Protectionism

Trump, Brexit, Duerte....even Pauline.

Protectionism seems to be making a comeback.

There is talk that Trump is Pro re-introducing subsidies, making it more expensive to import Chinese goods.

Does that threaten the Chinese economy? Or do they now have enough domestic demand to keep things going?

 

There may be a little thing like a FTA which previous governments may have signed preventing him from going down this path.

 

Contracts/Agreements can be rescinded.

 

I believe the US represents about 20% of their output. So anything the US does is going to have a big effect.

 

Just look at the numbers,and something like this is above our "Pauline"-- "Trump" and anyone else in the line-up,Trump would know full well who controls the bond markets in the US system,and the new middle class Chinese know full well the difference between coke acola and rice,maybe a few bumps but nothing will change...

 

money is like water- will flow to the place with least pressure.
No one can promote protectionism ( unless every country is based on it ie no cross border trade) and survive without doing immense damage to their own economies.
Trump knows this. Indded, he built his businesses partly based on free trade. He would seek to get the biggest bang for his buck for his businesses.
He may talk a bit, maybe instigate some small scale protectionist laws here and there to keep a large part of his supporters happy, but mostly, he will not engage in a protectionist agenda.
Nothing to worry about at all in my view.

 

And what makes you think you know Trump that well? Weren't you only recently of the opinion that he definitely wouldn't get elected?

Even following your current reasoning, AFAIK Trump has business mainly in USA with some in Canada and Scotland so any protectionist measures towards countries like China and Mexico would have no ill effects on his real estate empire in USA.
A list of everything Donald Trump runs that has his name on it

In fact, his intended infrastructure plans have indirectly caused expectations of rate rises and inflation in USA which have helped massive capital flows back to USA from all over the world. Guess whose business in USA will benefit?

OP : Even if Trump eventually implements only 10-15% of his original intended trade tariffs, China will not have enough domestic demand to keep things going.

Actually Trump is not the leader in protectionist thinking. In fact, EU has already started imposing tariffs on imports of chinese steel.
EU imposes anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese steel to protect manufacturers
[The duties range between 43 and 81 per cent, and apply to seamless pipes and tubes of iron and steel, which are used in power plants, construction and the oil-and-gas industry]

Apparently Germans are planning to expel some migrants as well from what Merkel has just announced.