I’ve prepared an Elliott wave count for the S&P / ASX 200. One of the problems with labelling waves in the S&P ASX 200 is that it is very choppy. It reminds me of the period in the late 1990s where again the index was very choppy. I apologise for the charts as some wave labels overlap one another. I use the free version of tradingview and I don't know if you can lock text in its position. There are alternative wave counts (see below) , however, this (in the attached charts) is the most bearish. As I see it the index has formed an ending diagonal in the primary wave C (circle) position. This means the subordinate intermediate waves that make up primary wave C (circle) are being constrained within an upper trendline drawn through points intermediate wave (1)’s end and (3) and a lower trend line drawn through points intermediate wave (2)’s end and (4). In this scenario the index may either just exceed or just fail to meet its November 2007 high. In all cases ending diagonals occur in terminations points of larger patterns. As the primary and cycle degree trends have been up, the peak in 2020 would be followed by a reversal to the downside. I have made three forecasts. The first is for a top in 2020 6596.5 (August). The second and third are 6841.4 and 6968.8. The first is achieved by transposing the slope of various diagonals in the ending diagonal (see chart). The slope of a line drawn between points (C) B (circle) and (1) is almost the same as that drawn between (2) and (3). Using this slope a line can be drawn through (4) to predict where (5) will finish. The two other predictions are performed by applying Fibonacci ratios (see attached). A number of forecasts using Fibonacci ratios have already proved quite accurate (again see attached). One line of thinking supporting the bearish prediction is there’s plenty of evidence that points to social mood being very negative over an extended period of time in Australia despite the overall uptrend in the stock market since 2009. This evidence points to being supercyle wave (IV) i.e. a corrective fourth wave of the stock market at high wave degree where deep negative social mood pervades. A pervasive negative social mood leads to conflict, isolation, retaliation, disagreement etc. Examples supporting this include: The number of Royal Commissions occurring since 2007 is a good piece of evidence supporting this thinking List of Australian royal commissions - Wikipedia Such scandals emerge in periods of negative social mood. The political instability that has occurred at the national level since 2007. The passing of the same sex marriage legislation. This supports being in a negative mood trend as a tolerance for non-stereotypical genders arises during period of negative social mood. Even measures of consumer sentiment point to a decline in social mood Consumer sentiment declines to lowest point since house prices declined: Westpac The alternative wave count is shown as “Alt” line on the attached chart. The semi-bullish forecast is that it was minor wave 2 of intermediate wave (3) of primary wave 3 (circle) that finished on 24 December 2018, rather than intermediate wave (4) of primary wave C (circle) of cycle wave b that finished on 24 December 2018. Two predictions have been made for where the market could bottom after the reversal (891.9 and 1032.0). I realise just how ominous these are.