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Sharemarket - still bull run or start of bear downturn?

Discussion in 'Living Room' started by Michael.Knight, 24th Aug, 2015.

?

Are we still in a bull market or have we started entering a new bear downturn?

  1. Bull market still going!

    31.3%
  2. Bear downturn beginning...

    68.8%
  1. Michael.Knight

    Michael.Knight Member

    Joined:
    2nd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    17
    Location:
    Melbourne, VIC
    China just lost 8% today and the ASX is down nearly 4%...

    What do you all think - is this a new GFC what with many foreign sharemarkets crashing (China, Malaysia, Greece etc?)... or is it simply a short-term correction....
     
  2. mrdobalina

    mrdobalina Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    990
    Location:
    On the ski slopes
    Bull market? ASX has lost all of its gains from the past 2 years.
     
  3. Mombius Hibachi

    Mombius Hibachi Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    492
    My thoughts are that there is a distinct possibility that, over the next 12 months or so, the market might go up. But then, it might go down. On the other hand, it might go sideways.
     
    Ben Wilkie, marty998 and MTR like this.
  4. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    20th Jun, 2015
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    2,840
    Location:
    Brisbane
    My prediction for the ASX 200 in the next 3-6 months will be like that of the Sydney market- higher volatility with the blue chips holding relatively firm and the speculative investments being trashed.
     
  5. Greyghost

    Greyghost Well-Known Member

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    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,262
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Look at QBE on Friday. During the doom and gloom this thing rose 13%.
    Always investments to be made. Just need to do your DD as with everything else.
     
  6. marty998

    marty998 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    125
    Location:
    Sydney
    We first hit 5000 10 years ago and we're still there now.

    On a dividend accumulation basis it's a different story however but that is not what will grab the headline.

    6800 peak seems so far away now...
     
  7. mrdobalina

    mrdobalina Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    990
    Location:
    On the ski slopes
    Geez... You're right. Does that mean that, for example, the index trackers (like VAS) would have had no capital growth in the last 10 years? The only gain would have been via dividends.
     
  8. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    4th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    819
    Location:
    Balmain
    If you had invested in VAS
    $9,970.17 on 30 Aug 2005 you would have returned
    9.25% p.a. = Total
    4.64% p.a. + CG
    5.67% p.a. Dividends

    According to sharesight
     
    Redwing likes this.
  9. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    839
    Location:
    WA
    30th June 2005 the All Ords Accumulation Index was 24,534

    30th June 2015 the All Ords Accumulation Index was 48,602

    2005 24,534 26.35%
    2006 30,405 23.93%
    2007 39,119 28.66%
    2008 33,875 -13.41%
    2009 27,054 -20.14%
    2010 30,610 13.14%
    2011 34,201 11.73%
    2012 31,905 -6.71%
    2013 39,163 22.75%
    2014 45,991 17.44%
    2015 48,602 5.68%
     
  10. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    20th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,840
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Yep, I'll settle for those numbers anyday. And being index funds, you don't have to do jack.. Just let it ride.