Property market slowdown?

What area in Melbourne is a good buy for good house with large block of land which can give solid CG over the long term? Does any one know about Mickleham?

 

south east middle ring, Croydon has gone nuts but there are a few lazy agents in the area....hint hint......find one of these major agents and you may pick up a good deal.

Finding good deals is always about networking

 

Yes building one there...what do you want to know.....

 

I'd read that half the reef resorts were now closed, but apparently so are now the Whitsunday ones? Wow

One of the two couran cove resorts is to become a retirement village???

 

Signs of slow down?

http://www.apimagazine.com.au/2016/08/housing-approvals-top-end/

Rental rates plummet in capital cities

 

If new homes are built, that tends to decrease price growth in any location. It helps employ a few people though, but once they are built, if there's little more building in the pipeline then those builders would have to seek alternative work. Maybe in that location but if they are mobile, it could be elsewhere where the jobs are. Additionally, if NT will have a lot of new homes built as per your article and their economy is currently stuffed, it will bring prices down further as it will decrease demand on existing homes.

I note that in your linked first article that Sydney's approvals are going backwards, so in the short term, that will help keep Sydney dwelling prices high if all other factors remain equal. While some locations (rural, regional and some big cities) in Australia have excess housing to demand, overall Sydney doesn't suffer the same problem. There are plenty of adult kids sharing homes with parents and plenty of people sharing homes that could be living in individual dwellings. Plus overseas migrants come in to live for a better life, wether it be for jobs or education. (Education can lead to residency in Aus)....

There is localised possible oversupply of apartments in Sydney which in some areas will keep a lid on some prices and ability to attract tenants, but if you compare it to the situation in some other states, prices arent being forced to come down in any large way. Plenty of people want to upgrade (from a unit to something bigger) or move to more convenient or desirable locations, but supply of homes that ticks all the boxes is low thus prices are high (in my old suburb... I believe there's still only 2 homes on the market... in a normal market there would be around 5). The hard thing with Sydney is that it is expensive - even units often costs more than freestanding homes elsewhere - its not common to see 2 bedroom apartment in the inner or middle ring areas for under 550k.

While the Chinese aren't buying up left right and centre, there's still plenty of locals looking to buy, even though entry prices are high.

Re: rental rates... once again that comes down to supply and demand. To keep rental rates high in an environment when new housing is being built you need people coming in and forming new households to occupy the built housing. No demand --> fall in rental rates.

Demand is driven mainly by migration, employment. No jobs.... consider it a tough ask to get non retirees to move in. While some jobs can be done remotely, they are still uncommon and most employers require staff to have some physical presence in their work place. Also while mining may still be strong in some regional areas, if the management decide that their workers can live in a camp, then that doesn't really help local landlords.

 

@Gockie, Lots of nuggets in there... I am re-reading them again and again to digest it

 

Thanks. I know other people can explain things better than I do... Just think. Higher supply, prices tend to decrease/not increase so much and buyers can be choosy when they buy. But some areas have a lack of housing, therefore there are lots of offers to buy a particular property. Highest offer wins. Prices push upwards as people miss out. B and C grade properties sell without too much difficulty as buyers struggle to secure their ideal purchase, they get fed up and discouraged and settle for second best.

When the market turns from hot to cool, you'll have fewer buyers, more sellers then only the A grade properties sell, but not for crazy over the top prices. Others languish on the market as they struggle to attract buyers. To get a buyer the prices have to decrease.

When you add capacity, (new stock on market), the market dilutes, choice is given back to the buyers, prices go down. Only when the number of buyers exceeds the number of sellers is when upwards price pressure (and capital growth) will come back.

There are homes that can be sold in any market, these are the ones that are widely desirable to the majority of the population. Aspects include being in a quiet street, walk to rail, flat/high side land, wide frontage, green and low crime neighbourhood, good schools in area or have some unique features... eg. water views. These features will never go out of fashion. (Unless its sea wall collapses or its flood affected etc). These ones... my thought is... never sell unless you really have to or if you get some crazy over the top offer that's too good to pass up. Demand for properties with these attributes will always be high. High demand --> strong prices.
Pull out equity... keep buying.

I would only look to sell the dogs (properties with no or little capital growth potential in the near future). And you guessed it... this comes back to supply and demand. Try to sell these while the local market is strong. It's sometimes worth crystallising your profit or stopping your loss...
If you can see a better investment out there, its great to be in a financial position where you can just go ahead and buy, with confidence you can get your funding. Sometimes you have to sell in order to move forward.

Sorry this became an essay....

 

and what an essay it is thanks once again

 

@Gockie you are a legend!

 

The NT is cactus. It's being propped up buy the huuuuuuge gas plant being built and very generous incentives to build new.

With the current government grants, It's currently cheaper to build a new house than buy an old one, hence the inflated numbers.

However the population is decreasing with the end of the mining boom and once that gas plant finishes, the economy and popukatiob will fall of a cliff.

There will also be even more houses free because everyone added to the supply by building new.....

Youre looking at an almost Gladstone-like disaster....

Maybe worth looking elsewhere?

 

More news-

Oversupply in Melbourne?

 

Stock levels are definitely low across Sydney. All data sources point to the trend.

Rental demand may be lower in Schofields as its not an established suburb yet and hence tenants have no incentive to go that far. Rental demand in The Ponds and Kellyville is very high as they are brand new suburbs with all amenities and a lot of people working in Norwest want to live there.

 

Schofields is next to The Ponds and whilst there are a lot of supply, it is actually taking some of the The Ponds renters as it is cheaper.

There are still a lot of land at Kellyville being developed right now so I would say all 3 suburbs would have lots of stocks around over next few years.

 

Tenants are a lot more fussier than owners. Nobody would want to live in a half built suburb with no parks, no footpaths, internet issues, safety concerns for $100 cheaper rent. At this stage, the difference between The Ponds and Schofields is staggering in terms of available infrastructure. Those who are buying in Schofields are willing to sacrifice because they know both suburbs will look similar in 5 years time but tenants think differently.

This argument never works. I have seen 4000 new dwellings built and sold in just one suburb (Rhodes) in last 6 years and that didn't break the market.

 

Last month I got agent flyers stating everything is now all rosy because negative gearing is off the table with Libs fully in

No Cookies | The Courier Mail

This week its flyers with the above news as a reason to sell soon

oh i'm confused

 

Cut out the white noise and make a decision for yourself is always, or nearly always the best decision.

 

Found a lot of good discussions (and upcoming pain) here - Property Market Economics

 

yes but look at who is starting the threads and driving the noise....

also I think I read somewhere that this site now has 6000 members, surely that's a misprint? a few weeks browsing on here and you would think that only 20 people actually post here.....

 

it's not a lot different to the somersoft days. It has a very circa GFC aroma to it again now