International Punting on the Brexit

Ha! GSK is going up beyond where it started the day!

JB

Edit: no it's not!

 

Personally, just placed a cheeky buy order for Unilever on the LSE. Might get hit today.

 

The lower the currency - the better for the economy. Scots had their say, it's too late now. FTSE is down - good. You can make money shorting.
Look at the bigger picture. Brits are out of the EU, no more trouble with disasters like Greece and Spain. They have to worry about themselves now.
EU will have to have changes or it'll die. It's a win win situation for everyone.

 

Core position, hopefully never. Speculative holdings, probably still years from now at much higher prices. I didn't buy any specifically as a brexit punt.

 

Edit: yes it has!

aaarrrggghhh

 

Its all the bloody foreign currency earnings. ULVR is off a measly 0.55% in GBP.

 

Possibly, as London is the second most important economic and financial centre in the world, the UK economy is dependent on financial services.
Retaliatory trade action by EU member states is a possibility or it may lead to other countries also exiting the European Union.
Do countries like the Netherlands have anything to gain by propping up weaker Eastern European nations?

Loss of control of its immigration policy with huge inflows of economic refugees appears to have been a major factor in public sentiment.
Imagine Australia not being able to control its own immigration policy, unthinkable.

 

Of course the Netherlands and other stronger economies like Germany have something to gain by being in league with the eastern european nations, Greece, etc. They share the same currency, and if Greece etc weren't in the Euro currency, the currency would be a whole lot higher. So for an export nation like Germany that sells all their BMWs etc in foreign currency, they make a lot more money that way.

Different with Britain due to their separate currency.

If you look at countries like Norway etc that arent in the EU but still trade with them, they still have to pay the same fees to get the same access. So its pretty much a farce that leaving will help Britain's economy.

Its due to a fear of immigration, IMO. And people living in the past who think Britain is still a great world power or something. This is borne out in the voting numbers - primarily older people who voted to leave, and something like 75% of people under 25 voted to stay. Also primarily London who voted to stay. Young, city people, who are used to actually coming into contact with immigrants, voted to stay. All the older country people who never see immigrants but are nonetheless very afraid of them, voted to leave.

 

It's because young people are more thinking outside reality than older folks who had seen some stuff in their lives. I know a few people from London, they have all voted to leave. Norway is not the right example, those guys are oil rich and so they don't need to be a part of some union.
Independence will help British economy, because no one will dictate them rules anymore.

 

I can't believe I am agreeing with barnes on something...

Good on them for growing a set of balls and not being dictated to about who comes to their country I say.

 

If Britain withdraws the right of EU citizens to live and work in the UK, there will be reciprocal withdrawal of rights of the million+ UK citizens living in Europe, a disaster for them (not so much me because I have another option if I have to use it). Really, I can't see many positives for the UK, big mistake, now the EU is telling them not to delay and leave as soon as possible.

 

It was ballsy, sure. Ballsy and stupid.

As for it being a good thing, restricting immigration. It's just playing to stupid people's fears and xenophobia. Look at Japan - they have far too many old people retired vs young people working. They could have fixed this with immigration, but they have had tiny amounts of immigration for years and therefore despite the young workforce working productively, the demographics are simply too far against them, and the economy has gone nowhere for a few decades.

Germany is importing a younger workforce via taking in refugees, which might actually give it favourable demographics vs the countries with ageing, xenophobic populations.

 

Because choosing to remove the power of an undemocratically elected commission over your national parliament isn't a positive?

Sure, they'll suffer for it financially in the short and possibly slightly longer term, but financial hardship is a relatively small price to pay for remaining a sovereign nation.

 

And there we go...Anyone who dares to protect their boarder is xenophobic, racist, old, out of touch etc. Look at the mess they have had over there the last decade with terrorism, crime etc. They can't even deport a rapist or murderer. Please.

I wonder how the Uk survived before the EU or how the rest of the world manages...

 

You can write my post off as political correctness, or whatever your point is, but the stats are there to back it up. The age of voters, their levels of education, which area they came from and whether they voted to stay or leave. More highly educated tended to vote to stay, as did younger people. London - high levels of education, high levels of immigration - all boroughs voted to stay.

On the other hand the UKIP party's main ad in the "leave" campaign was a line of refugees with the words "breaking point". The photo had one white man at the front who's face was edited out to make sure the whole group looked foreign. Not xenophobic, fear mongering at all, oh no. Please.

Here is an oldish man you might want to listen to. It's Kerr Neilson from Platinum Asset Management, who knows a thing or two about world markets and economies. His take on why a Brexit is "simply an emotional plea" starts at 1:02:00 and goes for a minute or so.

 

Clever. How's that working for you?

 

To want to have your own Country - independant of others, your own borders - and the ability to protect them and control them, to have that ability to control your own financial situation, the ability to have your own Government - is the cornerstone for democracy.

It is not xenophobic, or racist, or bigoted - GB has an enormous immigration history and multi-cultural history, and they can still have that with all the previous rules in place.

To have a "world order" - or in this case a European one - where there are no borders etc - is rose coloured glasses and kumbaya....like having a private Club and then protesters demand you allow all in - and the Club is destroyed.

Not the best analogy; but you get what I mean.

GB is one of the most successful and prosperous Countries in the history of Earth....their current situation demands they help to prop up Countries such as Greece etc - who are clearly not pulling their weight.

I don't blame them for wanting to get out and run their own show.

Imagine if Aus became part of a wider Pacific Rim organisation with one Gubb and so forth...no thanks.

I like our Private Club; and we should keep on setting the Membership bar high.

 

Lots of hyperventilating going on here by a few. I am sure the home of the magna carta, property rights, parliamentary democracy, the common law etc. will be just fine in the long run. The European experiment has failed. Boris will be feeling positively Churchillian at the moment, expect some spectacular flourishes

And a contrarian view; I think in this case substituting "educated" for "indoctrinated" is apt.

 

The greatest thinker in British history pinpointed the characteristic that drove the English to Brexit back in 1941

From Orwell’s ‘England, your England’
“In England patriotism takes different forms in different classes, but it runs like a connecting thread through nearly all of them… In the working class patriotism is profound, but it is unconscious. The working man’s heart does not leap when he sees a Union Jack. But the famous ‘insularity’ and ‘xenophobia’ of the English is far stronger in the working class than in the bourgeoisie. In all countries the poor are more national than the rich, but the English working class are outstanding in their abhorrence of foreign habits. Even when they are obliged to live abroad for years they refuse either to accustom themselves to foreign food or to learn foreign languages. Nearly every Englishman of working-class origin considers it effeminate to pronounce a foreign word correctly. During the war of 1914-18 the English working class were in contact with foreigners to an extent that is rarely possible. The sole result was that they brought back a hatred of all Europeans, except the Germans, whose courage they admired. In four years on French soil they did not even acquire a liking for wine. The insularity of the English, their refusal to take foreigners seriously, is a folly that has to be paid for very heavily from time to time. But it plays its part in the English mystique, and the intellectuals who have tried to break it down have generally done more harm than good. At bottom it is the same quality in the English character that repels the tourist and keeps out the invader.”

 

It's going to be messy over the next few years as the UK unravels from the EU. So many policies and laws will need to be rewritten which will cause uncertainty for businesses.

Probably after a recession and job losses due to big business moving out and into the EU, opportunities will present and England will grow once again.

Right now due to the sudden drop in the pound, inport costs are going to go up, jobs will be lost. Pretty much a certainly.