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QBE Australian Housing Outlook Report 2015-2018

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Coota9, 29th Oct, 2015.

  1. Coota9

    Coota9 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Report produced by QBE
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: 30th Oct, 2015
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  2. Gingin

    Gingin Well-Known Member

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    Buy a house in brisvegas +13% by 2018. P 64
     
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  3. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    Nice PDF. thanks for sharing Coota9

    BIS in 2013 predicted Sydney in a rising market:
    • ~20% increase for 2013-2015 ( 3 years about 7-8% increase per year)
    • Actual would be ~60%, ie 3 x more than BIS prediction

    BIS today (2015) predicts Brisbane in a rising market:
    • 13.2% increase for 2016-2018 ( 3 years)
    • Would we anticipate a 40% increase for the next 3 years?
     
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  4. Coota9

    Coota9 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Certainly hope so @RetireRich101 ;)
     
  5. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    A bit surprised - they are not at all bullish on anything Melbourne. No surprises that brisbane is gonna smash the rest....
     
  6. Kai41314

    Kai41314 Well-Known Member

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    No surprises about Melbourne. @sash and @MTR also said middle ring of Melbourne is at 12 o'clock at the moment.

     
  7. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    id say Melbourne middle has a bit more to run. Its still going strong, whilst Sydney have noticeably slowed a bit.
    Thus, I would have thought they would give a bit more for Melbourne.
     
  8. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    [QUOTE="

    BIS today (2015) predicts Brisbane in a rising market:
    • 13.2% increase for 2016-2018 ( 3 years)
    • Would we anticipate a 40% increase for the next 3 years?
    [/QUOTE]

    I think it will be totally dependent on where and what you buy as to what you achieve.
    It could also be a shorter time frame dependent on economy, predicting interest rate rises may be the nail in coffin... not sure?

    I really don't like to make any predictions regarding property at the moment because markets are changing very quickly and once again APRA is killing it IMO.

    I agree with Brissy being a low base and why investors are targeting this State, but I just am not sure how much steam it has???? 3 years???

    MTR:)
     
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  9. Greyghost

    Greyghost Well-Known Member

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    Unless I was looking to buy my PPR in melb, I would invest elsewhere..
    If you are looking to sell I'm Melb this side of Xmas, you should of had it listed 2 days ago.
     
  10. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    and if selling in Syd it should have been 3 months ago:)

    Melb still strong sold 3 properties in last 3 months, depending on area and price point as what will sell ?"..........FHB strong in this market

    mtr
     
  11. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    id say brisbogan has about 3 yrs left in this cycle. What will be interesting is what happens when commodities especially oil/gas rise- and I suspect that's 3 yrs from now- corresponding with the very top/turning the corner of the brisbanes market cycle.
    Increases to interest rates will have a greater affect on , id say, every other Australian capital more than Brisbane. The exception will be prestige in Sydney and mel- which will be driven by money most likely from overseas and thus not subject to local rates. I actually think the prestige in Brisbane will play second fiddle in the next few yrs. The 500k-1m market in Brisbane is what has, and what will, perform strongly ex oversupplied CBD stock and poorly located outer areas.
     
  12. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    Usually when you see articles like this, they're 3-6 month delayed. So the Bris 2016 growth has probably happened now, and Syd/Melb may have already peaked.
     
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  13. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    not sure I follow you...
    Agreed they take time to compile such reports- 3-6 months is about right.
    So, they would have reported stuff 3-6 months prior , and not in 2016. Besides, the cycle is not over, not this year, not next, doubt even in 2017.
    Sydney has most likely peaked, but reports and data have showed its in pockets and not widespread- and Melbourne is still going ok for now [ medians and auction numbers are still ok].
     
  14. Kai41314

    Kai41314 Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm...Melbourne got an auction clearance rate for 66% today. That is shocking. MTR is right - APRA is killing it. Hold on, maybe that is related to the Melbourne Cup? Still almost 500 auctions though.

     
    Last edited: 31st Oct, 2015
  15. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    66% is not shocking. Sure its not 80% like it was a couple of years back, but 66% isn't shocking. Dunno if its related to the cup. Will be interesting to see what will happen if rates are cut on cup day.
     
  16. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Just looking at that now. In Victoria, 67% clearance rate from 433 auctions reported. Keep in mind that is just as of today. More are likely to be reported over the next couple of days.

    Also, this is Melbourne Cup weekend, so not many auctions scheduled. I don't find the result shocking.

    More than 5,000 auctions are scheduled for November – expected to be the biggest auction month of the year. That is huge! A clearance of around 70% for 5,000 auctions would be massive!
     
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  17. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    We won't really know what is happening until after next weekend. Anyway, my agent had a home open today. 6 groups through. 5 asked for contracts. IMO the market is still going strong.
     
  18. bumskins

    bumskins Well-Known Member

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    That generally doesn't matter, because you will have more reported on both sides of the ledger. The Saturday clearance rate is enough to know where the market is sitting.

    http://www.domain.com.au/news/good-...gest-ever-spring-auction-day-20151031-gknkrc/

    Sydney's clearance has well and truly been dropping as volumes increase. 63% today. The majority of areas you should of auctioned 3+ months ago. Still a few regions performing strongly.

    I think whether Brisbane does ok or not will really come down to timing. If Sydney/Melbourne investors take a hit to their portfolios in those respective cities, how hard are they going to attack Brisbane? I only see Brisbane going up if Sydney/Melbourne continue to or they at-least flat line.
     
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  19. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Already has..just not the big rate of growth syd/Mel has had in the past. How hard will they attack? No one really knows, but I agree with your opinion that a continuous downward trend especially in syd will see more Mexican peso's into Brisbane. A fair number of Sydney investors on this forum have already done that.
     
  20. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    Just commenting on timing of forecasts generally.

    An aside, Melb market has slowed down dramatically in most pockets. Only select pockets and sectors going ok.