Property could fall 30%- LOL

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Ummm, 14th May, 2020.

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What's your prediction

  1. The only way is up

    21 vote(s)
    12.7%
  2. 12month plateau then boom

    81 vote(s)
    48.8%
  3. 24 month slow grind up then mega boom

    56 vote(s)
    33.7%
  4. 6 week doldrums and then Super mega boom

    8 vote(s)
    4.8%
  1. Ummm

    Ummm Well-Known Member

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    Who is this Matt Comyn guy, probably heard this as a hot tip at the pub, doesn't show any decent data to back up his claim ....sounds like another Steve Keen doomsayer...he will probably sell his house and regret it after property enters another boom, prices will easily rise from here, the economy has never looked so good!

    Aussie states hardest hit in property drop
     
  2. robbie_p

    robbie_p Well-Known Member

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    At the same time, theres no data to back up that his claim is not going to come true..

    "prices will easily rise from here, the economy has never looked so good!".. where you getting your data to back this?
     
    Joynz likes this.
  3. Guest

    Guest Guest

    Nothing more than a guess, but: Modest falls of 5-10% for the national median (from peak). Sideways/lower for Melbourne, Sydney & Hobart until the international borders are opened / population ponzi is turned back on (or if construction falls for a long enough time to impact the supply / demand equilibrium). Other capitals may see slow-modest growth.
     
    Archaon likes this.
  4. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Who knows? It wont be across the board, some areas will be far more vulnerable, ie outer burbs ??

    How hard areas are hit will also be totally dependent on our economy and jobs.

    I am concerned about our relationship with China atm, I think its worth 80 billion in exports.
     
    AlphabetSoup likes this.
  5. robbie_p

    robbie_p Well-Known Member

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    I would cast my vote, but the choices seem very bullish, there are no options representing a slow decline, followed by a slow plateau, followed by a slow grind up?
     
    Empire, JL1, Silverson and 12 others like this.
  6. lynchy

    lynchy Well-Known Member

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    This

    You need to give all options otherwise your post simply comes across as a bull

     
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  7. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I am not in the bull camp:(
     
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  8. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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    When the truth comes out...as sky news is starting to report NOW....the accuracy of the coronavirus "test" is as accurate as a coin flip....

    & people understand they have lost money and jobs and whatever else...

    property won't be dropping 30%.
     
    Codie likes this.
  9. Biggbird

    Biggbird Well-Known Member

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    Option 5: none of the above
     
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  10. K974

    K974 Well-Known Member

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    same none of the above apply
    Various falls, and a various speeds of recovery

    some of the rubbish stock will take a long long time to recover of which there is huge amounts in this country , a lot of stuff will be higher in 24 months than it is now
     
  11. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    If it does, I might be forced out of retirement :D.
     
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  12. Fargo

    Fargo Well-Known Member

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    Ummm, Why do people waste time twisting things out of context then knitpick. If you could comprehend the link you posted you would understand he is the CEO of CBA and that he did give same data that showed some price fall could happen. He is not a doomsayer he sounds nothing like Steve Keen but you do with your sensationalism. He merely made a prediction that in a worst case scenario a 30% possibility fall for some house's was a possibility and that some people need to be aware of it. Price falls of some degree are parts of Melbourne or Sydney are a real possibility ! And it is Prudent for People in his position with the data to call it as it is.
     
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  13. Biggbird

    Biggbird Well-Known Member

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    To be fair, I actually took this post as being a little tongue in cheek... Mostly because I thought it was a little too silly to be otherwise! We'll see.
     
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  14. euro73

    euro73 Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Is there any other way he might approach a round of golf? Impersonally, perhaps?
     
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  15. Fargo

    Fargo Well-Known Member

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    He is actually more bullish than the reserve bank and other people, thinks unemployment will be under 10%, economic growth will be 6% and is taking a middle of the road position that HOUSE PRICES WILL FALL 11% over 3 years. But that no bank can be confident of what will happen Financial Review - Business, Finance and Investment News | afr.com
     
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  16. Peter_Tersteeg

    Peter_Tersteeg Mortgage Broker Business Member

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    I think the original source of this was some worst case modelling by APRA as part of their risk management.

    If the CBA believed this as an institutional level, they wouldn't still be approving 95% loans to maxed out first home buyers; which they definitely are still doing.
     
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  17. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    Stephen Kenn has been predicting this scale of correction for years. Maybe he's right.
     
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  18. MC1

    MC1 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe if he was ahead of the curve or a gladiator
     
  19. DAZ79

    DAZ79 Well-Known Member

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    Perth is down 20% plus since peak. That’s your touchstone.

    Perth fell while Sydney and Melbourne rose.

    Why is that? Because the effect of collapsing population numbers was more powerful than cheap money.

    What’s happening in the rest of the country right now? Population numbers being decimated and lots of existing supply ( like Perth in 2014)

    So, unless there is a massive turnaround in population numbers, property prices will fall just like they did in Perth.

    Happy to hear the counter argument.
     
  20. Marg4000

    Marg4000 Well-Known Member

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    None of the options given
     

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