Shadow. next chapter

@Shadow. Per your AFR post, this space is reserved for you to post.

 

Which post?

 

Perhaps @RetireRich101 means APF, not AFR... either that or we finally have confirmation that @Shadow actually is Chris Joye and this is a reference to one of his recent articles...

 

Do you mean the Christopher Joye that writes in the Fin Review and Smart Investor mag amongst other publications?

If so, he has been far from a bull over the last year or two........

Just one example:

"RBA is blowing the mother of all housing bubbles": Chris Joye

If I have it wrong and it's someone else you're referring to, my apologies.

 

There was a bit of a running joke/theory that he and Shadow were one and the same person a few years back.

 

Wasn't Shadow the guy who kept modifying his "guru" charts but retaining the original hyperlink to make it look as though he was some sort of Internet prophet?

Before my time but I remember lurking on Somersoft.

 

Thanks for the correction. Yes, Australian Property Forum APF. Don't know who Chris Joye is.
Shadow maybe a female according to the article, or is gay. Any which way, Shadow has done very well.

Goodbye APF. Shadow has retired. IPs sold. Home fully paid off. Cash in the bank. Debt free.

 

I remember Shadow predicting a building boom for about 7 or 8 years. Finally got it right.

 

He always could pull a graph out of no where to prove his points. It's use to really annoy posters "veritas" and "moops" lol

those silly bears...

 

Posted the 1st of April

 

There was person so obsessed to take him down on APF, that he followed him to SS as well.
So obsessed, that person even had in his signature about Shadow...

Now that Shadow is retiring and won't be posting on APF, wondering what this person will do

 

Well played @Shadow.

Sure, I'm a doom and gloomer, and therefore at the opposite end of the spectrum, but one of us has a million dollars in the bank, and a paid off house...

I'd be interested to know the basis of her predictions though. As far as I could tell they were taking a trend line and extrapolating it forward. I'm more pessimistic about Sydney than she is, simply because prices there have become detached from wages, but we'll see how it all plays out in the next few years.

 

Surely any statement of such nature made before lunch in on April 1 must be taken with a bag of salt

 

What are you basing this statement on? That house prices are at high earnings multiples? There are reasons for that.

 

Bit of a convenient date to use really... come back in 12 months and prices are higher 'oh yeah that was totally a joke, gotcha' or prices are lower 'yeah I really did sell, just a coincidence the day I used to tell everyone, good timing huh'.

 

I'm basing it on income and also rental yields.

Running on a traditional price to income model, the average house in Sydney is a bit of a stretch for someone who's just in the top 1% of earnings. ($220K in 2012.)

Similarly, a lot of property investments require above inflation price rises to break even.

I'm not saying that there's a bubble about to burst, but I think that the market could prove to be fragile in event of a recession or financial crisis. There's a lot of leverage in the system.

 

I just started reading some of shadow's posts on the other forum after the link posted above. Great reading and he seems to be able to shoot down bears with good data.

Shadow - are you out there? Come and post here. Would love to ask you a few questions!

 

I reckon. how many bears can you get under one roof. i don't think i can survive a day there, let alone it contains useless meaningless forum.

 

Shadow was cool! Worth listening to! Salute to a successful investor!

 

I got tired just scrolling through El Matadors post..