Predicted Growth

Are there any websites that show predicted growth rates over a 5-8 year period?

 

Do you care about the source? Any will do? I could probably whip up a blog for you pretty quickly if necessary. I'll call it "JayBean Says".

 

Personally, I wouldn't put much value on predicted growth rates. Its all nonsense imo.

Buy in areas which have great fundamentals, at good prices and with some add value potential (if that suits) and you'll blow away any 'predicted growth' rates. Just my opinion.

 

Easy, just take the past 5-8 years of growth in a particular suburb and apply it to the next 5-8 years...then in a tiny font with a * write: Past performance is not an indication of future results.

 

I wouldn't call projections nonsense... But there is a fair amount of variability between them.
Fully agree in your second point; that's usually the sure -fire way to attain growth.

 

Alright, alright, geez! it was just a question.
Right now I am looking at all sources of data. Its proving easy to decide what is rubbish and what isn't. I was just asking if this type of stuff was out there.

 

HI @JDP1. I know what you mean mate, and I agree with you the variability is great. I think its so great that for me, it renders its quite useless. In fact, I would go as far as to say its dangerous for newbies. I know a few people who bought in QLD last year, after reading some well known predictions report that said X area is expected to go up X amount. And they haven't grown barely. I don't think I've ever used predictions as part of my decision making process. I guess others might. But personally I just think its a bad idea.

 

http://www.residex.com.au/top-100-predictions-report

Use it with great caution. Focus on the fundamentals, growth drivers, gentrification, add value and buying really well.

 

I don't think many regulars pay much attention to these predictions . They're usually wrong .

When the market moves strongly , they all under predict , then they predict steady growth when the market goes sideways .

My prediction . ( with the disclaimer that Sydney and Melb may out perform in the short term ) , I expect Brisbane to be the best performing capital city in the next 5-7 years , though Adelaide may have good growth and out perform Brisbane , and if there's a change in the mining based economy , Darwin and Perth may do ok and outperform the rest ..... Hobart ... well

Cliff

 

Hobart? Ho-no!


Hoping Adelaide has some time as I'm not ready to buy there, I'll pay @D.T. a visit when i'm ready

 

I've been looking for an old API magazine article from around 2007 quoting Brisbane's growth over a 20 year period from about 1987 to 2007 from memory. The article pitched the idea that Brisbane was the best performer or 'Safest Bet' out of all the capital cities.
Looking back now it was a sign that it was fully valued at the time despite RP Data and BIS Shrapnel predicting future out performance.
The best way to evaluate this stuff is to look back at previous predictions, there usually wrong.

 

Here's a "fan chart" by the Bank of England, which shows a GDP growth prediction from late last year. The darkest band represents the most likely case, with the progressively lighter ones indicating possible outcomes.



There are two things to take-away here:

1. The British organisation with access to the best economic intelligence has a pretty vague idea of what's coming. By 2018 the economy could be roaring along at over 5% growth, or slipping back into recession. So anyone who claims that Sydney property will grow by exactly 7.18% over the next twelve years is being very delusional.
2. The level of certainty about past data is also rather suspect. I once heard it described that the Bank of England is three times as certain about the past as it is about the future.

I'd suggest taking a look at books like A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Most markets are unpredictable, but the way our brains work is that we ascribe order to things. Sure, it helped our ancestors survive on the African savannah 100,000 years ago, but seeing patterns everywhere can be counterproductive.

In short, something like Shadow's call of Sydney passing a million dollar median for houses was probably down to luck rather than an uncanny predictive ability. Then again, sometimes people do call it scarily right...

 

When I have looked around at a lot of this data, in smaller areas I found to to be wrong, and if taken literally, you would be up the creek without a paddle, or miss things.

 

The reality is we need all sorts of people. If everyone operated like a successful investor we would have a very hard time to do well. Let nature continue to be nature; )

 

Oh yeah, I am all for that.

 

Profit has always and will always be made doing slightly different to the norm

 

I agree.

And If we're talking about big profits, you gotta smash that norm.

 

I'm always very conservative in my forecast in capital gains and rental increases. I believe doing this ensures that your investment is still a good one even if the economy isn't going anywhere.

 

For me, the big ones are:
1. Buy below market value. usually this cant happen in boom times or 'favour seller' times, so the fact that you can get BMV is some confirmation that you didn't buy at the wrong time , to some extent,
2. Add value potential to manufacture equity (regardless of how the market is doing so your not reliant on organic growth in the short term)

Those two factors for me de-risks my purchases to the extent I'm not worried what the stats are saying or how much %age each week, months, quarter growth is going or not going, and all the other nonsense pundits put out.

Buy well.
Ability to manufacture equity.
=
Home run. cherk ching!

 

@monalisa and I bought 3 purchases that were BMV in a rising market