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Previous property peaks of major cities

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Jaik2012, 19th Jul, 2015.

  1. Jaik2012

    Jaik2012 Active Member

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    Just thought of getting a snapshot of previous boom periods across major cities. From what I understand from the posts on this forum, Sydney's last peak was in year 2003. Similarly, how were the stats for Mel, Bris, Adelaide and Perth?

    Also, another thing I understood is that Sydney's boom is generally followed by Mel and Bris. What about Adelaide and Perth?
     
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  2. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I would ignore what happened in the past, history is not repeating itself.

    For example Sydney and Perth cycle started to rise around the same time late 2012, with Syd still strong, Perth peaked 2014.

    Melb Started to rise I think around 2013

    Brisbane showing sign of market moving now?

    No idea on Adelaide, perhaps someone can provide info on this

    MTR
     
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  3. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    I've always wanted better stats on the differentials (e.g. long term average between Brisbane vs. Sydney is 70%). I've heard rough numbers thrown around but I'd like something more concrete. Also as with many things in finance don't rely on absolute numbers. It's always the percentages you should be working off (e.g. you see on the news all the time X share went up $2, what on earth is that supposed to mean? At first you might be impressed, until you find out the share was $95. In many situations it's misleading.)
     
    Last edited: 20th Jul, 2015
  4. Hodor

    Hodor Well-Known Member

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    I thought I saw a graph of the differentials of Sydney vs other capitals on PC yesterday. Trying to find it now.
     
  5. jpcashflow

    jpcashflow Well-Known Member Business Member

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    I agree with MTR the past is the past, focus on what is happening today and what will happen tomorrow.

    Looking at states is to broad, different suburbs and types of homes perform better or worse among each state.
     
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  6. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

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    I've only really followed Sydney and Melbourne and now Brisbane's market cycles. I'm not across the history of other cap city cycles.

    Interestingly I do know that when Sydney moves, Central Coast and South Coast NSW tend to move not long after.

    Brisbane however can be fiercely independent of Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast movements.
     
  7. Tekoz

    Tekoz Well-Known Member

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    Do you mean like this one as example:
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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  9. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for that. I painstakingly copied all those numbers over (twice, a second time to cross check my numbers) and here's the trend. Presumably we are quite close to what it was like in 2003 right now, which means we're at the bottom. Very promising if true...

    [​IMG]
     
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  10. Tekoz

    Tekoz Well-Known Member

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    @jaybean : What's the past graph peformance got to do in predicting the future mate ?

    In the past, Australia in general has been helped by the resource boom, but now there is nothing shileding us from the glooming economic downturn strike.
     
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  11. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    Because economic cycles tend to work in, well, cycles. It's not a 100% perfect predictor I agree, but the fact that reality is indeed playing out exactly as those numbers would suggest is pretty telling, no? This is not a hypothetical - Brisbane is actually on the up.
     
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  12. Jaik2012

    Jaik2012 Active Member

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    Above graph indicates that Adelaide has been pretty consistent (no extreme movements). I understand Adelaide has not moved much in the recent past. However, wondering whether it will dip in case IR increases in 2016?
     
  13. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Don't get caught up in graphs seriously you will come unstuck too broad.

    Identify areas of interest that you believe are moving and start at ground level, number of listings, days on market, what is a balanced market for the area/suburb. This info can be sourced from agents, sometimes it's very easy to identify an area/suburb that is moving just by viewing realestate.com.

    If I followed charts I would be behind the 8 ball. It's like putting everything in the same basket, it's hit and miss.

    MTR:)
     
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  14. Reno Crazy

    Reno Crazy Well-Known Member

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    2010 was hot market especially for 1st home buyers in Melbourne, I follow west and north of CBD sub 500K some property hasn't even returned to 2010 prices, tanked around late 2011 - 2012 in my selected suburbs. East and property 1M -2M is currently on fire!!
    Different things causes different effects, 1st home owners grant that ended 30 June 2010 pushed up prices of small properties. The low interest rates now are making it affordable to upgrade to a better area/house hence 1M -2M doing well. Like the others have said, it is too hard to use the past to predict the future because there are too many variables.
     
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  15. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    There was no mining boom in the 80s or 90s, energy prices were high in the 70s but I don't think it can be compared to the 00's in terms of a boom. The 70s were characterized by high unemployment and high inflation due high oil prices
     
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  16. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    I've already been active in Brisbane since 2013. What I was really trying to do was find out whether there was any truth to this differential, or whether it was just an old wives tale. There are PLENTY of old wives tales in investing, so it's always good to check for yourself:) The results look so cyclical that I'm now 100% convinced it exists. The trend line is almost a perfect wave.
     
    Last edited: 20th Jul, 2015
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