NSW Rouse Hill / North Kellyville for PPOR?

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by fwmonger, 24th Nov, 2019.

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  1. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

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    Many of the houses you have selected are relatively large lots or have swimming pools. One looks like it is an ex display home.
     
  2. Thomacino

    Thomacino Well-Known Member

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    Don't know about Kellyville, but this week I did a valuation in the south eastern part of North Kellyville (Foxall Rd proximity).

    >$1.3m gets you a decent two storey approx. 250m2 dwelling of 4bed/2-3bath
    <$1.3m good fitouts with +300m2 dwelling of 5bed/3bath

    I wouldn't dwelling on areas being 'oversupplied' how is that even measured?? Subdivision always lead to oversupply but, eventually the area will absorb it. Also wouldn't you want to buy in an oversupplied market, assuming an uplift in market as it is currently evident.

    Your budget of $1.2m is an unfortunate budget as your in the middle of two local markets.

    Vacant land in North Kellyville is circa $650,000. A decent build of 4/2 will be $600,000 at least... $1.25m isn't that over budget? and will take 1-2 years to build..?
     
  3. KJA182

    KJA182 Well-Known Member

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    Looks pretty high, they look like the upper end / designer houses. I would expect more modest houses to be 1.1 - 1.2m
     
  4. fwmonger

    fwmonger Active Member

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    Ya, I'm looking for those upper end designer / ex-display homes. I'm only after the modest ones. But, they seem to be selling high too. For example, 3rd, 4th and 6th links in the list.
     
  5. fwmonger

    fwmonger Active Member

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    True. The budget seems to be a bit low for Kellyville and good enough or a bit high for a new home and land in North Kellyville.
     
  6. hash_investor

    hash_investor Well-Known Member

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    1.2 won't get you anything in Kellyville. You may be lucky to come across a few houses a year selling in that budget but they aren't desirable. And there is usually a reason they sell so low such as small land, small kitchen size, small rooms etc. 450 m2 double storey is going to be 1.3+.
     
  7. fwmonger

    fwmonger Active Member

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    So, looking at those sales figures I posted (forget the brand new designer homes), what do you think? Do they look like reasonable sales? I'm wondering if the prices are back up so quick or is it just the buyer's FOMO.
     
  8. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    If it falls 10% in the next 6 months, would you buy then or expect it to keep falling?

    if it goes up another 10% in the next 6 months, what will you do?

    there is no calculation or rule that tells you where the market should be.
     
  9. Paul@PAS

    Paul@PAS Tax, Accounting + SMSF + All things Property Tax Business Plus Member

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    I live in that areas and I dont agree.. anything ?? There are loads sub $1m that are spacious, quality etc. $1.2m requires something additional eg very large land size etc, exceptional finish. The $1m price point is a strong band of resistance for many buyers and splits the real estate market and has pulled down some homes from $1m+ but which are now rising. There are some smaller project 2 storey in some areas (Cattai Creek etc) that are late 1990s that are smaller with small family areas v's newer property and small lots unsuitable for a pool for example. Newer 2000s a little more generous as the market changed around that time. Kellyville is also a large suburb and ranges between Castle Hill (wrights Rd) and Beaumont Hills / NK and out to Glenhaven. Supply shortage is pushing up the sub $1m property at present. Older 1970s project homes in the older village area are a lower price point due to the need for renovation and unsuitable designs for modern needs. Many are knock down sites on larger lots. But high land prices limit duplexes etc v's a larger high spec new build on large land.

    North Kellyville can be very hit and miss with a mass of many small scale developments stitched badly together vs other suburbs done well (Rouse Hill, Beaumont Hills as examples) with far better evident streetscape and amenity. Foxall Rd v Hezlett for example are very much chalk v cheese. Many have purchased to find many multi level large block apartments, schools etc stuck around them seemingly in a strangely remote area later developed with no road improvements. Hezlett is a goat track and cant be wider even if it was improved. Loads of seemingly poorly built townhouses too. Transport, roads and the like are just appalling in some street and not others. Hezlett for example is just terrible vs Foxall Rd. Almost ghetto like with street and sites so small the abundance of cars is evident like a wreckers yard.

