International Punting on the Brexit

Yeah, they have all gone down.

 

Maybe I am under-estimating the impact of this. I wouldnt have thought much would change. Esspecially not initially.
Sure - I was expecting the pound to take a hammering (if Leave won). I actually thought it would be more severe than what it has been so far.

But over the next week or so things will settle as the initial reactions settle. The GBP will stabalise at a lower level.
It will still take a while (a couple of years) before the final exit takes place. And long term I think it will be better for the UK.

However, I dont know all the facts so could be missing something pertinant. Im reading a lot about the potential recessions and crash of the EU. Plus credit markets freezing etc Im not seeing it, and think its a bit 'gloom and doom' ish.
But maybe Im wrong.

Blacky

 

Any idea what Gold has done in the last 24hrs?

 

Wow this completely sux. Glad I transferred 80k sterling out of the UK into Spain 6 months ago.

I wonder if Spain will ask us residents with UK passports to leave? They'll certainly hit foreign UK investors with more taxes like they do other non EU states, EU membership has a lot of benefits.

 

Yep. shot through the roof.

 

not sure i would expect it to go up as a safe haven asset.

BUt in the medium to long term it could go down depending on economic prosperity.

Of course unless all the central bank negative interest rates cause a flight from FIAT currencies into SOLID GOLD...

 

Say this today, brilliant !

Michael McCarthy ‏@MMcCarthy_CMC
"Brexit could be followed by Grexit, Departugal, Italeave, Czechout, Oustria, Finish, Slovakout, Latervia, Byegium. Only Remania will stay"

 

Wrong. Good for UK first of all. Probably bad for Europe, but they get what they deserve. World would be a lot cleaner without stupid unions popping up everywhere.

 

What will happen to eurovision?

Will we see more Aussies in UK coming back to Australia?

 

UK is probably better out of EU and strengthen trade ties with traditional Commonwealth countries - India, Canada, Australia, NZ, etc.

 

Classification: For internal use only


We expect the Stoxx 600 to fall to 295 in the near term i.e. 15% downside potential from Thursday’s close. We expect defensive sectors to outperform, with staples, pharma and telecoms being the main beneficiaries. The most vulnerable sectors are banks, insurance and autos. On a country level, the UK is likely to outperform as a result of its defensive structure and a boost from a weaker sterling. Most vulnerable are peripheral indices, such as Italy and Spain, and cyclical indices, such as Germany.



We would expect 2017 UK GDP growth to be 0.9%, (1.2pp below the 'remain' scenario). The euro area will be negatively affected (-0.4pp at 1.1% in 2017). Central banks will likely act to dampen tighter financial conditions. FX liquidity swap lines are in place. At the very least, expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates. The ECB will likely communicate its readiness to act, but the most effective policies will probably face political constraints. We rank the ECB policy options in terms of likelihood.


'Leave' opens a period of lasting uncertainty. We think it will be three years before a new UK-EU deal is settled. Politics will determine the long-term cost. A 'leap forward' for European integration is unlikely.


Euro trade-weighted should be little changed. Expect the Stoxx 600 to fall 15% (to 295) in the near term. The Bund yield should trade around -10 to -15bp. Periphery assets will likely be under pressure, especially bank equities. In an orderly sell-off expect the iTraxx Europe (IG) CDS index to widen 25-100bp.


The ramifications for the global economy are more limited. 0.2pp off our 2017 global GDP growth estimate to 3.4% still means acceleration next year. There are downside risks. Triggering a European banking crisis is one. A confluence of global shocks (e.g. a China hard landing) is another.

 

This will be very bad for the UK. There will be little point in international companies investing there if they want access to the EU market. It is likely there will be a second Scottish referendum and they will leave the UK and remain in Europe. The UK will start to fall apart.

 

Yeah I think Scotland might reconsider staying in the UK. Big changes on the horizon. But from the get go the UK was not participating in the EU like the other states, but it still is a surprise!

 

my prediction was betting on the brexit being a reality

now that it is:

buy Aus indexs/LICs if major dip.
Buy consumer staples British big brands directly as the FTSE falls.

sit tight.

 

Got gold? Record high today in A$.

 

Problem is the big LSE listed consumer staples stocks wont fall much. Most of their earnings are foreign currency and they are the safe havens. I'm with you though....I hope there are some opps.

 

So what do people think will be worth buying following the brexit and what time frame do you think you need to get in to buy?

 

Now that's it's at record highs.....when will you sell?

 

Pound in Worst Day Since Banking Crisis as `Brexit' Fears Bite

Scotland Is Already Hinting at Another Referendum to Leave the U.K. After Brexit Vote

FTSE 100 set to drop 8.5pc and sterling falls to three decade low as Britain votes Leave in EU referendum

Sorry, my bad, good news all around for the UK!

 

One of my shares just dropped 60%, then back to 20%

Interesting times for brave people with cash to buy.

JB