International Punting on the Brexit

usually big markets crash and overreact to big changes.
So how would you profit from the Brexit?

Buy an unhedged FTSE index?
Buy a couple of UK leaders?
The market is jittery but it always reverts to the mean

Most of the time I plod along conservatively but every now and again the news throws up a punt opportunity.

 

Google "how to play brexit" and you will get all kind of ideas...... this might tell you something though. (As the great Howard Marks would say "who doesn't know that?'). The good stuff that I want cheap is unlikely to sell off

 

There is a good quote from a person called "Jim-Cramer" and rather then trigger any internet alerts..

"There is always a "BULL" market somewhere"..

Cramer's game plan for next week

 

Would need to have some confidence that a Brexit will happen. Can currently get 2.37 on Sportsbet if you're confident a Brexit will be happening...

Otherwise it's a great time for those with a bit of powder in the keg to pick up long term holdings.

 

I think that the market has already priced in a serious downward correction as a result of a Brexit. So I think that come June 23rd, whatever the result, the fact that there is now certainty and a route forward will bring the market up.

I could be wrong, but I increased my stake in BKG.L today based on this theory.

JB

 

I am hoping for a Remain result, a lot of assets in the UK and relying on that income (as well as residency permit which could be at risk). Plus I want to move more AUD to the UK.

Having said that Ive hedged to the downside (via short FTSE and long Silver/GBP) in case they exit, the result will be massive, even bigger than when the Swiss dropped their peg last year (instant 15% revaluation).

 

After the brexit, when sterling crumbles, UK property will be a great cheap buy I'm $au terms and the yield is already better than Aussie property.

That is if you can get the finance.. Or have large cash.

 

The bigger problem would be if the UK change and going by the odds they may stay,but if they don't and go,then if you having another country pull out like Germany then there would be a real mess..

 

Decent bounce on the FTSE this morning. I understand that the odds of remaining in Europe have improved so I'm guessing the market is reacting.

Stake in BKG has gone up 8.55% since last Wednesday when I posted above.

It's nice to have things moving in this direction after the disasters I have had with RDSB and STAN.

JB

 

Firstly - I dont believe they will vote to exit. Most polls are indicating about a 45/45% split. With about 10% undecided. It is this 10% which will swing it to the 'status quo' due to the unknowns.

I believe that if they vote to exit, initially, the pound will get smashed. Purely due to the uncertainty.
Long term it would probably be benificial, or at the worst case - neutral impact.

Despite the above I sold out entirely of my GBP cash. It is a risk mitigation.
I will look to buy it back on the vote (provided it is 'stay').

Blacky

 

Yes pound would get smashed, and may overshoot (like the EURCHF last year), so could be opportunities to buy into GBP cheap for a few days before it stabilizes higher.

 

Stand fast. 12 hours or so until we know the result and the FTSE is rising fairly fast today. Lots of recent volatility.

JB

 

Not sure about cheaper property. Pound would fall but what about the thousands of retiree brits having to head home due to NHS care and other implications? Prices may be pushed upwards. All hypothetical anyway.

 

Can't believe Leave is in the lead!

 

Not that surprising but crap news for me, just sold a house there and was planning to bring proceeds over.

 

Europe & UK are fails. Let's hope nothing is rigged......and the sheep vote properly.

 

What do you mean?