Property Cycle Clock - Where are we right now?

thread continued from somersoft...

 

Does anyone follow herron todd white's property clock? Is it accurate?

 

I download and read it every month, provides a baseline of information to use followed up by one's own research. I think there are others that use it as well but i'm not sure who they are.

 

I like to read it each month, provides a good general summary of areas I'm interested in. I would be not relying on it too heavily for DD

 

Heron Todd White, Core Logic & SQM are the market analysis resources I use.

 

Brisbane is hard to pick at the moment. Lots of top performing agents are screaming that their Jan - June Figures are way down on last year. Mine are way up but we are growing rapidly

 

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/...brisbane-on-the-june-2015-property-clock.html

 

Here is a blown up version of the HTW June Property Clock.
Melbourne is a market I don't really understand. Some say it's gone up and almost/peaked just like Sydney. Some say there is still buying opportunity.
HTW put Melbourne and Brisbane in the same cycle - Rising Market. Thoughts??

 

Melbourne is a very big market and from my observation I would say that the inner ring & East has moved with growth now filtering out to the 15-20km ring from CBD..

Other Melbournians thoughts?

 

That's an interesting comment RPI. And my reading of page 32 of HTW's Month in Review June Report suggests something similar.....ie after a bright start to the year there's been a little lull in some key Brisbane markets. To me that makes it less than a lay down misere that Brisbane (as a whole) will zoom from the tide of investment dollars coming from the south this year. It may be that some areas of Brisbane may fare better than others. Be interesting to hear the honest feedback from others at the Brisbane RE coalface.
Also interesting that the same HTW article used the words 'giant red flag' in relation to Brisbane Inner City Units re Supply coming on versus Demand. Only one group's point of view I guess but for me these guys have more street cred than your standard ABC / Fairfax commentators that grab the headlines more regularly.

 

I know outer northern suburbs have moved a bit. I brought in thomastown sep 14 for 446. Could easily sell for 480. I dont know if theres more growth left in the market or if its peaked already would be interested to hear others opinions aswell.

 

We are at the top now for Sydney market:

 

Where is Alica Springs?...

 

Not where Alica Key lives!

 

@norwoodman: I think it is Alice Springs in the previous month graph, it was on the Declining market state, but this month it is now on the Start of Recovery state.

How can that happens ?

 

So according to those latest 2 charts, Adelaide has gone backwards?

First chart in June, starting recovery, 2nd chart in July, bottom of the market?