Property Market Future Recovery Signal Generated

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by kitdoctor, 12th Jan, 2019.

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  1. kitdoctor

    kitdoctor Well-Known Member

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    The S&P /ASX 200 A-REIT (Australian Real Estate Investment Trust) Index has generated a recovery signal for commercial/industrial/retail property. The index completed a price correction that started in July 2016 in November 2018 and will now rise for some time to complete its cycle from its GFC low in March 2009.

    This has an implication for Australian residential property. When the S&P /ASX 200 A-REIT completed its correction in August 2011 Australian residential property (as measured by the CoreLogic All Dwellings Five Capital City Index) continued to fall until May 2012, a lag of nine months. In a similar fashion the ABS Residential Property Price Index - Weighted Average of Eight Capital Cities continued to fall unit the December 2011 quarter, a lag of only a few months. A similar situation should now play out. That is, dwelling prices will continue to fall while the A-REIT rises but dwelling prices will bottom and then start rising. When the recovery start and what it will look like are the interesting questions. upload_2019-1-12_16-26-2.png

    A-REIT January 2019.png
     
  2. Triton

    Triton Well-Known Member

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    I remember few months ago there were predictions of housing market turning around based on Google search data, apparently it had been very accurate previously, we all know how that turned out.
    House prices? Let me google that for you
     
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  3. Silverson

    Silverson Well-Known Member

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    I’m sorry, until regulators, banks, government etc all do something about credit (easier to get money) I just can’t see housing recovering.

    For all those supply and demand supporters out there I always say, the demand for housings there, but the supply of credit is not.
     
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