Sackie's live trading experiment

Discussion in 'Share Investing Strategies, Theories & Education' started by Sackie, 20th Jun, 2021.

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  1. Brumbie

    Brumbie Well-Known Member

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    Canberra
    Nope cannot find it sorry. Found a few others though that has piqued my interest. Oh what fun we can have waiting for development approvals!
    1. By applying the ATR of a candlestick bodysize and close position within range and what effect it has on the next candle closing in the same direction is a mathematical edge of about 4% to a normal 50/50 chance of trading. That is. Price can either go up/down and there is equal chance of this on a short timeframe then if the preceding candle opens and closes with a range bigger than the previous bar and the ATR then statistically you should win 54% of trades. The trick is can you cover spread and RR to make it a winning strategy.

    2.
    Three Candle signal Strategy

    To go LONG
    1. Body of the latest candle is greater than body of each of the 2 previous candles
    2. Previous candle must be bearish
    3. Close of latest candle is higher than close of the previous candle

    To go SHORT
    1. Body of the latest candle is greater than body of each of the 2 previous candles
    2. Previous candle must be bullish
    3. Close of latest candle is lower than close of the previous candle

    Backtesting produced 33% wins but they were big. TP was set at 4:1 on Long and 3:1 on shorts. total annual return of 42%.

    Just goes to show it all comes down to risk and money management. Letting the winners run and cutting losers quickly but giving the trade enough room to breath. Even a strategy that only wins a third of the time can make money.
    Sorry for babbling on!
     
    Brumbie, 23rd Jun, 2021
    #61
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  2. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,058
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Thanks for sharing, appreciate it! I do like renko bars in principle, I've just never gotten around to back testing any set ups with it.

    Re letting winners run and cutting losers quickly took me a long time to implement. When i did that coupled with better risk management, it started to turn things around. What I love about trading is its not my life. Its an extra income stream which I don't rely on or need, so it doesn't impact my psychology too much. But i cant imagine trading where your rent is reliant on it....the pressure would be insane.
     
    Sackie, 23rd Jun, 2021
    #62
  3. Brumbie

    Brumbie Well-Known Member

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    Canberra
    Yes I totally agree. Only trade with money you can lose. I am in the same boat finance wise, as you, although I am still damaged goods regarding the psychology of trading hence going auto. I get into it in between developments or renos of rentals and bike riding and drinking rum with my friends....etc,etc.
     
    Brumbie, 23rd Jun, 2021
    #63
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  4. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    18th Jun, 2015
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    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    We have that in common, just change the rum for whiskey:)
     
    Sackie, 23rd Jun, 2021
    #64
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  5. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,058
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Trade: 6(open)
    Pair    : EURUSD
    Time frame: 15 chart
    Trading direction: SHORT. Red line is SL, Green is entry
    eurusd15.PNG
     
    Sackie, 23rd Jun, 2021
    #65
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  6. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,058
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Trade: 6(closed)
    Pair    : EURUSD
    Time frame: 15 chart
    Trading direction: SHORT.
    Win/loss: lose 1 unit
     
    Sackie, 23rd Jun, 2021
    #66
  7. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,058
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Trade: 7 (open)
    Pair    : gbpjpy
    Time frame: 15 chart
    Trading direction: Long
    Screenshot_20210623-161704_MetaTrader 5.jpg
     
    Sackie, 23rd Jun, 2021
    #67
  8. Brumbie

    Brumbie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    5th Mar, 2018
    Posts:
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    Location:
    Canberra
    I must take this opportunity to thank you all. All this talking about timeframes has got me thinking and I have decided to start coding and testing a multi timeframe addition to my systems. This should reduce my time in the market and stress and hopefully increase accuracy and profits. There was a major upgrade to the software a few months ago allowing this feature but I was so focused on the detail that I forgot all about it and missed the big picture. You have helped me. Thanks!
     
    Brumbie, 23rd Jun, 2021
    #68
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  9. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
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    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Trade: 7 (update)
    Pair    : gbpjpy
    Time frame: 15 chart
    Trading direction: Long
    Comments: SL moved to break even.

    Screenshot_20210623-171315_MetaTrader 5.jpg
     
    Sackie, 23rd Jun, 2021
    #69
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  10. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,058
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Trade: 7 (closed)
    Pair    : gbpjpy
    Time frame: 15 chart
    Trading direction: Long
    Win/loss: win
    Risk to Reward: 1 to 3.

    gbpjpyexit.PNG
     
    Sackie, 23rd Jun, 2021
    #70
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  11. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Trade: 5 (UPDATE)
    Pair    : AUD/USD
    Time frame: 4h chart
    Trading direction: Long.
    Comments: Moved my SL to BE now.
    audusdupdate.PNG
     
    Sackie, 23rd Jun, 2021
    #71
  12. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
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    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Trade: 8 (open)
    Pair    : usd/cad
    Time frame: 15 chart
    Trading direction: short (down)
    Comment: Red is SL, Green line is entry. Not my textbook parameters of my setup but acceptable to me.
    usdcad1.PNG
     
    Sackie, 23rd Jun, 2021
    #72
  13. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Sackie, 24th Jun, 2021
    #73
    Brumbie likes this.
  14. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,058
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Trade: 9 (open)
    Pair    : usd/jpy
    Time frame: 15 chart
    Trading direction: short (down)

    usdjpy.PNG
     
    Sackie, 24th Jun, 2021
    #74
  15. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,058
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Trade: 8 (close)
    Pair: usd/cad
    Time frame: 15 chart
    Trading direction: short (down)
    win/loss: Loss
    Risk to reward: 1:0

    usdcad15.PNG
     
    Sackie, 24th Jun, 2021
    #75
  16. MWI

    MWI Well-Known Member

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    OMG, so technical and I thought I liked candle sticks, but prefer to use them just for stocks.
    I remember few years back when my treasurer of a bank friend mentioned how can personal traders outsmart the software bank traders who trade in some weird timeframes indeed.
    Interesting thread @Sackie. :rolleyes: Let's see what the end result would be?
    It reminds me when few years back I went for my eye appointment and I saw the optometrist looking at some screens. So I asked what he was doing and then he was trading silver!:p
    I prefer to do my gardening instead, or baking for fundraisers, or just being outdoors! ;)
    Don't neglect your Vitamin D!:D
     
    MWI, 24th Jun, 2021
    #76
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  17. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    How big were the wins….. I am just nosey… :)
     
    MTR, 24th Jun, 2021
    #77
  18. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Yep that's the aim for this particular new setup I'm trying. I've done this many times over the years and most don't show promise after 50 trades. The setups which do, I trade. I'm happy overall with the little time I spend and my results over the last few years.

    Like I was saying to Brumbie , it's an extra income stream for me, nothing I focus on too much at all.

    Always will be a real estate freak :D
     
    Sackie, 24th Jun, 2021
    #78
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  19. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I think for this to work you will need passion to keep forging ahead

    I am not sure I am feeling the love:(
     
    MTR, 24th Jun, 2021
    #79
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  20. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Yep. If you don't enjoy the process then....It'll be infinitely harder. It's definitely not a get rich quick scheme. At least not for me. Just a small extra something:)
     
    Last edited: 24th Jun, 2021
    Sackie, 24th Jun, 2021
    #80
    MTR likes this.
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