Hey guys, on the weekend I was driving through Rossmore, Kemps creek and Austral to visit my in-laws and parents, I observed that there were sale signs every where, literally seeing it one after another. Throughout all those years of living there in my teens and 20s, I have never seen so many sales signs. I did a quick check on realestate.com.au and confirmed my suspicion that it is indeed sellers' FOMO to offload before too late. For Rossmore alone, there has been 8 acreage properties for sale in one go. It has more up for sale than the whole year worth of sale back in 2016 and double the amount in 2015. For Kemps Creek, it situation is even more extreme, it has more on sale now than the 3 years of previous sale combine. My guess is that many older owners wants to lock in that profit and retire, they are afraid that the market can turn anytime soon. While those areas has increased 3x in price for the last 5 years, I think it still has plenty of potential with the new airport and road extensions happening as we speak and rail line to the airport is almost a certainty. IMHO would be great time to pick and choose in this environment if you have the means to buy it. While I am pretty certain that sellers are now more nervous than it has ever been in the areas that I know quite well off, what has been your observation of the market recently in Sydney?
No rush to pick up the bargains in Sydney. Clearance rates have been dropping for the last few months and volumes increasing. Understand the rush for retirees. Baby boomers started turning 65 in 2010. We are 7 years into a 20yr megacycle of baby boomers (more turning 65 each year) and needing to unload properties to fund retirements. Certainly no rush for buyers
Seeing the same thing @icic . I grew up in the area too. I think that belt is a pretty safe bet going forward. A lot of dreamers with stars in their eyes regarding the prices though. There is a big migration happening at the moment with a lot of people selling up in Kemps, Rossmore, Austral etc and moving out to Camden and Wollondilly which is sending acreage prices there through the roof.
the wave effect, I am wonder anyone have similar observation else where. Few weeks ago was at Cabramatta and have seen lots of the red brick units for sale, see one or multiple sale sign for each block.
Same observation Biz. I grew up new here also and still have close family here. Seeing the same thing. All the old school Itals and Maltese selling their old produce farms and moving to lifestyle acreages further south west and putting money in the bank at the same time.
The stock numbers will be through the roof in Sydney....as the lemmings....err investors get out in Spring/Summer.....should get very interesting.....2019....here we come!!
@icic I know this market well and have followed it for many years. I have no current holdings in the area. Although I think that seller FOMO is well and truly underway across many metro markets in Sydney and starting to affect Melbourne, I disagree about Rossmore/Kemps Creek/Austral/Bringelly. In those markets, you have a lot of large landholdings that people have had for 20, 30, even 40+ years. Developers are falling over themselves to get into the area, with the confirmation of the second airport and the never-ending sprawl from West Hoxton et al. There is a lot of foreign and domestic money looking to buy in. A lot of the sales are off-market and kept under wraps. Hence the prices have shot up. Locals hear of the prices being paid and start to wonder "is now the time to cash in?". The 'FOR SALE' sign uptick represent people who have either hit the point where they are ready to cash in (retire, help the kids/grand kids) or who have bitten off more than they can chew debt-wise. The vast majority are the former. A lot of these have been told they can probably hold out and reap even greater rewards down the track, but are happy to get several million and downsize, move to QLD, acreage further south, etc etc. I believe @Biz is right. Over the medium term, there is still a long way for prices to run for those who have sizeable landholdings. I wish I was in a position 10-15 years ago to acquire 5-50 acres. Hindsight is great.
I agree with Barry Smith. I have family and family friends with holdings in the area. They have been receiving offers from developers. I'm pretty sure the ones with the for sale signs have decided to cash out (one family friend bought an acreage in Leppington for about $120k in the late 1980s ) and want to flush out a better bid from either the developer or someone else.
sydney is the ONLY investable place in Austrlalia. I would rather put every cent - whether its $1 or $1m in areas of sydney such as Emu Plains rather than even the blue chip suburbs in anyother city
