Professional BS Detector

Interesting "vern"acular in the OP. I like your thinking

 

You are absolutely spot on it all relates to supply vs demand how a particular product will perform

 

It is Supply & Demand but land supply is limited. Whereas any building is kind of unlimited.

 

You can certainly have an oversupply of land. Just have to check out some of the larger developers and what they are selling in the burbs, they do not fly out the door, its dependent on the market/cycle.

Land and house packages do really well in a rising market, when the market goes bust no one is buying the land and developers are stuck with too much stock.

 

My pet hate is a professional BS artist who promotes a particular strategy but does not have a track record.
What is this person actually selling?

Its easy to get to the bottom of it, just have to ask the right questions.

MTR

 

My BS detector is highly tuned

 

They drop off list, with the list of included companies reviewed each quarter to rebalance the respective index.

You may have heard of the recent share price plunge in Slater in Gordon. This resulted in them getting booted:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20151204/pdf/433kj05ms81hyx.pdf

 

Needs to be, online

 

I'd have to say that you can have a paper loss and negative gearing without a shortfall. Things like depreciation can turn an IP that is cash flow positive to negative on your tax return. Eg. you are cash flow positive $5000 a year but have $9000 depreciation a year, you could then negative gear $4000.
A good accountant will always legitimately make the situation look worse in losses to improve your tax situation.

 

But in general I agree, things that we have grown up with our parents etc saying become ingrained in our brains as 'right'. Information that is repeated over and over and/or from trusted sources can seem legitimate.

 

I agree, but I also think most people will probably be sitting on real paper losses.

 

Love this
Success is about being a great ********TER

 

bump.

Professional BS detector out in full force......

like to add the recent professional spruikers - Real Wealth Australia and Dymphia Boholt to the list, anyone looking at their mentoring program.... what can I say "Buyer Beware"....

 

Or anyone's mentoring program for that matter

 

In the long term in aggregate stock prices rise as does the income from them. I call BS on your BS

Waits for the "what about Japan".

 

Yep, they think for themselves all right

 

In an index fund, say VAS for example (ASX300 index), a Onetel situation would result in loss being incurred on that company and removal of that company from the index when it no longer meets the rules. ie. when Ontel falls outside of the ASX300 index (which is ranked by market cap). So to answer your question, yes, index charts include losses, up to the point that the stock is removed from the index, which is only done for a cap weighted index when it no longer meets minimum capitalisation requirements to remain in the index....so invest in STW/VAS etc and you will get results that mirror the long term accumulation index charts, minus minuscule fees.

 

All spruikers should be sent the following link

Shareholder Letters

and the following statement "When you've read all of these, and if you still feel the same way, get back to me. If not, you know what to do."

 

More BS here....... sorting fact from fiction.



Reality – dwelling values always track real incomes over the long term

Truth – dwelling values have corrected at least seven times across Australia over the past 35 years and six times across south east Queensland.

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Spruik – renting is throwing away money, whereas interest paid to a bank is ‘investing’

Reality – buying to avoid paying ‘dead money’ only makes sense if you expect strong real price growth

Truth – renting makes economic sense, especially if you can secure a long term lease and invest the difference, between rent paid and mortgage costs, wisely.

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Spruik – renting is more expensive than buying

Reality – renting costs, unlike purchase prices – are determined by disposable incomes and the real need to live somewhere

Truth – rental growth is now falling; actual rents are likely to follow; it’s cheaper now to rent than buy (when you factor in all costs).

Rents reflect the real housing market – not the spruik or outside influences – and as a result, best reflect the market’s willingness to pay.

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Spruik – if housing is too expensive in one place, it doesn’t mean it is expensive everywhere i.e. inner city property might be overpriced, but outer suburbs or small towns aren’t

Reality – buying a property in any location will not protect you from price falls

Truth – there are many property markets – each is somewhat different – but they are influenced by the same fundamentals and these are interlinked.

It always comes down to what you buy and how much you pay, regardless of where the property is and when you bought it.

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Spruik – there is not enough land because of geography, government, planning and infrastructure provision etc.

Reality – there is no physical shortage of new housing, only a surplus of speculative demand and cheap debt

Truth – new housing supply is cyclical – it fluctuates between periods of over and undersupply – just like most things in the property market.

We are supplying too much of the wrong stock.

 

I prefer cashflow is king