NSW Postcode 2560 - 2570

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by Piston_Broke, 2nd Aug, 2015.

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  1. Piston_Broke

    Piston_Broke Well-Known Member

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    After strong growth in the last 2 years a lot of projects are coming to market and the huge pipeline of development has now become viable and should mean significant population growth.
    Still there seem to be a few opportunities out there as the market is still very jittery.

    Personally i see another 20% next 2 yrs.
     
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  2. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    I thought we're talking a prediction of some 500 years later from the title of post.
     
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  3. Piston_Broke

    Piston_Broke Well-Known Member

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    Lol. In the yr 2560 I might be old enough to retire.

    In the meantime Campbelltown are is still going through strong growth which most likely keep going for a few more years.
    There are still reasonable opportunities around, and since there is talk of the property market tanking, there's a few sellers happy to sell.
    Even some new developers are selling as fast as they can as they think the market has peaked.

    I'm more than happy as i still see a 7 figure growth keep getting bigger.

    2012-13 saw rents increases and prices stagnant, now prices have jumped but rents are not much different.
    What does this mean? It's "adding value" season.
     
  4. Piston_Broke

    Piston_Broke Well-Known Member

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    Fortunately I was wrong... and very happy :cool:
    The stats are start catching up and it might it appear that there is no growth left, but I still see steady growth for the next 5 yrs as the market players adjust.
     
  5. Piston_Broke

    Piston_Broke Well-Known Member

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    I decided to some research today into pricing trends and came up with some conclusions.

    - My IPs and many properties in 2560 have increased around 40-60% in the last 3 years or so. Most of which happened over 2 years.

    - Newer properties have not increased as much.
    - Those who bought land and built seem to have done better than buying H+L package

    - Most houses are now above the long term growth line, so i don't there is much chance of hi growth next few years if not any at all.
    This will see a lot of property passed in at auction and longer listing times which does not mean a "crash" as many inexperienced people on this forum seem to believe.
    It just means sellers who where asking too much get a price reality check.

    The general economy does seem much improved and that should also dampen price growth.

    The RBA is very afraid of raising interest as LVRs are still not low enough to give banks a security margin against possible default.
    This may happen 2018, though the world seem to be following Japan which would mean 20 yrs of low rates. And that makes me doubt that rates will increase significantly any time soon.


    And here is what was happening in Mar 2002

    1.jpg
    2.jpg
     
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  6. eletronic_exp0430

    eletronic_exp0430 Well-Known Member

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    ^ I should have snapped up each and every single one of those homes. I'd be retired right now. LOL
     
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  7. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    Would you say it doubled in those suburbs if you had/held then in the last 5-7years?
     
  8. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    Yes. I have one in the area bought in 2012 for a price that was slightly more than what houses were selling for in 2002.

    It's now worth twice what I paid, if not more.
     
  9. eletronic_exp0430

    eletronic_exp0430 Well-Known Member

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    It would have more than doubled I'd say
     
  10. Piston_Broke

    Piston_Broke Well-Known Member

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    Caught up with a mate today who i know has moved a few times last few years.

    He lived in the 2170 postcode, was thinking of moving and went prices increased he sold in 2014 after 6 or 7yrs.
    Bought land built a house in a new 2570 suburb. After 6 mths house next door sells, so he thinks "if I get that I'd sell too!". 2 mth later sold for approx 250k more than costs.
    He figures "I can build again for the same cost, and avoid some mistakes".

    He buys a few kms down the road, builds then after 6 mths sees crazy prices and thinks the same again. Another ~240k on top of costs.

    I said "sounds like a good job". He replied the wife made him promise to keep the next ppor for at least 10yrs.

    He doesn't in the least think himself as an RE investor, flipper or builder.
    When queried he just shrugged and said "They offered a great price, so i took it".
    So without trying much in 4 yrs he's made a pre tax profit of around 400K.

    That's what happens in a bull market. Boom Boom
     
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  11. hash_investor

    hash_investor Well-Known Member

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    And you believe his story?? Ok...
     
  12. Piston_Broke

    Piston_Broke Well-Known Member

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  13. Piston_Broke

    Piston_Broke Well-Known Member

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    Did a little research last few days and I just don't see much downside for 2560.
    There is an occasional property that was overpriced but i see stabilising with maybe some slight CG over the next few years.

    On the expensive side in the area are the new land releases though I don't think these will come on the market any time soon.
    Same happened in the previous new burbs a few years ago where values were often 50 to 100k below build cost, but owner occupiers had no intention of selling so they rarely came to market.

    What I do see is a dramatic rent increase way over CPI next 5 yrs in 2560.
     
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  14. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    I am leaving my lease on periodic, even I have to put it on lease I will only do 6 months. This way I can increase $10 per every 6 mo, rather the hit tenants with $20 at the end of 12mo. Constructions down, property market softening...I can see a rental market boom. in the next 3-5 years.
     
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  15. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    I wonder which is more annoying - $10 every 6 months or $20 every yr. I reckon the former is a tad more worrying (for the tenant).
     
  16. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    True that too, but I find it hard for tenant to cop $20, say from a $400 week rent.

    For the western sydney I have been increasing $10 every 12 months for the last 3 years....wondering everyone is doing the same?
     
  17. eletronic_exp0430

    eletronic_exp0430 Well-Known Member

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    Yep same here. Over the last 12 months its been as below

    Increased $15 for my St Marys property.
    $10 at Mt Druitt and $10 in Colyton.

    Is Parramatta, Auburn and Wentworth Point included?

    If so then

    Parra unit went up $20
    Auburn I didnt increase it
    Wentworth Point went up $15.

    All the others I didnt increase within the last 12 months in Sydney
     
    Last edited: 23rd Aug, 2017
  18. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    As far as MATHEMATICAL FUNDAMENTALS go, I reckon rents in Sydney need to go up 20-30% (if not more) over the next few years to justify current property values. OR, house prices need to fall. Which is more likely?
     
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  19. Biz

    Biz Well-Known Member

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    A bit from column A and a bit from column B.
     
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