Post Royal Commission Property Prices

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by standtall, 9th Feb, 2019.

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  1. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Does anyone have on the ground reports from opens today? Bank shares positively responding to recommendations could also encourage investors/buyers sitting on the sidelines to get back in the market. Auction results later today will give some indication as well.

    Any signs of increasing crowds at the opens?
     
  2. Car tart

    Car tart Well-Known Member

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    Well today has seen a blinder of a return for buyers in NW Sydney.
    I’m looking for an investment with a 4 car garage. Lease the house keep the garage for cars. Over 30 groups went through in a 30 minute period. This town house is at least $40k over the market and yet there was a queue.
    My neighbour in West Pennant Hills has his home for sale and over 50 groups have seen it in the first week. This suburb was one of the worst hit by a correction, yet this $2.5 million home is priced pre correction and I can barely walk out my door with the flow of people.

    It may be just anecdotes, or a nice summers day, but I can’t see any property as cheap as it was 3 months ago.

    Best example was the $1.1 million home lambasted on this site in westmore st WPH. Many said worth $800k, seems it was the cheapest quality home sale in this area.

    Or is this just a dead cat bounce?
     
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  3. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    50 groups in WPH is extra ordinary - I live in the area and 50 groups were a norm in 2015-16 but activity dropped massively post royal commission.
     
  4. Rolf Latham

    Rolf Latham Inciteful (sic) Staff Member Business Plus Member

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    Perhaps people feel we will soon be back the 10 x LTI ratios :), since the markets didnt bat an eye lid at the content of the report

    ta
    rolf
     
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  5. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps not everyone needs a loan to buy real estate .. I imagine there will be a lot of people sitting on the sidelines who will be rushing to buy now that royal commission uncertainty is over
     
  6. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Bayside, Melbourne inspections have been quiet. Agents from last year are still calling. The odd unit or townhome in a cracker location will sell but homes and anything past 1.5m seem to be languishing unless A+
     
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  7. Duck1234

    Duck1234 Well-Known Member

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    I was at Chatswood. Lots of people.
     
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  8. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Very small sample for today.
    But 66% un-adjusted
    This would be the best in 6 months
     
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  9. Rex

    Rex Well-Known Member

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    Nearly all the Sydney and Melbourne auctions featured on the YourMoney channel today sold. By far the best results I've seen from casually watching the show off and on for the last few months. Could just be a fluke though if a bunch of good properties and realistic vendors happened to be featured this week.
     
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  10. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    True but definitely an improvement over last few months. If 50%+ clearance continues for next 2-3 weeks, it will likely mean things are turning for good.

    I think a lot of people just came out to see interest levels post royal commission and some of those will now try to get in the market quickly at floor prices fearing competition might push the prices back into higher levels. Fear of missing out will definitely build but there are also loads of sellers sitting on sidelines and waiting for things to improve!
     
  11. Rolf Latham

    Rolf Latham Inciteful (sic) Staff Member Business Plus Member

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    The general public have no interest or specific knowledge of the outcomes of the RC, By that I mean most people.

    if they did, we would not be having this post :)

    if they had any interest, there would be an uproar as to the expected longer term outcomes, and the highly contentious terms of reference, and data used to come to the " pure conclusions"

    ta
    rolf
     
  12. PMC Property

    PMC Property Sydney, Brisbane, Newcastle, Toowoomba Business Member

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    One of my brother's many roles is auctioneer for a very large RE firm on the lower north shore in Sydney and he reported a huge difference in registered bidders and general attendance on Saturday (9th). It could be just a coincidence but he said it was marked.

    - Andrew
     
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  13. Ghoti

    Ghoti Well-Known Member

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    Auction clearance rate in Melbourne up ~7% this weeked, but "one swallow does not a summer make".

    Lets wait a few weeks and see what transpires.
     
  14. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    It appears that interest levels in Sydney surely went up on the weekend. It makes me think that Sydney market is only partly driven by credit and there is a lot of influence from cash investors who are still interested in Sydney despite extremely poor yields.

    Apparently, no such luck for Brisbane - a fairly bad auction weekend and anecdotal reports are lacking as well.
     
  15. Triton

    Triton Well-Known Member

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  16. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Unreported and withdrawn are a real problem.

    Sydney had 57% clearance but 30% unreported! It's hard to imagine the results will settle above 50% once the more results come in on thursday.

    Almost half as many houses sold as same week last year and median sales price down 300k for same week last year. I'm guessing this indicates some price capitulation but probably more so just that the lower end of the market, FHB etc, is seeing more a lot more activity than the mid/top?
     
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  17. Redom

    Redom Finance Strategist Business Plus Member

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    Probably a bit too early to draw conclusions from this data - if initial clearance rates are near 60% for 4-5 weeks in a row, there'd be a clearer conclusions to draw & actual price data will come out a couple months later to support clearance rates (lead indicator).
     
  18. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Bureau of statistics.
    Is showing some really large downturn in Approval. Its a good thing to me because the oversupply will slow down over the course of the next 36 months. Rapid increase in apartment finishes have caused an oversupply and very low yield.

    So at least market forces(apra induced ) will slow down this dropping in the yield curve.

    Extract from news online.

    Approvals

    Shocking building approval figures have just landed. Seasonally adjusted, total dwelling approvals are down 8.4 per cent between November and December, but apartment approvals are down 18.8 per cent compared to the same period in 2017.

    Compared to December 2017, the apartment approvals are down 38 per cent to 4,712 and house approvals are down 11.3 per cent to 9,134. The seasonally adjusted value of total building approvals fell 7.5 per cent.
     
  19. JohnPropChat

    JohnPropChat Well-Known Member

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    A cousin had to drop the rent by 8% in western sydney when the rental contract was renewed a couple of weeks ago. Street front townhouse less than 18 months old, no issues whatsoever - tenants simply have more choice now.

    When yields start to suffer, the prices will follow.
     
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  20. andrew_t

    andrew_t Well-Known Member

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