    Buying in NK will get a far newer home but with some trade offs. Two I know have built new there seem to have quality build issues with fast paced building a feature and both regret a new build for that reason. Neither can sell due to high additional completion costs (landscape and internals) and over supply surrounding them. Its worth looking at both and considering the issues with each. I recall buying 15 years ago and the same existed with Castle Hill v Kellyville.
     
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  10. MammaMia

    MammaMia Member

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    I agree with this summary and live in the area too. I would look for properties around Beaumont Hills and off Samantha Riley drive (Kellyville) for that budget.
     
  11. fwmonger

    fwmonger Active Member

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    What is your opinion about these sales then -

    https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-kellyville-132448610


    https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-kellyville-132523570


    https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-kellyville-132410234


    These are modest houses. Not new. Not top-quality designer homes but, still sold for $1.3m+. I'm not challenging you but, genuinely trying to understand why these sold high. I need to be able to value the property that I'll be interested in buying.
     
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  12. Thomacino

    Thomacino Well-Known Member

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    Each sales are different in their own right.. but sale 1 is obviously the largest parcel with superior ancillary imps with better floor plan and is presented better than sales 2 and 3. Sales 2 and 3 are more or less the same land size but I'd say sale 2 is furthest from amenities, but do note Dunbar Estate is the 'rich' area, Strathallen etc. Sales 3 seems to have gotten more then it should have, by about 50K.. house has no character, and is your definition of standard stock.
    I did say the market is on the rise, maybe sales 1 an 2 are good buys with sales 3 slightly pitched higher.
     
  13. Thomacino

    Thomacino Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. North Kelly was not a masterplan and feels more like a jigsaw puzzle with each developer doing their own thing.. Ponds on the other hand, presents well.
     
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  14. Paul@PAS

    Paul@PAS Tax, Accounting + SMSF + All things Property Tax Business Plus Member

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    I used that same example for someone else recently. The drive between Rouse Hill and Marsden Park is a stark contrast to parts of the NK area. The Ponds has many areas very very well planned and landscaped etc. Even the Stocklands site at Rouse Hill seems it had a Masterplan - Same council as NK and yet so different. Its like the Hills Council compulsory rain garden concept - What a joke. And it hasnt rained since. Its just bureaucratic rubbish that adds to costs.
     
  15. fwmonger

    fwmonger Active Member

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    When you say sale 3, did you mean 5 Redden Drive? Because thats the largest parcel of land actually.
     
  16. Esh

    Esh Well-Known Member

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    You can also buy a stunning home for that budget on a good block size in Stanhope Gardens and Kellyville Ridge. Both lovely areas
     
  17. Thomacino

    Thomacino Well-Known Member

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    Didn't realise the tabs were moving backwards;

    To clarify and edit previous post;

    Each sales are different in their own right.. but sale 3 (at 672m2) is obviously the largest parcel with superior ancillary imps with better floor plan and is presented better than sales 2 and 1. Sales 2 and 1 are more or less the same land size but I'd say sale 2 is furthest from amenities, but do note Dunbar Estate is the 'rich' area, Strathallen etc. Sales 1 seems to have gotten more then it should have, by about 50K.. house has no character, and is your definition of standard stock.
     
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  18. twobobsworth

    twobobsworth Well-Known Member

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  19. Paul@PAS

    Paul@PAS Tax, Accounting + SMSF + All things Property Tax Business Plus Member

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    I would argue all are spacious and modern floor plan. All are recently renovated from those images etc. The seller largely values the property you will be buying as much as you may think its you - Its them who has to sign. Those all seem on spec for price. The higher priced had exceptional external undercover tiled space and 2 rumpus areas and a pool etc and a 680m2 land area + 3 car garage etc. Then I argue the others fall under it and all seem comparable for inclusion and standard

    More modest homes in Kellyville may be a slightly lesser land size and more "conventional" re project home basis, older property in need of greater reno or with less granduer and space in less desirable areas eg in Dunbar many Australand builds are small family rooms, no rumpus areas and 4 tighter bedrooms often with external add ons to compensate (eg rumpus or alfresco). Or a larger footprint single level project. The 1998 standards for that price point at that time is now no comparison to others that are bigger

    eg

    upload_2019-12-20_16-4-34.png
     

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  20. fwmonger

    fwmonger Active Member

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    Is Dunbar estate the same as Duncraig?