Predictions for a Top in the S&P ASX 200

Heh @Ross36 I see you're on the Sunnie Coast. We're transitioning there over the next few years. Great spot, we're looking for small acreage around Woombye.

Sunshine Coast houses was an example with an early sales peak. This signaled there was still a long run up ahead.

 

On these charts for property the LHS axis is sales. The RHS axis which you can't see is $.

 

Will residential property prices commence increasing again.

The signal that this will occur was issued last year.

Property Market Future Recovery Signal Generated

 

Current chart for the DJIA is here:

World Indices Roundup - Jan/Feb 2018 Major Top?

 

My question was actually: based on your prediction should one sell in June or July, which is a month or so early in case the market falls one day before the day you predicted.

 

As time progresses I will be periodically updating the wave count for the XJO plus asking myself "Am I am wrong?". In other words, my strategy/plan is not static and is data dependent as it should be. In terms of property, our situation is likely different to yours. We want to relocate to the Sunshine Coast over next few years and not wait for five years (when we are sixty). You only have one life and you can't wait for everything to line up. This requires that we sell some IPs and pay CGT but it also gets some of our capital out of the market before mid 2020 enabling us to buy a rural block of land and start developing this.

Keep an eye on this thread. As we go forward I will post again but I'm not providing a running commentary on markets and remember I'm not providing financial advice.

 

Thanks for the superannuation info - that's great info to have as some of my relatives are around that age and I didn't realise that was possible.

It is a great spot, I'm up in Buderim but very tempted myself to get a bit of land out that way. @Nodrog would be the one to ask about the best spots, he's out Maleny way from what I gather.

Sorry to go off topic - no more property talk on a shares forum

Ross

 

Can you give us an Elliot wave count on this chart, thanks in advance
https://cuffelinks.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Return-on-investment-of-100k-Dec-1979-2017.jpg

 

This is fascinating... the whole thread but this in particular! (In a good way, please don't take the wrong context)

You are clearly a facts & data guy... is there any data that you can correlate in regards to this observation?

 

No. The Elliott Wave Principle predominantly applies to financial assets whose prices are driven by social mood e.g. equities, commodities including precious metals, currencies, bond prices/yields etc. and all indexes of these. These lend themselves to analysis because of the availability of data.

Goods/services and assets exist on a continuum. At one end there are goods/services whose prices are determined by economic principles (e.g. food - as prices go up demand goes down) and as you progress along the continuum the move is towards prices that are determined by financial principles. At the opposite extreme of the continuum are equities whose prices go up as demand for them goes up (the complete opposite of economic principles). Collectibles (e.g. art work, cars etc.) and residential property are towards the same end of the continuum as equities but not at the extreme end.

Elliott waves do show up in some social phenomena where there is a time aspect e.g. adult per capita tobacco consumption per year, union membership per year, personal savings rates, US attendance figures at baseball stadiums.

 

I think what you're really asking for is for proof. The effects of social mood are all around us. Don't get me started!

Want to understand why the The Beatles were so successful?
Want to understand why silver surpassed white as the most popular colour for a car's paint?
Want to understand why sugar consumption rises and falls?
Want to understand Tiger Woods's rise, fall and comeback?
Want to understand why and when the most severe terrorist attacks are likely to occur?
Want to understand David Bowie's success?

The field of study is called socionomics. Go here Socionomics Institute

Two great books are the The Socionomic Theory of Finance and Socionomic Studies of Society and Culture.

 

Fibonacci numbers can be found time and time again when considering the timing of significant highs and lows in financial markets. The table below shows a set of in-progress series of Fibonacci durations starting from the colonisation of Australia and significant turning points in the Australian stock market. They range from 244 years to 2 years. Nine of these durations point to a significant turning point occurring in the Australian stock market in 2021 ± 1 year.



Spans of 8, 21, 55 and 144 years do not point to a significant turning point occurring near 2021 ± 1 year. However, if share market indexes are presented in real terms this might point to a different year being a significant high or low when compared to the year in which the nominal value marked these points, so the duration of 55 years might be valid. However, a long-term chart of the Australian share market in real terms does not support this, with the peak of the market in real terms also occurring August 1968 (see chart below).



Given the progression of XJO in an ending diagonal the next significant turning point is expected to be a high, rather than a low. The question is, does 2021 ± 1 year represent a high, low or possibly both?

 

How do you get 6 figure income from super if it is has been in cash as you said in about feb 2018. I guess you were a little out about the ASX taking until August 2020 to top at 6596, it is already @ 6660.

 

Trading markets has taught me many lessons.
One of the most valuable is always take the opposite side of an Eliiot Waver, you have at least an 80% success rate.

 

It’s only a minor blip compared to a Nodrog Tsunami.

 

Nothing more than a few scribbles on a chart like drawing lambs on clouds and using rabbit breeding numbers which turned out to be wrong.