International Punting on the Brexit

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by xactly, 15th Jun, 2016.

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  1. Casteller

    Casteller Well-Known Member

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    There is no actual reason, a lot of the older and more parochial folk were scared into it by a pack of lies (the pushers of these lies backing away from them already).
    How Britain Tricked Itself Into Leaving Europe

    A sorry saga indeed for the UK. I think the nation "UK" will become a thing of the past, eventually there will be just England, in the same way the USSR disappeared and now we have a smaller version, Russia.
     
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  2. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    A couple of veteran fund managers comments. Seems they are looking at it as a potential buying opportunity. As for what happens down the track who knows? No one of course.

    Personally I don't care. I just take advantage of these type of events whenever they happen. That is, it's not a matter of timing but always having something set aside for such events. In our case it's mostly LOC(s). Buy like crazy. Then progressively repay debt with likely large dividends having purchased stuff dirt cheap (= higher yield) then repeat when the next market calamity comes along. Boring, simple but not easy when most are heading for the exits and self professed gurus & media reports are declaring the end of the world!

    And do I sell existing holdings? NO. Just keep enjoying the dividends, even if they may be potentially somewhat reduced, whilst looking forward to the NEW income streams purchased dirt cheap in times of gloom.
    As usual not liscenced to give advice. Given that traders, market timers and doomsayers declare me to be a stupid old idiot who would want it anyway.
     
    Last edited: 27th Jun, 2016
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  3. truong

    truong Well-Known Member

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    It’s fear indeed, not xenophobia.

    Fearful people feel helpless. Feeling helpless, they want to barricade themselves. That’s why the current rise of isolationìsm in western nations (Europe and US) is rather a sign of weakness and not the show of strength that independence entails.

    People, especially those poorer and less educated, feel they’ve lost control of their lives while at macro level the West as a whole goes through the realisation that it doesn’t hold power any more and world affairs are getting out of its control.

    Feeling sad about this actually because despite its failures western civilisation has been enlightened in many ways.
     
  4. truong

    truong Well-Known Member

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    Geoff Wilson is generally on the money, a reason why I’ve been loaded up with WAM, WAX, etc… for many years. He’s slamming excessive market negativity and he’s right. However it can’t be denied that the West is in a slow and steady decline. This is existentialist and a much greater threat than market volatility.
     
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  5. BingoMaster

    BingoMaster Well-Known Member

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    British historian Niall Ferguson (his financial histroy series "the ascent of money" is excellent btw), writing on Brexit:

    Nocookies
     
  6. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    A good common sense article which will appeal to contrarian investors:

    Taking Stock of European Equities
     
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  7. Foxy Moron

    Foxy Moron Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely respect your opinion - buts lets just witness the solidarity of the remaining 27 members over the next six months shall we ? Even Soros came out today and announced the eventual dissolution of the EU as 'practically irreversible'. It won't be easy, but Britain will come through this thing in decent shape after a couple of years. Things could get a whole lot worse for the EU from here though. Personal view only - the aging backward rednecks have done the brits a favour.
     
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  8. Skilled_Migrant

    Skilled_Migrant Well-Known Member

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    A divided UK and a divided Europe is a favour for Britain ?
    Memories of war need to be refreshed for peace to exist.
     
  9. Foxy Moron

    Foxy Moron Well-Known Member

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    Not sure that comment is appropriate to this context Skilled Migrant. Are you channeling Neville Chamberlain now ?
     
  10. Skilled_Migrant

    Skilled_Migrant Well-Known Member

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    Just reminding the reasons for Europe's unification to those rejoicing in its disintegration. Neville Chamberlain is incidental.
     
  11. Foxy Moron

    Foxy Moron Well-Known Member

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    Okay cheers.
    Certainly not rejoicing in heartache and pain that is to come for many. No-one wishes for that. But acknowledging something was always going to give, so better to deal with it sooner rather than later was was i was getting at. Sorry if I offended.
     
  12. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

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    my punt was a bit different.

    shorted the DOW (DIA - filled 175.95, -3.5%), SP500 (SPY filled 204.95, - 3.7%) and Russell2000 (IWM filled 112.95, -3.7%) for Friday night.

    Didn't catch the top of any of them and they all took ages to fill (hours) but the 1:20 index leverage is working wonders right now.

    Nail biting stuff trying to work out new levels of support/resist on the fly because you're not getting filled.
     
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  13. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: 28th Jun, 2016
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  14. jhmtaylor

    jhmtaylor Well-Known Member

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  15. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    FTSE100 +2% in early trade.
     
  16. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    Just had a look. UK Market CAPE is 11x at current levels. Long term average 16x.
    Market yield 4.5% vs. HSBC 3 year term deposit rate at 1.5% which is supportive.

    UK was cheap to begin with. I don't expect huge downside from 6100pts.
    If there is, colour me interested.
     
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  17. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Yep, not looking too scary at this moment:
    Premarket Stock Trading - CNNMoney

    As for what lies ahead who knows? Markets just seem to be a perpetual wall of worry. Accept it, more often than not that's just the nature of the beast. Pick the right timeframe. That is, the long term. Not so scary then. In the shorter term the more scary the better especially for younger accumulators. Scary = opportunity. Embrace it and be rewarded.

    Cheers
     
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  18. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    As an extension of this excellent commentary by Platinum, more from the AFR which is the contrarian approach I subscribe to:
    That is, Cash and Bonds not only offering pathetic income but what little income you get is likely to be taxed more heavily. Compare the cut in interest income against dividends in recent years. And they say shares are risky! What rubbish. When it comes to income give me Franked dividends anyday!
     
    Last edited: 29th Jun, 2016
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  19. Pier1

    Pier1 Well-Known Member

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    The lack of any plan let alone a detailed plan by the Leave Team for post referendum leads me to suspect this commentary may be on the money:
    I do not believe that Brexit will happen - FT.com
     
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  20. Casteller

    Casteller Well-Known Member

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    Every time one of these threads bumps up just reminds me how damn stupid this decision is.

    Best thing a young person in the UK should do now is emigrate to the EU and get residency while they still can. Dump the fools that don't give a stuff about your future. Choose Ireland if the language barrier is daunting. Or Switzerland If you have some skills.