Property prices beginning to drop

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Property Baron, 18th Jun, 2020.

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  1. Ben20

    Ben20 Well-Known Member

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    At this point in time, everyone is just guessing. Only time will tell.
     
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  2. Ummm

    Ummm Well-Known Member

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    Stocks, gold etc are a lot easier for people to buy without leverage. Problem with real estate is that the average Joe needs a loan. To get the loan they need to show they have income to pay for it. Unemployment levels and divended cuts will not help this. In addition, even diversified retirees who are having both their dividend and rental income cut will need to start selling off assets so they can eat...
     
  3. Ummm

    Ummm Well-Known Member

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    Problem with this is now valuations will need to include this sale as part of the process to determine how much someone can borrow, doesn't help the house next door/suburb getting a good result unless it is a cash buyer.
     
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  4. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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  5. Jana

    Jana Well-Known Member

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    Should be 90% now??
     
  6. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Interesting how some suburbs behave.
    Liverpool area and Lurnea Which i would expect to drop in price and increase in vancancy is not behaving like expected.

    Campbelltown is reach record low vacancies in the 1%

    How is this possible?

    Campbelltown.jpg lurnea.jpg
     
  7. fl360

    fl360 Well-Known Member

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    I agree, there are definitely bargains popping up, but they will be snapped up quickly....

    Property, in the long term, will recover. (at least by inflation).

    as for Shares vs Property. Shares' fundamental are earnings and expected future earnings, and Property is the rental income. Rental income is taking a hit now.

    Shares definitely are more liquid, easier to allocate, (by thousands and not millions (Sydney)), and less transaction costs... BRK shares are bigger lots, but it is a special case.
     
  8. fl360

    fl360 Well-Known Member

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    they are all up for sale, or ready to be put up for sale ! [just kidding]

    seems like reporting inconsistencies here...
     
  9. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Not sure about Campbelltwon,
    Although looking at Lurnea only a fe properties for sale . 6 months ago going in the high 500s now going for high 600s and low 700s.

    Hardly any stock at all.

    So in this part of the Western Sydney im seeing low and dropping vacancy with less stock on market achieving higher prices.


    this is what is confusing.

    Her is only 18 houses in Lurnea
    https://www.realestate.com.au/buy/p...=false&activeSort=list-date&source=refinement
     
  10. fl360

    fl360 Well-Known Member

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    this part of western Sydney is very hard to generalise, you have run down ex-housing sheds to new build mansions. some sitting in the listings for months, and some sold quickly.

    in terms of rental, some are being diversified, or I say divided to rooms, and this kind of property will never appear in the official statistics.
     
  11. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Thank you.

    Im aware of this market as i have a few in the area.

    Lurnea specifically does not have a lot of ex housing stock on market at all its entry level and some Fibro but mostly private.

    The Change in the last 6 months is profound and defies logic hence my point.

    Although i agree with what your saying.
     
  12. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

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    Right now we are seeing drops.
    Right now not even the problem.
    Once loan deferrals and jobkeeper end we will see.
    Absolute false economy right now, government has thrown nearly 200:eek:billion in to help cover up the disaster, how long can they keep this up.
    I know businesses that are so much better now than before covid but that is down to the jobkeeper bungle:rolleyes:
    Once the stimulus ends wholly molly:eek:
     
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  13. KFC_8

    KFC_8 Active Member

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    Can you see the stimulus packages ending before the economy picks up again? Support may tail-off a little... But if the economy continue this downward trend I can see the government providing more stimulus.
     
  14. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

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    Depends how long this saga goes on for... I heard an "expert" today say that this virus will probably not go away. In this case how long will the current tax payers want to continue paying other businesses staff with there taxes(Jobkeeper) not forever I can tell you that much, maybe a year or 2 but i'd say that would be it.
    Call me negative or a bit harsh but hey it is what it is and tough calls will have to be made for the good of all eventually
     
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  15. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    upload_2020-8-7_9-43-32.jpeg
     
  16. Peter2013

    Peter2013 Well-Known Member

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  17. Peter2013

    Peter2013 Well-Known Member

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    Morgan Stanley data shows 15 percent of mortgagors are now on the dole!
     
  18. ttn

    ttn Well-Known Member

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    There's a big difference in JobKeeper or JobSeeker! ;)
     
  19. Peter2013

    Peter2013 Well-Known Member

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    Yes, 22 per cent is on Job Keeper! An extra 7 percent if you call that a big difference.

    Compared with 15 percent on Job Seeker.

    55 percent of mortgagors are now on some sort of government benefit.
     
  20. ttn

    ttn Well-Known Member

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    If their HL debts are low and manageable so what? Aust still sells lots of iron ores, coals ... etc :D