Safe as Houses

I saw this image when I was looking something else up but cant get into the article.

Redirect Notice

However the image was;


How correct are The Australian/BIS Shrapnel with their predications so far?

 

Impossible, house prices only ever go up and double every 7-10 years!!

 

Wow apparently Adelaide is really gonna cop it

 

Forecasting on cap city median prices such as that chart/picture shows, is a fools game. There are just too many variables in play, to know for certain how any cap city will perform.

Everything from lending restrictions/easings; global financial woes affecting locally, local black swan event, and a biggie of course is immigration policy and birth-rates. More bubbas = need for more bedrooms, schools etc. etc. Also, supply side as much as demand and excessive building in some cities.

It also irks me how much these types of charts split out houses and units/apartments and never assume each one can influence the other. Lets be honest, if 3 bed houses in inner sydney were going for $500k, imagine the deop in demand for units! And a more real/accurate one is Brisbane with the ever-continuing-discounting of near-new apartments due to oversupply. Eventually some buyers who had their heart set on a house there, might start thinking.. 'geez that 3-bed unit is reduced another 20%! I can get that for half the price of the house i had in mind..' etc.

 

Some of the best advice I ever got was to understand that most of these numbers put out is all hocus pocus. Focus on/master understanding supply and demand ( obviously buying high demand limited supply stock) of an area, avoid top of the market prices and you'll do well.