Post Royal Commission Property Prices

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by standtall, 9th Feb, 2019.

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  1. JohnPropChat

    JohnPropChat Well-Known Member

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    Will you reimburse if someone buys now and prices go down further? Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

    In any case, you seem to have strong opinions on how the market will behave regardless of clear current trend. Good for you.
     
  2. virgo

    virgo Well-Known Member

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    Knock knock....what about those pesky off the plan apartments?

    Does no one think they will affect house prices??:eek:
     
  3. JohnPropChat

    JohnPropChat Well-Known Member

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    Oversupply of housing stock will put downward pressure on rents. When yields suffer, prices will have an effect too. By how much is anyone's guess.
     
  4. virgo

    virgo Well-Known Member

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    Bingo!
     
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  5. PMC Property

    PMC Property Sydney, Brisbane, Newcastle, Toowoomba Business Member

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    As I was once told by a very smart guy who trades CFDs and options for a living, never trade against the trend. A lot of people got burned during the GFC buying shares on short term recoveries when the trend was still down. Is property different? No, that’s why we all look at stats in the first place. You can’t measure market performance on anecdotal reports over even a few weekends.

    There are a lot of valid points on this thread but I would be wary of short term spikes on sentiment. Unless the trend reverses over a period of time (and property is like trading a daily CFD chart) then for now, the trend is down and Investors would be brave to jump in.

    Home buyers have other motivations so buy to suit your lifestyle and life-goals.

    - Andrew
     
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  6. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Realestate.com.au is reporting 69% clearance for Sydney this week with a volume of 500.

    This is a great clearance rate suggesting recovery is now underway.
     
  7. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Mate, realestate.com.au are new to reporting clearance results and their figures are always bs.

    Domain is reporting 56% preliminary. But around 40% are unreported! Re agents are just not reporting unsuccessful auctions.

    437 auctions, 285 reported. 197 sold. 66 “withdrawn”.

    Sydney Real Estate Auction Results for 16th February 2019

    197 sold out of 437 doesn’t suggest a recovery to me.
     
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  8. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    That appears to be after 66 withdrawn, so more like 197 sold of 500.
     
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  9. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

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    Auction stats are one of the most manipulated stats out there.

    Agents should be thrown in jail for all the fraud they propagate.
     
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  10. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Royal commission into realestate agents? hehe

    Re this weeks "results" from AMP's From Shane Oliver:
    Prelim Domain auction clearances: Syd 56% (=final ~52%,last wk 53%). Mel 54% (=final ~47%, last wk 50%). Still weak & Feb usually sees a seasonal bounce versus Dec of +10% in Syd & +6% in Mel (av last 8 yrs). Sales vols for Feb so far are -58%yoy in Syd & -73%yoy in Mel
     
  11. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Definitely the best it's been in.the last 6 months.

    This week is also better than it's been.

    Let's hope their is stabilisation in the market.
     
  12. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    The acquire their data same way for years and years.

    2 years ago it was in 80s now it's in the 40s.

    If you cant draw.some conclusion from that we'll.....


    It's actually irrelevant to the number.
    But seeing it fall 50% from peak.

    Also the fact agents don't report is again a measure of the market sentiment.

    Low reported clearance rate
    Agents with holding prices
    40% clearance rates


    WIth boots on the ground and auction results are all a gauge ,a pulse of the market.


    Last two weeks in Sydney have been better.and you ask people in the field they said it was busier two weeks. So their is a correlation.
     
  13. euro73

    euro73 Well-Known Member Business Member

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    The problem with calling a recovery is that loan data , new housing starts Etc are still HORRIBLE Refinance volumes are down. O/occ volumes are down. INV volumes were already down and remain down. Decline rates remain UP. Mortgage aggregators that I know will tell you volumes haven’t suddenly recovered . So unless people are buying with cash , I call BS on any recovery. Auction clearance rates only have to be better than miserable to create the illusion of a recovery ... because they are coming off a low , sub 50% base . When we see 2-3 months of 60%+ clearance rates and improving mortgage volumes and data , maybe then a case can be made ....
     
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  14. Rex

    Rex Well-Known Member

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    Reality is probably sinking in for vendors, that they're not going to get the result they want from an auction, and a lot of those with unrealistic price expectation are now choosing not to bother auctioning. If those properties with a better prospect of success and/or realistic vendors still go to auction, you get higher clearance rates. Clearance rates for Sydney might be up the last couple of weeks but have sales volume actually materially increased?