blah blah blah. I enjoy it, it is just a little bit of fun for me so thats that.

    So now I have a bit of both, I have set myself an asset allocation with percentage ranges I am happy to be in. Then when it comes time to buy I look across my holdings to see both what I need to buy but also where I see value. For example I just added to my holdings in emerging markets via VGE . Why - they’ve had a pullback on trade war fears and I feel better value there than AU, US and EU at the moment. Having said that I am still within the % allocation range I have set myself.
     
  15. Nuncasuficiente

    Nuncasuficiente Well-Known Member

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    Where’s the proof?
     
  16. PandS

    PandS Well-Known Member

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    Not against DCA or regular investment but DCA like model and average works on paper, it is a little bit different in real life because it doesn't account for pro long period of price moving in one direction and you over paid, that will killed your return if there is a large correction.

    a better way to DCA is have an idea of how much something is worth and wait to buy for what it worth or below what it worth and stop buying when it way over value, It doesn't have to be an exact science just a general idea just like properties, you never know how much exactly a properties is worth but you have a reasonable idea of how much you should be paying for them so when it run hot you just don't touch

    You can applying a similar logic to share markets and the business you buying
    so it come down to what you are buying and how much you should be paying for them but not when.

    The when can happen in any environment, bear, bull, sideway
     
  17. blob2004

    blob2004 Well-Known Member

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    I believe there has been studies done on it and lump sum beats DCA about two thirds of the time. If you do a google search you will see many people talking about it.

    The idea is that markets historically goes up more often than it goes down, so the longer you wait the more likely they will become more expensive, but of course it does not work all the time.
     
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  18. Kelly88

    Kelly88 Well-Known Member

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    Oh well, I don't have the lump sum to invest right now, unfortunately, so I'll just have to buy monthly.

    I'm just starting to buy shares, but I don't know if I enjoy setting the price each time I try to buy. Maybe I should try to save more to get in the Vanguard Managed Fund instead as some other posters suggested.
     
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  19. Nuncasuficiente

    Nuncasuficiente Well-Known Member

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    Ok but that doesn’t account for the lack of self control that many people possess.

    If Joe blogs buys $100k of VAS with the intention of a long game and it declines 2% he is likely to quickly sell at a loss and miss the 5% gain that may be around the corner + a quarter or 2 of dividends then buying back in at a higher price and possibly repeating the process or selling to chase losses.

    One of the best parts of DCA is that it takes out the human factor.

    All IMO.
     
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  20. sfdoddsy

    sfdoddsy Well-Known Member

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