Predicted Growth

Discussion in 'Property Information Resources & Tools' started by Gruber, 21st Sep, 2015.

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  1. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Nicely done!

    Rising market and boom market are not the same though....:)


    Nonetheless, you and @monalisa can negotiate for me anytime! ;)

    I'm tired of pretending to be female on the phone to agents.
     
    Last edited: 22nd Sep, 2015
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  2. sumterrence

    sumterrence Well-Known Member

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    Did you also notice that a lot of people got burnt when they bought in QLD/Brisbane at 2008, prices either stay the same until late 2014 or some that paid well over priced need to bite the bullet to sell it with a capital lost.
     
  3. Property Twins

    Property Twins Mortgage Brokers & Buyers Agents Business Member

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    Hey Leo
    When do you reckon Sydney was booming? I reckon 2013 till recently...
     
  4. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    @MsAli Yeah I think the same as you. Its been kind of an extended boom phase..which could indicate we're in for a longer than average slough phase.
     
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  5. Property Twins

    Property Twins Mortgage Brokers & Buyers Agents Business Member

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    Then all of those purchases were done in a boom...the "bmv" ones.
     
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  6. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    I was reading something interesting about cycles the other day (a book @MTR recommended) and he suggested that each phase has 3 parts, so the boom phase has beginning, middle and end. he suggested it is still possible to get great deals at the beginning of a boom phase but harder in the middle or end. I found it interesting and when I thought about how it applied to my own experience and others it seemed to have accuracy.

    Well done again with your purchases! nicely done!
     
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  7. DanW

    DanW Well-Known Member

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    You might find more interesting the predictions that went wrong, probably learn more than the guys who made the predictions:
    http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=109831
     
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  8. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo midas touch

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    Interesting. What area is this for?
    Actually, my observations have me believe that cycles are pretty predictable. But then I have a bias for finding patterns. That's because they exist though.;)o_O
     
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  9. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    If you or anyone could predict growth, theyd all be rich.!!!!

    You can make educated guesses

    But even the experts get it wrong.......

    Corrrection! Most of the experts get it wrong
     
  10. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    I agree @TMNT.

    Personally, i believe banking on any 'predicted growth' is not the best approach, especially in the short term. I think its really important to buy in areas that:

    1. the Cycle is roughly right
    2. The suburb has great fundamental drivers and improving S/D indicators eg SOM reducing, Discounting reducing, 3 month a 1 month growth increasing, vacancy rates low, evidence of gentrification.
    3. Buy at good to great prices that do not reflect the actual value of the dwelling. Price and value are not the same.
    4. Buy something that has scope to add value in some way.

    If you can do all that, I believe you will have jewels in your portfolio and grow wealth much faster.

    That's my approach. Others will differ.
     
  11. Phantom

    Phantom Well-Known Member

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    Some stayed the same and some went down....after 2008.
     
  12. ZachAnsel

    ZachAnsel Well-Known Member

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    Expert economies said "oops I did it again"..

    They only need position and self claim expert to be able to publish predictions.
    Clearly you need more than text book
     
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  13. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    Maybe im old school but crediblity means everything to me

    These experts say the same and different garbage everytime.

    Half the time theyare righr half the tine they are wrong.

    If youre an expert. You need to get it right 99% of the time.

    If youre not in my eyes credbilitt is zero.

    There fore i dont even bother reading

    It seems in general society credbility means absolutely zero these days.

    I cringe for society
     
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  14. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

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    I'm with others on this one where you build a sound buying strategy that 'works' regardless of whatever boom/bust ebbs and flows may occur. Simple to say, hard to do (I know), but a strategy that detaches itself from boom/bust risk will likely perform better.
     
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  15. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    One thing that worries me a little, is when everyone is going to one place, like it is a safe haven, however if the recent economic trend continues, it will kill off growth everywhere for a while I would think. And agents up there openly say how Bris goes up, pulls back, goes nowhere etc.

    I think a lot of Sydney was driven by owners upgrading, moving and some owners investing as well, nearly everyone I know has moved, bought, built or done something, along with new buyers, other investors, migration, etc........ I do not know Brisbane well, but are the locals on the march upgrading etc too ? Or is it all Sydney money driving it ? Seems the latter to me, and when it slows or stops, then what ?
     
  16. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    its a bit of both. Im a resident here on the ground and am researching new investment opportunities, as are some of my colleagues at work.
    Undoubtedly, there is more interest from interstate investors however the fundamentals of Brisbane are strong enough to withstand a drop of interstate investors if that happens.
     
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