Crypto Sackie's crypto prediction - to reach 30k.

Yeah now's not really the time to be short BTC, only for scalps. It's been going down for 3 months, now is up only for the next 3

 

Luna have another 8 billions to spend on buying BTC... That will have a huge multiplier effect... I won't be surprise that it might return to all time highs by the end of this year.... Damn it! That means i won't have enough time to load up....

 

I hope so. I'm all long 4 lots with leverage. I will keep emptying profits from the account to control possible losses as much as possible in case of a quick crash. I never imagined i'd trade BTC, but the opportunity looks too good to pass up.

As for its fundamentals, I have no idea. I trade certain patterns of price action.

 

Honestly, I think we will have a big deleveraging event sometime in the next 12-18 months.

That will be the golden ticket.

The current implied interest rates in Aus are saying we will have a rate above 3% by the end of 2023.
https://www.asx.com.au/data/trt/ib_expectation_curve_graph.pdf

Globally, all money markets are pointing to the same thing.

Obviously we won't actually reach those kind of interest rates as something will break beforehand and when it does, that will be the opportunity of a decade in my opinion to load up on cheap BTC. I am looking for $20-30k/BTC

 

Fundamentals never looked better to be honest

I sincerely hope you make a bucket load, the next few weeks/months could get very interesting.

 

Final leg until a collapse? If you thought it would crash, why wouldn't you just save your money and buy later (that's what I'm planning on doing btw)

 

Because all markets will most likely go much higher first, the issues are still a good 6-12 months out from happening. Big market players want exit liquidity.

Thing is, there are no certainties in markets, there is only probabilities so you need to be involved until you see the signs to get out. Even though everything is lining up for a big global recession, doesn't mean it will be guaranteed to happen (Covid lockdowns worldwide stopped the world for 2 years and yet here we are much much higher) or that it can't be kicked down the road further.

 

Thanks mate.

My 0.002c opinion. I think so too. The thing is, for prices to have stopped falling and now rising, only the big money, institutional traders can move price like that. No one else. So it means they bought at the bottom and now taking prices higher (or higher to crash for lower). Fingers crossed not the latter.


My best guess. Wishful hopes

 

What platform are you using to trade?

 

I use a few for different things. CMC, pepperstone, Blackbull, COMSEC, IB,

Most of my decisions are made off trading view though.

 

On chain data also supports this, there has been heavy accumulation between $37-42K. This is the most concentrated area of support.



Also, even though price has held up pretty good, we have seen the biggest capitulation of long term holders (coin holders over 5 months old) ever! It's actually hard to believe, but this is exactly the kind of fuel needed for the next leg higher.



It's been one big consolidation since 2020

 

I'm still long. I added over last 2 days.

Watch bitcoin over the next weeks. I believe strong chance it's gonna climb up.

No guarantees

 

read somewhere that the cost for real miners to mine one bitcoin in a developed country is around $20k (electricty + costs) so as block subsidies and price reduces the cost of business and margins shrink considerably. So miners need to move to cheaper countries or risk paying more than they earn. Bitcoin press seems to pump Venezuela which it turns out is one of the cheapest to mine coins in.

 

By the sound of it, I wouldn't be surprised that you will start to HODL eventually haha. I am just DCA in, In retrospect, the reason that I didn't have nearly as much success in share market as my property investments is because of the lack of long term plan and a bit of paper hand from time to time. I know a few in my family circle who could have already being a crypto millionaire if they could just hold onto just 20% of their bitcoins. So i am going to apply the long term property investment mindset to bitcoin. Hopefully my small % investment will turn into multi million portfolio in 10 years time.

 

Good luck. My only advice is invest what won't hurt you to lose.

 

Thats right, like I said, its only small % so won't hurt too much if all goes pear sharped. But i think it should do well given it a few years. Won't be surprised if it reaches the gold market cap before the end of this decade given how much adoption has picked up in the last 2 years.

 

Fast approaching my 30k prediction when started this thread in September 21. . I did go long awhile back but quickly closed out those positions.

30k is very fast approaching now. Fyi no I haven't benefited that much from this prediction as I've been too busy shorting US markets, my other 'prediction' thread.

 

I can't see any reason on my chart to but BTC atm.
A counter trend trade at 36k mid Jan with a stop perhaps.
Other than that I see nothing that would make me want to buy BTC.

A run down to 27k may cleanout the mass of losing holders, break the "resistance" and then make a vertical run up once the shorts are all in.

 

This was my prediction/image posted at 21st September, 2021. The very first post in this thread. Prediction was to hit 30k or lower. At the time is was 43,874.






Fast forward to today:





Yes I (mostly, not totally) backed my convictions and shorted and did reasonably well. Jumped in and out at different times. At one point I went long and lost about 45k. Actually likely more than 1 time went long and made and lost. Overall did well. Didn't do nearly as well as shorting US markets because I had to focus on one area so decided to allocate a lot more capital to US equities.

I put it (profiting) down to fluking exceptional timing and a ******** of luck. Coupled with some good risk management (only thing I could really control, and even then not totally). Hands down, the hardest part to control is your own psychology. I'm definitely no expert. I say again, fluked exceptional timing.

 

Anyone care to crystal ball where BITCOIN goes to over the next 6 months?