Property Clock Again - Has Matusik got it Right?

Overview

There are four phases to the Matusik Property Clock:

• Recovery
• Upswing
• Downturn
• Stagnation

Recovery phase
This phase is mildly favourable to sellers.

Upswing phase
An upswing market is a seller’s market.
Downturn phase
A downturn market is often a buyer’s market.
Stagnation phase
A market in stagnation is a balanced market – where one can sell and buy at similar value.

Capital Cities as at late 2017.

Recovery phase

• Adelaide houses
• Hobart houses

Upturn phase

• Brisbane houses
• Canberra houses
• Hobart apartments
• Melbourne houses

Downturn phase

• Brisbane apartments
• Melbourne apartments
• Sydney houses and apartments

Stagnation phase

• Adelaide apartments
• Canberra apartments
• Darwin houses and apartments
• Perth houses and apartments

 

here is another one from HTW.

 

Thanks
This can be hit and miss I have found. But looking at this today does not seem too far off the mark.
MTR

 

agree,

 

can the clock stop for long period (e.g 10 years) for maintenance?

 

That's the stagnation phase. Some stagnation phases are protracted and could last 10 years.

Stagnation phase
A market in stagnation is a balanced market – where one can sell and buy at similar value.

 

I believe that is what we have with the high end product in Perth crashed in 2007.... 10 years later zip, prices have stalled....

 

again, you didn't get my point.

I meant could the clock stop for 10 years, for example at "Declining Market" phase?

 

Sure have.

 

Yes, you are right. I don't understand your point.

Do you mean that a market can be stuck in the "Declining market" phase for 10 years? As far as I know, yes it can.

EDIT: for example the Moranbah market has been declining since 2012. It has not stopped declining. The property clock is stuck in the "Declining market" phase

Moranbah Property Market, House Prices & Suburb Profile

 

Graph is too general and I think its 80% accurate

 

I would think that he got it wrong with Hobart houses, the market is super hot at the moment.

 

I

have found the HTW clocks to be a good overview to inform my thinking- are there any other regularly published Aus property clocks (in order to compare and contrast)?

 

Agreed, what I was going to say. Got a friend moving there from Launceston who missed on a number of houses between Moonah and Glenorchy. He just put an offer for a place in West Moonah. Unsighted. For a PPOR. Which apparently needed a fair bit of work :0 Looking at the vacancy rates across Hobart, it looks like it could be posed for an even better year. I'm predicting 15-20%. Kinda makes me regret not going there as I didn't believe in Hobart (I still don't!) but at least I got exposure via the parents.

 

That's the trouble with referring to the diagram as a "clock". It suggests an orderly and regular progression from one mark to the next.

In reality, it is vastly different.

The progression can stall for years (yes, 10+ years), or rapidly move from one point to the next, even skip a stage.

Property values can stagnate in an area for a decade, then double within two years.

The "clock" shows a gradual decline from peak of market to bottom of market. It gives the impression that there is time to make decisions to sell up. Many people got caught out in mining towns when property crashed virtually overnight, from the very top of the clock to the very bottom in a matter of days.
Marg

 

Real estate is one asset class where if you only look at statistical/graphical data to make decisions you can be greatly screwed . Extremely important to investigate qualitative data from direct sources in conjunction with other data. Corroboration of data has always been key for us.

 

No such thing as a property clock.....period. There are thousands of individual markets across Australia. Supply and demand principles apply....that's it.