Recession over - Things looking Up!

Recession over - Victoria back in business and its likely we are at an inflection point now.


NoCookies | The Australian

Reserve Bank deputy governor Guy Debelle has effectively declared Australia is out of a technical recession, telling a Senate estimates hearing that the September quarter would show positive growth and the drag on the economy from Victoria would be less than first thought.

After recording a 0.3 per cent contraction in gross domestic product in the March quarter and a record 7 per cent contraction in the June quarter, the economy marked its first recession in 29 years.

The Reserve Bank's expectation of a positive September quarter now indicates the economy is out of a technical recession, regarded as two negative quarters of growth.

 

That would be nice, however it may be short lived. As Australia is renowned for essentially being an economy that heavily relies on immigration

immigration intake is likely to remain low for the foreseeable future..

 

Why? Migrants would be willing to go through quarantine, unlike vacationers.

 

Sweet!

 

Economic recovery will be 'unpredictable and uneven' RBA warns as it models 50pc property price fall

The next minute, "RBA models 50 percent property price drop" (sensationalistic headline warning..)

 

I could be wrong. But RBA is very negative on the property mkt now days. 3 weeks of media positive gossip is followed by RBA negative sentiment. It happened last two months.

The most on the mkt want the price to go so they can make money. RBA doesn’t think the mkt go up through govt help.

 

must be the shortest recession i've ever been through

 

Immigration is a two way street, there are twice as many ex expats returning than the usual new migrant arrivals . Some migrants are still coming, I have got some who are very happy to do quarratine in a fancy hotel in Sydney paid for by their employer. Australia is one of the best countries to be in at the moment and doing 2 weeks quarratine is nothing , better than being locked up in some **** hole and working for peanuts overseas. That will cause high demand for housing and keep the Harry Dents washing more egg of their face with one hand while scratching their head with the other saying WTF.

 

Money works how many billions did the govt pump since March?

 

For the context from that article:

"As an example, one scenario that would see a major bank's capital ratio fall below 6 per cent — that is well into its capital-conservation buffer — would be a fall in property prices of 50 per cent, GDP declining by 20 per cent and unemployment rising to 20 per cent," Ms Bullock said.

"A downturn of this magnitude has not been observed since the Great Depression and, even then, capital ratios remained about prudential minimums.

"This confirms that the likelihood of a major bank failing is very low. But there are vulnerabilities."

That has nothing to do with RBA 'expecting' remotely the drop to that extent. It is a modelling exercise. Every large business does that too to stress-test their cash flows, supply lines and overall health (and now the Boards of the companies are required to get the management to do that) to observe the 'critical trigger limits'.

 

Only cost 100billion plus thrown at the economy in free money

 

... and money well spent.

I actually thought it was gonna cost a lot more ...

 

You're first thoughts will more accurate

 

Never said it wasn’t , playing with yourself if you think it’ll hide the fundamental mess it’s in forever tho

 

The fundamental mess of the gfc was never solved either.

The next boom still happened.

 

I never said you did .

I was adding a quality/value component to your post .

It looks like a lot of people are playing with themselves in USA and Europe .

Let’s hope they don’t get too excited as they are already in a massive mess .

Let’s pray Australia doesn’t take their lead ...

 

I’m in Europe at moment , not too bad
Back in December let you know then

If it is an economic mess , clean up again like 2008.
I thought I’d only see one chance of a lifetime to make easy money , maybe it’ll be 2 .

 

I'm not sure if you're being literal here but did you only really expect to see one economic downturn in your entire life? ~75 years?

 

I did, big time.

Now I am no longer in accumulation phase .

 

I saw this article yesterday saying how we're only technically out of a recession, and that realistically we still have a lot of challenges. All I could think was...no s*** sherlock, people get paid to write stuff this stupid?

'Recession over' headlines are lazy and ignore the reality of most Australians | Greg Jericho

He's so condescending with his logic too. Us coming out of a recession is only based on the technical definition of a recession. Sure, I agree. But then us going into the recession was only based on the technical definition of a recession, too.

World shuts down for 9 months. Economy is going to have problems. OMG this man is a genius. If he didn't point it out I think I'd be utterly lost.

"Journalists"