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Recession and Financial crisis indicator

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Tekoz, 14th Dec, 2016.

?

When the next financial crisis will happens ?

  1. It's already happening

    5 vote(s)
    14.3%
  2. 2017

    9 vote(s)
    25.7%
  3. 2018

    5 vote(s)
    14.3%
  4. 2019

    4 vote(s)
    11.4%
  5. 2020 and beyond.

    10 vote(s)
    28.6%
  6. There is no such thing as GFC

    2 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. Tekoz

    Tekoz Well-Known Member

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    Hi All,

    Subscribing to Phil Anderson premium report for $99 annually, I can see that there is correlation between the Sky scrapper and the Global Financial Crisis.

    Here's the article and its explanation: The Cantillon Effect | Phil Anderson

    As per this independent article: Skyscrapers: How tall is too tall? | Pursuit by The University of Melbourne Kingdom Tower in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia will be the tallest tower on the planet when it opens in 2019.

    So shall we prepare to sell the property and buy some physical Gold bullion next year before the tallest building is completed on 2019 ?
     
  2. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Western Australia is already in a recession. I don't think the rest of Australia is yet.
     
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  3. Tekoz

    Tekoz Well-Known Member

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    Hm.. yes, you are right.
    NSW and VIC so far stagnating or plateau.
     
  4. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    NSW Stagnating ???

    Seriously ??

    Cliff
     
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  5. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    NSW will keep growing but most likely at more moderate levels. OTP units will have some pain over the next 12-36 months but all the doom and gloom 40-60% bust Australia wide many have comically predicted is just that - comical.
     
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  6. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    If we could predict it.....it wouldn't be a crisis!
     
  7. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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    and...you know its comical based on??????? please share how you can see what the future holds...12months....24...36 months....
     
  8. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I use my crystal ball from the Wizard of Oz ;)
     
  9. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Supply and demand. Australian property is not going to drop 60% nation wide. Is it possible? Absolutely anything is possible. Is it likely? not even close.
     
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  10. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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    Not even close hey...okay.
     
  11. Hedgy

    Hedgy Well-Known Member

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    Can't comment on Vic, but no way is NSW stagnating
     
  12. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo midas touch Premium Member

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    Even less so when we are referring to the economy in general.
     
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  13. EconomicAcrobat

    EconomicAcrobat Member

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    Spot on! Given the huge oversupply of apartments in Melbourne and the lack of demand the drop is likely to be 70%!

    Seriously it won't be that bad but you just can't use supply and demand as a catch all defence as there has been so much development over the last 5 years to meet demand it has overshot the mark and created excess supply in Brisbane, Melbourne and to a lesser extent Sydney.
     
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  14. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I'm not doubting certain markets will drop, stagnate and go flat over the next few years, but not all markets Australia wide. That's another whole different scenario.
     
  15. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    yes you can...supply and demand
     
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  16. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    well another quarter of negative GDP growth and we'd be in a technical recession at least. :D
     
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  17. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Not sure I want to like that post because I don't really *want* Australia to go into recession, I just think it's unavoidable at this point
     
  18. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    Unless we have a Depression, then I don't think a 60% drop across the board would ever happen.

    Steve Keen - who is supposedly an expert economist - predicted a 40% drop a few years ago....imagine all the Sydney people now if they had have listened to him.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 15th Dec, 2016
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  19. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

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    In my mind a technical recession (2 x successive quarters of negative national GDP decline) is somewhat likely within the next 24 months. Perhaps (based on a few sources I've read) a 40-50% chance during calendar 2017 or 2018.

    Should this happen, the mainstream news will go berserk over it thus driving mounds of negative consumer and investor sentiment. From here it is then a downward spiral/self-fulfilling prophecy if you will, that some property values will come off the boil, due moreso to current recession-market sentiment than actual fundamentals.
     
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  20. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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    Anything is possible