Property market to slump by 5%

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Gousey, 22nd Jun, 2017.

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  1. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    :oops: my bad.... the one time I look at a graph I get called out on it.

    Going to post on the hypocrite thread asap.

    Btw only thing I like to LIC are lollypops while searching REA. :p
     
    Sackie, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #21
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  2. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    Trust is so hard to earn and so easy to destroy.

    Now you know - I am watching you!!! :)

    So you should. While you are there, ask for forgiveness :) :).

    Stop it. I am being totally serious here.
     
    kierank, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #22
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  3. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    I am quite used to wronging sellers.. . Then i go to church to ask for forgivingness.....


    Forgive me father for I have rescind.
     
    Sackie, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #23
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  4. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    Your graph cannot be trusted. Canberra is spelled incorrectly. No cred.
     
    larrylarry, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #24
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  5. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Hey listen, be happy Canberra is even on the graph :p
     
    Sackie, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #25
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  6. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    Probably all those disgruntled Brisbane property owners pi...ed off at their Sydney based opponents who have made a motsa and wanting a bit of pay back.

    JT's from Townsville so he'd be even more frustrated :D

    cliff
     
    See Change, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #26
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  7. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    ... and here I was thinking synagogue, totally different property market :).

    Can you stop this!!!

    The wife is getting angry with me as I am on PC replying to your posts instead of doing my EOFY stuff like restructuring our SMSF, ensuring we paid the minimum 4% pension, finalising our property expenses, ...

    If I am not careful, she will divorce me - more bloody paperwork to process and less time available for PC :).

    Back to work (until my next post).
     
    kierank, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #27
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  8. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    Who's buying in Canbera anyway?
     
    kierank, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #28
  9. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    Credits cost & availability is getting tightened across the geography so why do you think it will not effect Bris/Perth/Adailade markets?
     
    TheSackedWiggle, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #29
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  10. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Don't you know us Jews are greedy... we want forgiveness from many sources :p :D

    OK, ok I gotta get back to some real work too. Off to Bondi Junction.. :p
     
    Sackie, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #30
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  11. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    An IP has to make its holding cost every year just to be on money. for recent entrants with high LVR loans, this holding cost is not insignificant given low rental yields.

    Property on a high LVR is a high leveraged bet, where gains from rise and loss from falls, both are amplified relative to your Invested capital.
     
    TheSackedWiggle, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #31
  12. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

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    Guess who makes their money selling the reports. The gloomier the outlook the more they will sell.

    Residential Property Prospects 2017 – 2020 | BIS Oxford Economics

    bis.PNG
     
    wombat777, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #32
  13. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Investor lending has to go down at least 10% on average for most of the banks. That's a steep deleveraging over next 3 months. So I am calling at least a 5-10% correction in prices, especially in investor heavy markets like Syd/Melb. Perth and Darwin will still go down but not because of banking changes but becoz of poor economy.
     
    Kangabanga, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #33
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  14. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Using the lower end 30% growth in some of the Brissie subrubs is only 6-7% growth per annum compounded.

    For the one I bought in Strathpine...I bought it for 300k.....it is now already 370k plus....another 30% would bring it to about 480k....by 2020...nothing stellar bit solid

    This how I made my mullah..is is taking the consistent growth..
     
    sash, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #34
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  15. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yes it will to a certain extent...but these markets with the exception of Brisbane have less investors..and more FHB.....also the amounts borrowed are much less...so that comes into play also.
     
    sash, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #35
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  16. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    ... and you will need every bit of it, the way you have been behaving later :p.
     
    kierank, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #36
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  17. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    ... and we should get/beat that.

    Geez, my parents have gotten near 7% year-on-year growth for the last 45 years for their PPOR and it is in Toowoomba (of all places).
     
    kierank, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #37
  18. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    North Queensland Cowboys property deals in the spotlight

    Anyone knows how those properties fare?
     
    larrylarry, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #38
  19. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    That's what I am hoping...that will take my portfolio to the next level.....it is just like running a P&L. :)

    1. Growth on gross assets is like the increase in increase in share price and underlying company assets. Also return on assets is the yield....
    2. Growth in gross rent is like growth in income
    3. Growth in net rent is like growth in net income/dividends/retained earnings
     
    sash, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #39
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  20. Gousey

    Gousey Active Member

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    I see that the "slight edge" principle is working for you here.
    This is ultimately what I am aiming for - progressive growth over a long period of time.

    Although a number of investors have made some serious mullah due to substantial portfolio growth in quite a short time, I'll be happy with short term growth compounding over many years.
     
    Gousey, 22nd Jun, 2017
    #40
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