VIC Recession?

ive been looking for wayyyyy longer than you and still havent figured it out!

 

There is some evidence to suggest property could hold strong through this and perhaps even get a bounce. During times of economic uncertainty people have a tendency to exit the volatility of the share market and move towards the “safe haven” of property. Obviously there are many other drivers in this circumstance but we will see how it plays out

 

Unfortunately the last time we had a major pandemic was over 100 years ago, so its pretty hard to quantify it against events like previous crisis that were caused by financial markets and stock market collapses.
In previous times during major pandemics property would almost become worthless , as once it was finished there was a decline in population, in the modern era obviously there are a lot less deaths.
But it will cause a big drop in immigration for a while and even probably a reasonable increase in vacancy rates in certain areas.
Then there is the question that a lot of people will have very strong feelings about filling our major cities up with more people.
Dont even think about social distancing once everyone has to go back to work in our major cities.

 

Have followed over 20 auctions in the past 3 weeks in Sydney (in person and online) with only a couple of those properties selling... There's already a 5-7% drop in prices compared to earlier in the year.

 

Same in Hunter valley region. Houses around 400-500k dropping 20k/5% online and there's more room after 1:1 negotiation.
By June or July might be more.

 

What areas?

 

Good analysis of the market and interesting reading . Reading Corelogic's prediction of the market they expect prices to fall marginally due to the governments bail out packages ie job keeper etc . and lack of supply .for eg melbourne prices droppedby 1% in june .What happens when the bail out packages are withdrawn and the banks stop offering home loan deferrals .when will we see markets fall ? or if a vaccine is found will none of this eventuate as confidence returns .Lots of if's?

 

Saw a decent property today listed for around $1.4m. Agent told me realistically guy will sell at $1.35m. Pre-covid probably would've gotten $1.5-6m if not more. Probably one of the cheaper ones I've seen. And very inner city (like 2km from CBD), easily rentable spot too, nearby will be a major development precinct in next 15-20 years (bigger than scale of Paramatta).

Not every house is falling like this though or every vendor is dropping prices. Now there's a bit of uncertainty so things are cheap - could get better or worse, no one knows, hence discounts in selected cases.

 

Didn't it go bankrupt and was bought out by the Gupta UK/Indian guy?

 

The shares have been written off... sadly they were bought in a trust with nothing to write them off against

 

There is never lack of demand to buy in good public school zones. Regardless of property boom or property downturn, first home buyers will always want to buy in good public school zones - both primary and secondary.

 

'The Dude'

They did promote their mascot as a slacker

 

Since my last post on this topic things have certainly changed in Perth anyways

We are very low on stock, blocks are flying out the door due to generous government grants. My relative sold all their development project in first week, same area/suburb as mine, so have started design work

We are really doing well in WA, with rents also picking up

Tip for anyone looking at Perth, inner city and also read thread on PC on Perth - post a bargain, some great advice

Oops, just realised this was Vic, I am still of the opinion here, tread lightly, higher risk market for obvious reasons