Property could fall 30%- LOL

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Ummm, 14th May, 2020.

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What's your prediction

  1. The only way is up

    21 vote(s)
    12.7%
  2. 12month plateau then boom

    81 vote(s)
    48.8%
  3. 24 month slow grind up then mega boom

    56 vote(s)
    33.7%
  4. 6 week doldrums and then Super mega boom

    8 vote(s)
    4.8%
  1. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    Are people not noticing the rapid speed in which lockdowns are now being lifted? I think to assume international border closures until a vaccine is found is going to be fairly off the mark.

    International borders IMO will open by as early as a few months to SOME countries. Obviously NZ will be top of that list but any who have had the same success will be allowed into the country.

    After that I think they will allow entry and require self funded quarantine for most other counties with the exception of those deemed to risky.

    Vaccine aside we are 50 times ahead of where we were when the pandemic started. Doctors/Hospitals more prepared, equipment, tests, tracking ability and Ofcourse general population awareness. It is going to be significantly easier to shutdown certain communities with much less disruption if needed.

    Let’s be very clear. Two things are never going to happen.
    1 - Herd Immunity. This is an absolute pipe dream and they have enough evidence now to show this isn’t going to work. The one country who has attempted this is failing.
    2 - A vaccine anytime soon but my guess is ever. Global systems will be in place to return to “normal” before this will happen.
     
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  2. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    You could also argue how many lives have and will be saved during this lockdown period.
    And how many lives will now be saved from now on with more people working from home, social distancing, generally being more careful.

    I think you will find long term more lives will be saved than lost. That’s my guess. We are going to have a hell of a lot more healthy population if we are no longer packed into PT and offices like sardines. And mental health is going to be a hell of a lot better when we have work life balance for all.
     
  3. hieund85

    hieund85 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah. Imagine we still need to go to CBD office by PT trains, packed like sardines 2-3 hours per day while reading the news about how many new cases and new death, worrying about catching the virus, etc. I guess it would be even worse for mental health than lock down.
     
  4. Melbourne_guy

    Melbourne_guy Well-Known Member

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    Having read over the last couple of days of what is happening currently in Europe, it would be wrong to beat-up Australian politicians for showing caution. Australia is doing nothing differently from the majority of European countries are doing right now. No crowds at sporting or cultural events, cafes are opening but have restricted numbers and only in small groups, likewise gyms and pools, etc. Whilst there will be easing, travel restrictions in many places are still in place - just allowed to venture a little further than the end of the road.

    Sweden is the exception but they are likely to find themselves out of the 'Scandinavian bubble' when discussions on travel between the Scandinavian countries progress. Russia, like the USA, are screwed because they ignored initial advice - who wants to accept their citizens? There are different speeds of the phasing in of 'normality' dependant upon the country. Some countries hope to receiving tourists sometime in July but how realistic is it for a tourist to arrive when buying a sit-down coffee or lunch may not even be possible without long queues? Is that a holiday?
     
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  5. Jezzah

    Jezzah Well-Known Member

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    Can I add to your list of things that are never going to happen? How about...

    3. Applying an effective quarantine on international travellers

    How many returning Australian's skipped their quarantine, even when we had police directly involved in managing it? If we get to the point were there is self-funded quarantine, on a scale that is (ideally) larger than the current travel arrangements, there is no way it's going to be policed effectively. So yeah, pay your 2 week hotel tax, maybe stay in for a day or three for optics and then slowly go out on day/night trips. After all you paid a mint for it.

    This also ignores the fact that in northern China they are now running 28 day quarantines due to a number of incidents of people becoming infectious post 14 day isolation.
     
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  6. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    No disputing there won’t be challenges and like everything rules will be broken.

    How about this though.
    If your an overseas resident and get caught your issued a massive fine and deported for life.

    For Aussie residents how about an enormous fine and a little jail time... Excessive I know and with over crowding in prisons probably not the best idea. But serious punishments and not $1500 fines will pull 95% of heads in.

    And when that time comes we will be way better positioned to monitor peoples movements. The start of this pandemic was an absolute mess. No one knew what was going on and decisions were being made on a whim. The government is going to be a hell of a lot more prepared when they are ready to open borders.
     
  7. Someguy

    Someguy Well-Known Member

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    For residents I would think a fine and then blocked for any future travel would be appropriate, jail as a last resort. The way I see it is if a person shows they can’t be trusted to isolate yourself for 2 weeks then allowing them any future travel would present too great a risk.
     
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  8. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    Yep that’s also a very good idea.
    I mean there are countless ways to skin a cat.

    But I’m fairly certain if you want to open borders and your concern is people breaking self quarantine then putting a very severe penalty in place will prevent all but the very simplest from breaking the rules.
     
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  9. Jezzah

    Jezzah Well-Known Member

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    True put in harsh rules, and expect you will have to use them in the early days to show you are serious. The populace will naturally test the boundaries and an example will have to be made for them to be taken seriously, unfortunately. Just look at how Bondi had to be called out when social distancing was first brought in.
     
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  10. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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  11. Jezzah

    Jezzah Well-Known Member

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    hmm international travel to all countries by October.... that looks wishful to me.

    good find by the way.

    EDIT: wait no that is other covid safe countries. All countries is at least next year, maybe later
     
    Last edited: 27th May, 2020
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  12. Graeme

    Graeme Well-Known Member

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    The article mentions full international travel restarting on December 15th. I wouldn't be surprised if that slips should there be a second wave in the Northern Hemisphere winter.
     
  13. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

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    So how does that even work? I fly to Austria.. Then I duck out on a train or hire car to Germany or Czech, or any of the surrounding countries (as I have done at times in the past) with no border check other than cursory. Then I travel back to Austria and head back home. Protection seems all a bit of show, rather than any actual reality.
     
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  14. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    There has already been second waves in HK, China, Germany, easy.... isolate and contain

    No country will completely shut down again, this would be economic suicide.
     
  15. Jezzah

    Jezzah Well-Known Member

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    surely they will if their ICU's are overrun. The question is probably how likely that would be though.

    also it might not be government imposed at that point but the people would willingly isolate themselves
     
  16. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    It happened, they dealt with it and moved on
     
  17. Jezzah

    Jezzah Well-Known Member

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    what you are calling a second wave is I think not what most public health officials consider to be what a second wave is.
     
  18. Graeme

    Graeme Well-Known Member

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    The Imperial College modelling that informed the UK's approach suggested that countries would go in and out of lockdown depending on how prevalent the pandemic gets. So if you had a spike in cases, you'd do the isolation thing again.

    The risk at this stage is the population gets tired of lockdown, and let's itself out of lockdown early. That's probably not a big deal in Australia, but in the UK or NY it could get nasty.
     
  19. Vine Street

    Vine Street Active Member

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    This is the best thing about Australia's situation

    Keep the border closed, keep numbers down at the moment - watch and learn from other countries successes and failures
     
  20. Buynow

    Buynow Well-Known Member

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    Australia has a good chance of eliminating the virus given the number of new cases. If we eliminate it, the borders will stay closed (except perhaps to NZ and other countries that have eliminated it).