I have read posts from others using historical property market returns as a guide to potential long terms returns to property investing. I've been thinking about this myself as a buy and hold investor and I am more convinced that a number of headwinds (and few tailwinds) will make the next 15yrs rather disappointing vs the previous 15 years. Would like to hear others thoughts. Headwinds: 1. Secular downtrend in interest rates in last 15 years has benefited housing incredibly. With cash rates at generation lows, there may be a couple more cuts coming but otherwise less further upside than previous 15 years. 2. Negative gearing rules, PPOR exemption and CGT discount have all made investing in housing more attractive. The call to remove these seem to be getting stronger. With fiscal situation getting worse, seems only a matter of time before these are tweaked. Could have quite strong ramifications. 3. Housing is very expensive in Australia relative to income based on all standard metrics 4. Ageing population means more and more people will sell investment properties to fund retirement with less working population to buy them. 5. Australia's resource boom is over with no strong income growth to support continually paying for large mortgages. Tailwinds: 1. Currency falls further (but that is because economy is bad) and foreigners go nuts on property for years. 2. Population growth continues to grow (although slowing now).