Sharemarket - still bull run or start of bear downturn?

Discussion in 'Sharemarket News & Market Analysis' started by Michael.Knight, 24th Aug, 2015.

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Are we still in a bull market or have we started entering a new bear downturn?

  1. Bull market still going!

    5 vote(s)
    31.3%

  2. Bear downturn beginning...

    11 vote(s)
    68.8%
  1. Michael.Knight

    Michael.Knight Well-Known Member

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    China just lost 8% today and the ASX is down nearly 4%...

    What do you all think - is this a new GFC what with many foreign sharemarkets crashing (China, Malaysia, Greece etc?)... or is it simply a short-term correction....
     
    Michael.Knight, 24th Aug, 2015
    #1
  2. mrdobalina

    mrdobalina Well-Known Member

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    Bull market? ASX has lost all of its gains from the past 2 years.
     
    mrdobalina, 24th Aug, 2015
    #2
  3. Mombius Hibachi

    Mombius Hibachi Well-Known Member

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    My thoughts are that there is a distinct possibility that, over the next 12 months or so, the market might go up. But then, it might go down. On the other hand, it might go sideways.
     
    Mombius Hibachi, 24th Aug, 2015
    #3
    Ben Wilkie, marty998 and MTR like this.
  4. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    My prediction for the ASX 200 in the next 3-6 months will be like that of the Sydney market- higher volatility with the blue chips holding relatively firm and the speculative investments being trashed.
     
    JDP1, 24th Aug, 2015
    #4
  5. Greyghost

    Greyghost Well-Known Member

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    Look at QBE on Friday. During the doom and gloom this thing rose 13%.
    Always investments to be made. Just need to do your DD as with everything else.
     
    Greyghost, 25th Aug, 2015
    #5
  6. marty998

    marty998 Well-Known Member

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    We first hit 5000 10 years ago and we're still there now.

    On a dividend accumulation basis it's a different story however but that is not what will grab the headline.

    6800 peak seems so far away now...
     
    marty998, 26th Aug, 2015
    #6
  7. mrdobalina

    mrdobalina Well-Known Member

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    Geez... You're right. Does that mean that, for example, the index trackers (like VAS) would have had no capital growth in the last 10 years? The only gain would have been via dividends.
     
    mrdobalina, 26th Aug, 2015
    #7
  8. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    Location:
    Upper Blue Mountains
    If you had invested in VAS
    $9,970.17 on 30 Aug 2005 you would have returned
    9.25% p.a. = Total
    4.64% p.a. + CG
    5.67% p.a. Dividends

    According to sharesight
     
    radson, 30th Aug, 2015
    #8
    Redwing likes this.
  9. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    30th June 2005 the All Ords Accumulation Index was 24,534

    30th June 2015 the All Ords Accumulation Index was 48,602

    2005 24,534 26.35%
    2006 30,405 23.93%
    2007 39,119 28.66%
    2008 33,875 -13.41%
    2009 27,054 -20.14%
    2010 30,610 13.14%
    2011 34,201 11.73%
    2012 31,905 -6.71%
    2013 39,163 22.75%
    2014 45,991 17.44%
    2015 48,602 5.68%
     
    Redwing, 30th Aug, 2015
    #9
  10. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Brisbane
    Yep, I'll settle for those numbers anyday. And being index funds, you don't have to do jack.. Just let it ride.
     
    JDP1, 30th Aug, 2015
    #10