Property could fall 30%- LOL

Maybe I should add a /sarc afterwards in future to avoid confusion

 

Haha yeah, I usually consider myself to be reasonably adept at detecting internet sarcasm, so I was pretty sure, but you never know. I hope you got the response you were after

 

He happens to be the CEO of the country's largest bank. Why would he talk down the property market he would be more interested of protecting? ROFL.

 

Exactly.

 

something called LMI at play? the jobless rate is totally underplayed due to Govt intervention.

 

LMI won't help the loan assessor if he has many default loans.

 

Anyone who uses the term “boom” referring to the property market I hope is referring to like a bomb hitting it, not boom as in a rocket upwards.

Even when you factor in record cheap credit and all time servicing capacity the offsets of the economy pain, job loss, long term unemployment, business cutting for years to come, change in working conditions.etc the only way is down (I’m at 15-20%) and from there a very longggggggg plateau period.

 

Australia wide - nup, 30% across the board fall not going to happen.

Inner CBD apartments in Sydney, yep, might well get 30% fall in prices by the end of 2020- IF international flights remain closed.

Vacancy rates in Syd CBD just hit a whopping 13.8% owch. Lots more pain to come IF international students can't come back, IF overseas tourists can't come in. IF skilled migrants can't come in (you get my point).



Mel CBD stats

 

Perth employment was also absolute Rubbish.
Not just population growth.

No work , No future prospects people leave.


Its the lack of prospects and good paying employment that is Perths problem,

Too expensive as a tourist destination for Australians.

The spiral starts.

Lovely place on of my favorites i was their vising clients in Jan.

 

To add most people in Sydney dont live in the CBD postcode 2000.
In Sydney its a large portion Commercial.
yes RESI as well.

In so its not really a good postcode to use . It wouldnt take much to shift %s.

These are the Suburbs that represent postcode 2000 from what i can see.
Sydney, Barangaroo, The Rocks, Haymarket, Millers Point, Dawes Point

 

Funny comparing Matt Comyn to Steve Keen.

 

13,895 jobs on Seek in Sydney.
5,235 jobs on Seek in Perth.

Sydney has 2.5x the population as Perth so if you adjust for population levels they are both fairly similar in terms of jobs available per person. As for wages in November 2019, Full-Time Adult Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings were highest for ACT and Western Australia at $1,829.80 and $1,777.80 respectively.

 

Why did every one leave?

 

Mining went from boom to bust and workers lost their jobs.

 

Why the housing bears are wrong

I'm not sure I'm as optimistic, but I do agree/hope what we're experiencing won't last.

 

interesting. Christopher Joye has been the most consistent forecaster over the last decade from what i can tell.

 

Thanks for sharing. Unfortunate timing for Chris Joye to state this when the Corelogic data showed a -.33 drop today:
The data is supporting our contrarian case. In contrast to the bears’ gloomy expectations, national house prices appreciated in February, March and April. And in May they have been flatlining.
In fact, they have been a picture of stability since mid-April. This is true in Sydney and Brisbane, with only modest softening evident in Melbourne. Auction clearance rates also appear to be recovering as we exit containment.

I think the perma-bears are also wrong in overestimating price drops and oftentimes devoid of facts, but it surprises me that this journalist has published this article proclaiming to be more rational than others when he hasn't even touched on core fundamentals like unemployment??

 

Have heard some of his podcasts.

Basically his view on unemployment is that many of the retrenched are part of the casual workforce apart from those in the obviously hit sectors like entertainment and travel. And in turn, a lot of those are on Jobkeeper/life support. His view is that a high percentage of these folks are renters and not homebuyers...thus less impact on house prices.

I don't think he would have held the same opinion during the GFC when most of the newly unemployed were the owner occupier set/highly paid types.

 

True. But in 2008/2009 I think most people found new jobs. I did after getting a very nice redundancy payout.

 

There's so many variables to consider in this climate. I'm no expert but there's some logic in this optimistic article as academic Cameran Murray posits it may be that this climate might produce price rises in 12-15 months.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/15/australian-households-face-grim-financial-outlook-as-coronavirus-unemployment-rises

Pete Wargent says that high unemployment isn't necessarily correlated to house prices. In some regional towns, it's cheaper (sometimes 50%) to buy than to rent especially when interest rates are extremely low and prices plateau. Value is determined by supply and demand. If people want to live in an area and there is low supply (ie people won't sell if they don't get the price they expect and can keep it without financial distress) with a higher demand then prices go up for a defined type of property. If supply is high and demand low then the reverse happens. Unemployment figures indicate that it's younger people and casuals who are hardest hit - many of these peeps aren't likely to be property owners. To borrow you need reliable semi-permanent or permanent jobs such as government sector (health, education, police etc), highly skilled, mature and likely better financial security. Canberra property prices won't be hit with a 30% decrease due to COVID-19.