Crypto Sackie's crypto prediction - to reach 30k.

Bitcoin to mission control, preparing our second attempt at landing at marker 30,000. Final thrust adjustment complete.

Bitcoin this is Mission Control, we see you looking beautiful out there. Your flight trajectory is on target for your second attempt. God speed.

 

Great discussion here, I have been pretty anti crypto myself up until recently where it survived China mining ban and put in a all time highs after that. I have started to take more serious interest in it and concluded that it is something more than just a Tulip mania. Bitcoin today is very different to bitcoin of few years back. The network effect is huge and theres a lot of very smart money investing in it. If prudent investors like Ray Dalio is making increasingly large allocation and Bill Miller is putting 50% of his personal wealth in Bitcoin, i think anyone with a curious mind should really have a second serious look at it.

 

Internet today is very huge. Much bigger than a decade ago. In fact we are introducing WW3 that is expected to be faster, better and more efficient. Doesn’t it mean that a share in the internet that I hold via my modem has a value?


See what I did there…

 

Its hard to predict where the price will go in the next month, or next year, it might well crush down to 10k or lower, but if the previous crashes and ban didn't kill it, i don't think anything else will kill it off with this level of maternity and network size. At the end of day, the value of any monetary system is based on trust. The trust in gold and diamond to hold value is not much different, the real application value is only very small % of its total market cap.

 

value is in the eyes of the beholder... If theres enough people believe in it, then you can use it as a medium of exchange or store of value.

 

That is true. However, if history is if any guide, when we assign value to non productive assets, like say tulips, or domain names, peoples attitudes can change very quickly

That said, it could take another 15 years for that to happen. Huge gains could be foregone. It could happen tomorrow as well. No one knows. Each tread their own path.

 

And hence the volatility that we have seen. Be as the years are passing by, its becoming less volatile. My bet is that it will keep go up in a 5 to 10 years horizon. I don't have a big position in it yet as it is a volatile asset and still have much to learn. but i do have a strong conviction that it will do really well given the growing network and usage amongst all that money printing in the fiat systems.

 

My take on crypto is if you have the risk tolerance for it, go for it. If someone has good risk allocation relative to their net worth, then it can make a good punt. Like any investment, know the risk, volatility and adjust your investment size accordingly. But selling your house to put your life savings into it??

 

yeah, the way I see it is, if it all goes to zero tomorrow, i will still live the same, then I am ok. Crypto, along with shares and ETFs, it will be my liquid asset bucket that I will build up in the next 5 years to hopefully hit my FatFIRE goal. Properties are too illiquid to make it happen.

 

Maybe back to $50k ?

 

Being relatively new to this space, i would like the prices go down more or stay where it is for the next year or so... Its a good time to load it up...

 

Almost reached back to the 30k mark, not quite though. Looks like it's consolidated and possibly on the climb back up.

Opinions on btc/usd?

 

Boom..nice call

 

Got pretty close to 30k, I think 5k off.

 

Did some shorting on the way down. Lost some profit when it started rising.

Now I'm long 4 lots btcusd from 46,800@DanW lol. I've put just enough money in the account to avoid a margin call and transferred the rest to a seperate account to avoid a flash crash skipping through my SL.

 

Same opinion as before, buy when its cheap, hedge when it gets expensive

I am not a expert trader so I am happy not to collect maximum gains, but instead maximum amount of BTC. This strategy is working for me, even after a 50% correction

 

I think we will get a great opportunity to stack cheap corn in the coming 12-18 months.

Bond yields are exploding right now and that is a sure sign there is trouble coming in the next few months.

Enjoy this ride up, but remember to hedge as we go higher, this is most likely the final leg in BTC, Equites etc.. Just my opinion

 

I agree that you need to understand the risk that you are taking when getting into BTC/crypto.

I took out equity last year at <3% for 30Y and put it into BTC. Sounds very risky, but to me it was actually the least riskiest thing to do. I am super confident that within the next 30Y, BTC will outperfom my mortgage repayment, and if I'm wrong my house will outperform my mortgage repayment lol sitting pretty here as the majority of my buys were under $40k.

 

It's the hardest market to read. You have a real baller (Do Kwon, founder of Luna) saying he is going to buy billions in BTC and then he actually does it and is pumping something ridiculous like $125m a day into BTC, so I would be careful with any shorts - very easy to get hurt.