Property could fall 30%- LOL

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Ummm, 14th May, 2020.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
?

What's your prediction

  1. The only way is up

    13 vote(s)
    8.7%
  2. 12month plateau then boom

    74 vote(s)
    49.7%
  3. 24 month slow grind up then mega boom

    55 vote(s)
    36.9%
  4. 6 week doldrums and then Super mega boom

    7 vote(s)
    4.7%
  1. Ummm

    Ummm Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Feb, 2018
    Posts:
    97
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    Who is this Matt Comyn guy, probably heard this as a hot tip at the pub, doesn't show any decent data to back up his claim ....sounds like another Steve Keen doomsayer...he will probably sell his house and regret it after property enters another boom, prices will easily rise from here, the economy has never looked so good!

    Aussie states hardest hit in property drop
     
  2. robbie_p

    robbie_p Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    674
    Location:
    Brisbane
    At the same time, theres no data to back up that his claim is not going to come true..

    "prices will easily rise from here, the economy has never looked so good!".. where you getting your data to back this?
     
    Joynz likes this.
  3. Joseph

    Joseph Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    25th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    1,377
    Location:
    AU
    Nothing more than a guess, but: Modest falls of 5-10% for the national median (from peak). Sideways/lower for Melbourne, Sydney & Hobart until the international borders are opened / population ponzi is turned back on (or if construction falls for a long enough time to impact the supply / demand equilibrium). Other capitals may see slow-modest growth.
     
    Archaon likes this.
  4. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    18,998
    Location:
    My World
    Who knows? It wont be across the board, some areas will be far more vulnerable, ie outer burbs ??

    How hard areas are hit will also be totally dependent on our economy and jobs.

    I am concerned about our relationship with China atm, I think its worth 80 billion in exports.
     
    AlphabetSoup likes this.
  5. robbie_p

    robbie_p Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    674
    Location:
    Brisbane
    I would cast my vote, but the choices seem very bullish, there are no options representing a slow decline, followed by a slow plateau, followed by a slow grind up?
     
    Empire, JL1, Silverson and 12 others like this.
  6. lynchy

    lynchy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    15th Sep, 2015
    Posts:
    191
    Location:
    Perth > Melbourne > Sydney > London > Sydney
    This

    You need to give all options otherwise your post simply comes across as a bull

     
    Jezzah and MTR like this.
  7. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    18,998
    Location:
    My World

    I am not in the bull camp:(
     
    RoadRunnerPerth and AlphabetSoup like this.
  8. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Sep, 2015
    Posts:
    679
    Location:
    A wannabe Mexican
    When the truth comes out...as sky news is starting to report NOW....the accuracy of the coronavirus "test" is as accurate as a coin flip....

    & people understand they have lost money and jobs and whatever else...

    property won't be dropping 30%.
     
    Codie likes this.
  9. Biggbird

    Biggbird Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    4th Feb, 2020
    Posts:
    129
    Location:
    Hobart
    Option 5: none of the above
     
  10. K974

    K974 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    29th Oct, 2017
    Posts:
    174
    Location:
    australia
    same none of the above apply
    Various falls, and a various speeds of recovery

    some of the rubbish stock will take a long long time to recover of which there is huge amounts in this country , a lot of stuff will be higher in 24 months than it is now
     
  11. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    10th Oct, 2005
    Posts:
    6,137
    Location:
    Brisbane
    If it does, I might be forced out of retirement :D.
     
    Angel and iloveqld like this.
  12. Fargo

    Fargo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,051
    Location:
    Vic
    Ummm, Why do people waste time twisting things out of context then knitpick. If you could comprehend the link you posted you would understand he is the CEO of CBA and that he did give same data that showed some price fall could happen. He is not a doomsayer he sounds nothing like Steve Keen but you do with your sensationalism. He merely made a prediction that in a worst case scenario a 30% possibility fall for some house's was a possibility and that some people need to be aware of it. Price falls of some degree are parts of Melbourne or Sydney are a real possibility ! And it is Prudent for People in his position with the data to call it as it is.
     
    sqe, Empire, korando1234 and 6 others like this.
  13. Biggbird

    Biggbird Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    4th Feb, 2020
    Posts:
    129
    Location:
    Hobart
    To be fair, I actually took this post as being a little tongue in cheek... Mostly because I thought it was a little too silly to be otherwise! We'll see.
     
    korando1234 and Primary341 like this.
  14. euro73

    euro73 Well-Known Member Business Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    4,904
    Location:
    The beautiful Hills District, Sydney Australia
    Is there any other way he might approach a round of golf? Impersonally, perhaps?
     
    Biggbird likes this.
  15. Fargo

    Fargo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,051
    Location:
    Vic
    He is actually more bullish than the reserve bank and other people, thinks unemployment will be under 10%, economic growth will be 6% and is taking a middle of the road position that HOUSE PRICES WILL FALL 11% over 3 years. But that no bank can be confident of what will happen Financial Review - Business, Finance and Investment News | afr.com
     
    frankjeager likes this.
  16. Peter_Tersteeg

    Peter_Tersteeg Finance broker and strategist Business Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    5,613
    Location:
    Melbourne, Nationwide
    I think the original source of this was some worst case modelling by APRA as part of their risk management.

    If the CBA believed this as an institutional level, they wouldn't still be approving 95% loans to maxed out first home buyers; which they definitely are still doing.
     
    Silverson, LSY, Empire and 9 others like this.
  17. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    17,397
    Location:
    Sydney or NSW or Australia
    Stephen Kenn has been predicting this scale of correction for years. Maybe he's right.
     
    Peter2013 likes this.
  18. MC1

    MC1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    281
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Maybe if he was ahead of the curve or a gladiator
     
  19. DAZ79

    DAZ79 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    29th May, 2018
    Posts:
    393
    Location:
    perth
    Perth is down 20% plus since peak. That’s your touchstone.

    Perth fell while Sydney and Melbourne rose.

    Why is that? Because the effect of collapsing population numbers was more powerful than cheap money.

    What’s happening in the rest of the country right now? Population numbers being decimated and lots of existing supply ( like Perth in 2014)

    So, unless there is a massive turnaround in population numbers, property prices will fall just like they did in Perth.

    Happy to hear the counter argument.
     
  20. Marg4000

    Marg4000 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    4,597
    Location:
    Qld
    None of the options given