Published articles and credibility...

I'm seeing a lot of reposting of published articles recently to add credibility to an argument or idea.

Whilst a published article does mean that someone has gone to the trouble of writing and an editor believes that it is worthy of broadcast.....this doesn't necessarily mean that the information contained within it is gospel.

The vast majority of articles are based on stats by research companies that often have vested interests. You'll notice that any article that mentions UBS, Lindsay David (or any one of his companies) is negative. Conversely articles written or that use stats from organisations that promote real estate growth are usually positive.

They all have their reasons for pushing their barrows and it usually involves mountains of cash.

I'm not saying that all their research is garbage but you'd certainly be unwise to take a position based on published articles alone. They are but a small tool that need to be approached with a handful of salt.

 

Very well said and it seems like the same posters over and over again for whatever reason...

They are usually a good read since most articles do have some good data but what i keep on noticing is the omissions of the positive bits.
For example whenever Private Banks funding costs is mentioned, and people say IR will rise due to the banks over reliance on these external fundings, they seem to always forget that these costs has been going down and that they are less than 20%. Minor omission but that can change an analysis completely.

It really seems just like the end of another cycle but some like to dramatise things around them or are simply pushing for an agenda.
Reminds me of a funny post on reddit about the US vs China economics war and the never ending calls for China's economy being completely done for :

• 1990 The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt.
  
• 1996 The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing
  
• 1998 The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth.
  
• 1999 Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
  
• 2000 Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
  
• 2001 Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
  
• 2002 Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
  
• 2003 New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China
  
• 2004 The Economist: The great fall of China?
  
• 2005 Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
  
• 2006 International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
  
• 2007 TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
  
• 2008 Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
  
• 2009 Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
  
• 2010 Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
  
• 2011 Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
  
• 2012 American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
  
• 2013 Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
  
• 2014 CNBC: A hard landing in China.
  
• 2015 Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
  
• 2016 The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
  
• 2017 National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash?
  
• 2018 McKinsey Global Institute: China faces a choice: Modernise or risk a very hard landing
  

 

It's all marketing strategy. To follow the real news, follow real indicators such as -

• Interest rate
• RBA minutes
• Job growth
• Inflation
• Aussie dollor

Media needs audience. Hence, more they can fill up with spice the better...

Anyone trying to buy, sell or hold based on what's being published in newspaper is not going to help at all ..

Cheers,

 

haha those headlines are amusing. China is absolutely killing it. They are a beast operating in their own realm. The world can't touch their economic toenails.

 

Eh, you know there's a billion different churches because no one can decide on the same interpretation of the gospel? So saying something isn't "gospel" is kind of funny!

 

Like the power blackouts in 2016 in Adelaide, you read the three different papers of The Age, Herald Sun & the Fin. Review and get three different answers on what is to blame.
With most complex stories, I usually take the advice of read all three of these newspapers and you should be then able to work out the complete story haha.

As for re-posting articles, what I would say to that is that I think also what plays into this is intellectual property fears-the amount of articles I read where they say 'and I know where these good property spots are' & then finish there (i.e. you gotta contact them to learn them the spots too). The internet is starting to make a mockery of intellectual property though-look at all the posts of people saying what this or that agent recommended-so much for secret spot if I can type your name and the word 'forum' after it & find out all I need to know.