Property prices beginning to drop

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Property Baron, 18th Jun, 2020.

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  1. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    I'm a little nervous. I'm looking to buy in Burwood / Strathfield / Croydon (NSW) and I had budgeted for about early 2020 prices. They went down for a few months in April-June...now they're roaring back again. Everything is selling with strong numbers. God dammit. I'm going to have to pull 100k out of my ass at this point to keep up.

    Who knows maybe they'll drop again at the end of the year or next year but I'm a little worried they'll just keep creeping up.
     
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  2. DueDiligence

    DueDiligence Well-Known Member

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    I reckon it’s flat into mid 2021 then to the moon after that.

    Theres a number of factors that will influence this but I think it’s quite probable.
     
  3. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    Hopefully. Another 9 months of reprieve is all I need. Barely anything decent coming out on the market right now so I’m going to need some time to wait for the right one to hit.
     
  4. Maximus

    Maximus Well-Known Member

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    You kind of hit the nail on the head, not much coming up and some people for some reason are desperate to buy.
    If more houses get listed i think it should keep prices down for a while yet.
    Im just waiting until the new year and hoping a rundown house in my budget and desired area pops up.
     
  5. Someguy

    Someguy Well-Known Member

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    Haven’t been watching those markets but I get the feeling that low interest rates and perception of low demand has people aiming to upgrade. Those that would have been looking at Lidcombe are now stretching the budget to Strathfield
     
  6. Graeme

    Graeme Well-Known Member

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  7. Andrewjh

    Andrewjh Well-Known Member

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    Pretty decent auction clearance rates today. Certainly doesn’t feel like the September crash.
    Today 72% Sydney. Last year 76%.
     
  8. DueDiligence

    DueDiligence Well-Known Member

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    People are panic buying houses. I wondering if the collective social stress has got people making decisions they otherwise wouldn’t
     
  9. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    I went to see an apartment on Saturday (Strathfield NSW) and there must have been at least 10-15 groups. What the hell...
     
  10. DueDiligence

    DueDiligence Well-Known Member

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    To reword Keating’s statement from circa 1990.

    “This is the recession we never had to have”...
     
  11. frankjeager

    frankjeager Well-Known Member

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    i remember watching his interview on switzer around march/april and he forecast pretty much what the banks are saying now. he has been pretty spot on with his forecasts over the last decade.
     
  12. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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  13. TAJ

    TAJ Well-Known Member

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    If in fact, Australia's population growth can be attributed to around 60% migrant intake over the last decade, and the tap remains turned off, then yes I can see this having a negative affect on the need for new builds.
    It remains to be seen whether Australia will be seen as a desirable location when the dust settles after Covid.
     
  14. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    My prediction is when the dust settles, not a single thing about the world changes except there will be a few more people that are OCD about germs. At airports we'll have people measuring our temps - that's the only long lasting effect that I can see from SARS. SARS didn't hit the world this hard, but man did it hit Hong Kong hard, and the only thing that remained there now are the temp guns. The only difference is these temp guns were only seen at Asian airports, I suppose we'll see them more widely used now.

    I don't even expect it to really change the nature of the way we work - teleconferencing technologies are still a poor substitute for working in person. When I go out to the shops (I'm presently living in Syd) there is no fear of social interaction, of being in close proximity to people. I rarely see social distancing actually being practiced.

    We hear it every time there's a crisis: "oh but it's different this time". Those magical worlds. I love to hear them - sing it to me! Every time there's a problem, I await like a kid at Christmas for someone to utter them.

    I genuinely believe nothing changes 5 years from now. Not a shred.

    (I'm sure a few minor things will linger, but this sweeping social upheaval some are predicting...yeah right)
     
    Last edited: 21st Sep, 2020
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  15. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    Those are my (personal) sentiments too.

    Re: temp checks though, I think they're useless. Anyone with a fever who's about to travel is going to pop at least a couple of Paracetamol or Ibuprofen tablets....not because they're afraid of being caught but because there's nothing worse than being on a plane with a fever.
     
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  16. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    I think they're useless too, I guess I'm just looking at the fallout of SARS in Hong Kong as my guide on that one.
     
  17. fols

    fols Well-Known Member

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    Well this view isn't going to help sell any newspapers is it? :cool:
     
  18. Melbourne_guy

    Melbourne_guy Well-Known Member

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    I suspect you are right - the question is 'when the dust settles'? With the exception of Victoria, people are currently happy to go about their business as they would 'normally' because the virus has been sufficiently suppressed or eliminated. Its hard to stimulate an economy if you are killing or incapacitating half the population.
     
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  19. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    Growth forecast over 2 yrs:
    • 12% in Melbourne
    • 14% in Syd
    • 20% in Brissy

    And interesting that Bill said that there will be less restrictions on credit compared to the last 3 yrs. How would this materialise - serviceability, DTI etc?
     
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  20. Robbo80

    Robbo80 Well-Known Member

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    Lack of quality homes compounded by the emotional desire to have a nicer home/office to spend half your working life in. Fomo is strong!
     

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