Property prices beginning to drop

+1
very well said

 

I thought the upswing in prices was very easy to predict and I did so many times on this forum. In fact, back on 1 April 2020 I stated that property prices in Sydney would double between 2019 - 2026.

All of that said, Sackie's advise is definitely the best on this thread. Predictions can be useful, but they can also paralyse people into doing nothing. Successful investors aren't those that predicted the future correctly (particularly in real estate) - they are people who invested and risked being wrong.

They key is investing in a way that, even if you are wrong, you still make money. For those familiar with Dollar Milkshake Theory, this is his key: he believes X will happen, but will make money even if he is wrong.

Good call Sackie.

 

@John_BridgeToBricks
I recall you took a lot of crap from 'no it alls' when you were of the opinion that price growth was to come. Since then I can conservativly say my portfolio has grown at least 10% , very likely more.

All crickets now from those who attacked you mate.

 

Hey John
Give me the winning lotto numbers

Did you also predict AUD rising??? I think you did

I am seeing same in Perth, however its FHB market, driven by government grants, low interest rate environment. Iron ore prices soaring has also helped

I think covid has created a shortage of stock world wide, its quite extraordinary

 

I also enjoy reading @John_BridgeToBricks 's very well argued posts -especially around his detailed explanations around the macro environment, inflation and the resultant impacts on prop values. Even when vast majority of bulls turned bear (including myself) on the near-prospects of prop early last year -- and the bears went in overdrive predicting sky falling over , he articulated some real great and logical posts around the massive role of gov in unleashing liquidity, interest rates, bonds/ yields and equities and their combined impact on prop values in Aus and has done so with great demeanour- and without the need to shout or ridicule any poster!

At one stage in the thick of gloom last may, I considered selling some of my holdings inc large development blocks, but glad I didn't and it has paid off handsomely as the 34 new builds I am on the verge of completing in Melb with the fast-improving market has had a significant compounding effect on my bal sheet.

I reckon he is one of the best we have on this forum!

 

Yes seems that way, shortages can be a leading indicator when combined with others.

 

I suspect it could be world wide
Certainly the case in USA too

 

Agree, fear can make people hold for longer, change their preferences and current times make people reflect differently about life in general.

 

The issue is on this forum members are not all investors.
Some will go to open homes for fun its like and addiction for some its chore. here is my list of the memebers.

1. Some dont believe in property investment and think it s a ponzie scheme
2. Some have socialist believes that property is a utility therefore should be free
3. Some have have missed the boat or are not investing believing the best is behind them and property can not go up and in the further.
4. Some property will crash for reason x,,y,z I will set on the sidelines and try to build and audience around be that beleive my point of view.
5. Some have a PPOR and are on here to see if they made the right decision in buying
6. Some have 1 Investment property and are on here not sure why they purchased it or what to do with it or should sell it keep it,parents gave this advise and so on.
7. Some are commercial members that are attracting business and provide great advice to show their aptitude to attract new clients
8. Some are seasoned investors that use property as a vehicle to give themselves financial freedom and continue to grow
9. Some are at the end of their property journey and are selling down
10. Some have financial education,life experience ,tertiary education and some do not but have many opinions and predictions.
11. Some like to argue so are here to argue.
12. Some are here to learn and due to not ahving people around them who are successful are here to find successful people and are waiting to learn from them
13. everything in between

Their are so many people here

 

@kierank is here for the ladies.

 

You missed one:

14. @Sackie - he deserves his own separate, individual category ​

 

One thing I have learnt..... you need thick skin to play on forums. The tough will survive

 

@MTR
Seems to be the case. I still can't understand why some people want to eat up other people or don't seem happy when others do well or start to attack them just for the hell of it. I come from a culture where people are generally very close to each other always wanting to help each other succeed and push forward. Anyway I guess each to their own. For me, where I draw the line is when there is too much negativity. I rather not be around for it. I'm a firm believer that too much negativity definitely impacts your mindset which then can affect your actions.

 

Fair enough

But on the flip side, do we want an echo chamber. Dont we want to be challenged, its ok if we are wrong. I am surprised at what markets are doing today, but never had covid before.
I am taking advantage of this, hope it lasts for a couple of years? Who knows

If its not constructive and fanatical then I think its time to use the ignore button. I wont entertain trolls

 

Hi Sackie. I'm not in the business of predicting but I will admit that at the start of the Pandemic I had concerns how we as a country would handle it. Turns out we handled it a lot better than many predicted in a cases and lives lost scenario. My original question was just asking if anybody had started to see any decreasing property values and at that time I was seeing a few minor drops around 5% in my area, hence why I asked.
I did not start the ball rolling that the sky would cave in and house prices would plummet. In fact many times I stated not really seeing any dramatic drops.
I hope there were many who had the courage to buy at the start of the Pandemic but I certainly held out, and missed one good opportunity to buy something I really liked. The actual buyer got it 40k under original listing price back in May I think it was. Still kicking myself.

 

I agree with you. I do think there is a difference between a robust debate and downright fear mongering. At the end of the day though, how much of this can we really ' challenge' of others? Who knows what's to come? All we can do is make educated guesses and invest within our risk tolerances. So when some people aggressively want to challenge others...well...it's kinda pointless. Unless they have a crystal ball.

 

Let's not jinx it. I got one more to sell!

But the CF is pretty good I'm actually considering just keeping it in my portfolio.

 

I have decided to keep my development, all 3

its just a no brainer, low interest rate environment, there is talk of at least another 3 years of low IR??? Here’s hoping

Your daughter is too cute.... this is prob my favourite avatar

 

Thanks she's really the joy in my life. We're like besties! Haha. I'm gonna give her every leg up in life that I am able to give. She'll be my only child so she'll inherit the lot, minus some for charity. That doesn't mean I'll raise her to be entitled or lazy. Quite the opposite.